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Research ties long COVID in kids to chronic school absenteeism, learning problems

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News brief

Teen with long COVID Joice Kelly / Unsplash

A large Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study suggests that US school-aged children diagnosed as having long COVID are at 2.5 times the risk of related chronic absenteeism compared with those without the condition. 

The study, published last week in Emerging Infectious Diseases, also found double the prevalence of memory impairment, problems concentrating, and learning difficulties in this group.

The researchers used data from the 2022 and 2023 US National Health Interview Surveys to evaluate functional limitations and illness-related chronic absenteeism in a nationally representative sample of 11,057 children aged 5 to 17 years who ever or never had long COVID. 

School accommodations may be needed

The analysis revealed that roughly 1.4% of children had long COVID at one time, and older children and girls were disproportionately affected. Relative to children who never had long COVID, those who had the condition had a higher prevalence of functional limitations in five of six functional domains. 

School accommodations, such as reduced workload and rest periods that are recommended for other conditions affecting cognitive and academic functioning, such as concussion or ADHD [attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder], could be options to improve outcomes.

Children who had long COVID had about twice the rate of problems with memory (18.3% vs 8.6%), concentration (14.3% vs 7.7%), and learning (19.8% vs 10.4%). This group also had a higher rate of difficulty making friends (18.4% vs 11.3%). 

They also had more challenges in accepting changes in routine (37.8% vs 23.0%). In the psychosocial domain, the long-COVID group had a higher prevalence of anxiety (31.3% vs 17.5%) and depression (18.9% vs 6.2%).

Among children who had long COVID, 10.7% missed more than 30 days of school for health reasons in the year before the survey, and 13.9% missed more than 18 days. In the adjusted multivariable model accounting for race and Hispanic ethnicity and parental education level, long COVID was linked to 2.5 times the likelihood of illness-related chronic absenteeism.

“School accommodations, such as reduced workload and rest periods that are recommended for other conditions affecting cognitive and academic functioning, such as concussion or ADHD [attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder], could be options to improve outcomes,” the authors wrote. 

Utah measles total rises to 216; CDC deputy director says losing elimination status ‘cost of doing business’

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measles Natalya Maisheva / iStock

Utah has reported six new measles cases this week, raising state totals in the current outbreak to 216. Of those, 154 cases are in the Southwest Utah health district, which is still battling a cross-border outbreak along with Mohave County, Arizona. 

Arizona officials have recorded 12 measles cases so far in 2026, eight of which are in Mohave County. Pima and Maricopa counters each have a case, and Pinal County has two cases. 

Elsewhere, two residents younger than five years old have tested positive for measles in Jessamine County, Kentucky, the first cases of the year. Kentucky had 13 confirmed measles cases in 2025.

Abraham erroneously links measles status to international travel

Yesterday, Ralph Abraham, MD, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s  principal deputy director, said during a press conference that the United States losing its measles elimination status is the “cost of doing business,” suggesting the loss will be due to imported measles cases from international travel.

Measles elimination status does not hinge on imported cases, but rather sustained transmission of virus chains within one country for 12 months or more. Abraham, a doctor and the former Louisiana surgeon general, said he did not think the loss of US measles elimination status was a big deal. 

We have these communities that choose to be unvaccinated. That's their personal freedom

“We have these communities that choose to be unvaccinated. That's their personal freedom,” Abraham said. “You know, the president, the secretary, we talk all the time about religious freedom, health freedom, personal freedom, and I think we have to respect those communities that choose to go a somewhat of a different route.”

Earlier this week the Pan American Health Organization announced it would review the measles status of the United States during an April meeting. The US has seen a significant spike in measles activity in the last year, most currently in a growing outbreak in South Carolina that has resulted in more than 600 cases. 

Analysis suggests nirsevimab cuts infant RSV hospitalizations 83%

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PeopleImages / iStock

A national hospital-based surveillance study from Australia found that the long-acting monoclonal antibody nirsevimab reduced respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-related hospitalizations in infants under 12 months by over 80% during the country’s 2024 RSV season. The findings were published last week in Eurosurveillance.

Led by researchers from The Kids Research Institute Australia in Perth, the team analyzed data from nearly 4,000 children and adults hospitalized with RSV from April to December 2024 at 22 hospitals throughout Australia. Infants younger than 12 months accounted for nearly 40% of cases. Of all hospitalized patients, 6.6% required admission to intensive care or high-dependency units and of those, 6.1% were children.

Severe disease was most common among infants born prematurely, those with cardiac or neurologic conditions or genetic or metabolic disorders, and First Nations children. The in-hospital mortality rate was low (0.1%) among children, but reached 4.1% among adults.

Population-based vs risk-based approaches

In 2024, immunization strategies for young children across Australia varied by jurisdiction. Two states, Western Australia and Queensland, implemented population-wide infant immunization programs using nirsevimab. The rest of the country relied on targeted, risk-based vaccination programs. 

In Western Australia and Queensland, nirsevimab effectiveness against RSV hospitalization in infants under 12 months was 83.1%. Western Australia saw a 50% reduction in hospitalized RSV cases in those younger than 12 months, and hospitalization rates fell by a similar amount in Queensland for those aged 6 months and younger. Total RSV cases in Western Australia and Queensland were significantly lower than in the rest of the country. 

Despite some limitations, including reliance on self-reported information from some populations and the possibility of underreporting of immunization status, the findings “demonstrate the effectiveness of nirsevimab in jurisdictions providing population-wide programmes in 2024,” write the authors. 

Study highlights impact of gender dynamics on antibiotic use

News brief

Female hand with bottle of pills Viorel Kurnosov / iStock

Analysis of more than two decades’ worth of data from 70 countries indicates that gender inequalities influence antibiotic consumption patterns, researchers reported yesterday in the Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy.

For the study, a team led by researchers from the One Health Trust analyzed IQVIA MIDAS data on yearly antibiotic consumption from 70 countries from 2000 through 2002. To assess the influence of gender inequalities, they used four indicators—proportion of women with secondary or higher education, female-to-male labor force participation (FMLP) ratio, proportion of women in parliament, and share of female population—and estimated within-country associations between these indicators and overall antibiotic consumption, controlling for income, education, health care access, health spending, and demographics.

Overall average antibiotic consumption was 19.13 defined daily doses (DDDs) per 1,000 population, with wide variations observed across the 70 countries. Analysis of the relationship between antibiotic consumption and the four gender inequality indicators showed that a one-percentage-point increase in the proportion of women with secondary or higher education was associated with a 0.15 DDD reduction in antibiotic consumption. And a 0.1-unit increase in the FMLP ratio was associated with a 2.45 DDD reduction, while a one-percentage-point increase in the female population share raised antibiotic consumption by an estimated 2.3 DDD. 

Women’s parliamentary representation was not associated with antibiotic consumption.

Higher education, workforce participation enhance health literacy

The study authors say the findings highlight gender dynamics as a key social determinant of susceptibility to antimicrobial resistance (AMR).

“Higher education among women likely enhances health literacy, fosters preventive practices such as antenatal care, and promotes rational antibiotic use within households,” they wrote. “Similarly, a higher FMLFP ratio reflects reduced gender inequity and improvements in women’s economic and health empowerment.”

Conversely, they add, the link between a larger female population and higher antibiotic use is likely related to increased health care needs related to pregnancy, urinary tract infections, and longer female life expectancy.

“Overall, this study calls for a multifaceted approach that leverages gender indicators to promote equitable healthcare access, rational antibiotic use, and effective AMR mitigation,” they concluded.

CDC warns about New World screwworm just across the border in Mexico

News brief

fly Judy Gallagher/Wikimedia Commons

Yesterday the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a Health Alert Network (HAN) advisory on recent animal cases of New World screwworm (NWS) in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, which shares a border with Texas. 

“No NWS infestations related to this outbreak have been identified in people or animals in the United States as of January 20, 2026. However, given the potential for geographic spread, CDC is issuing this Health Advisory to increase awareness of the outbreak,” the CDC said.

NWS myiasis (maggot infestation) is transmitted when parasitic flies lay eggs in wounds or in other body cavities, such as the nose, ears, eyes, or mouth. Cattle and horses are typically infected, but flies can also lay eggs on people and other warm-blooded animals. If untreated, infections can be deadly in humans. 

Clinicians should consider travel history

As of yesterday, Central America and Mexico have tracked 1,190 cases and seven deaths in people in an ongoing outbreak. Tamaulipas currently has eight active animal cases.

The United States has previously eradicated NWS through releasing sterile male flies to mate with the female NWS fly, which is a type of blowfly. The United States will use that tactic again if NWS is reintroduced in Texas or elsewhere, the CDC said. Last year, the United States did see a travel-related case in Maryland, the country's first human case in 50 years. 

For clinicians, the CDC recommends considering a diagnosis of NWS in people who present with visible egg masses in wounds or orifices, and other symptoms in anyone who has recently traveled to an area where NWS is present. 

There have not been any studies to prove that any specific medication is useful in treatment in humans.

“The treatment of NWS in humans is removal of all eggs and larvae, which might require surgical extraction if the larvae are embedded deeply into tissues,” the CDC said. “There have not been any studies to prove that any specific medication is useful in treatment in humans.”

Quick takes: Death toll from USAID cuts, withdrawal of chikungunya vaccine, funding for updated Ebola vaccine

News brief

  • One year after the Trump administration began its dismantling of USAID, a model that tracks the impact of USAID funding cuts on global disease prevention programs estimates that more than 762,000 people have died as a result of those cuts, including more than 500,000 children. According to ImpactCounter, a project built to model the effect on morbidity and mortality from the 90-day USAID funding pause announced on January 20, 2025, cuts to funding for the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) have had the largest impact, resulting in more than 158,000 adult deaths and 16,000 child deaths. Terminated USAID funding has also resulted in more than 164,000 additional child deaths from pneumonia, 125,000 additional child deaths from diarrhea, 70,000 additional adult and child deaths from malaria, and 48,000 additional adult and child deaths from tuberculosis.
  • French vaccine company Valneva said earlier this week that it’s pulling its chikungunya vaccine from the US market. In a January 19 press release, the company said it has decided to voluntarily withdraw the biologics license application and Investigational New Drug (IND) application for Ixchiq, its live-attenuated chikungunya vaccine, following suspension of the license by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in August 2025 over safety concerns. The company said it had been waiting to hear from the FDA on its formal response to the vaccine license suspension, which was linked to reports of severe adverse events in older recipients of the vaccine, but was recently informed by the agency that the IND was now on clinical hold pending investigation of a newly reported serious adverse event.
  • The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) yesterday announced a $30 million investment to make Merck’s Ebola vaccine cheaper to make and more accessible. The investment aims to update the manufacturing process for the vaccine, which was developed during the 2014-2016 West African Ebola outbreak, to make it easier and cheaper to produce at scale and enable it to be stored in a regular refrigerator, which in turn could make it easier to deploy in outbreak settings. The vaccine currently must be stored in freezers at ultra-low temperatures. 

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Higher rates of concussion following COVID-19 infection in high school athletes - PubMed

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Objective: To compare concussion rates (CRs) over one academic year in high school athletes with and without a COVID-19 infection prior to concussion.

Methods: Illness and concussion were prospectively reported for male and female high school athletes across six states over one academic year in the Players Health Rehab surveillance system. Concussion was truncated to 60 days following recovery and return to sport from COVID-19. CRs were estimated per 1000 athletes per academic year and stratified by those who tested positive for COVID-19 infection (with COVID-19) and those who did not (no COVID-19). Poisson regression analyses estimated rate ratio (RR) of concussion controlling for state, gender and an offset of the log athlete participation (with COVID-19 and no COVID-19).

Results: Of 72 522 athletes, 430 COVID-19 infections and 1273 concussions were reported. The CR was greater in athletes who reported COVID-19 (CR=74.4/1000 athletes/year, 95% CI 49.6 to 99.3) compared with those who did not (CR=17.2, 95% CI 16.3 to 18.2). Athletes with recent COVID-19 had a threefold higher rate of concussion (RR=3.1, 95% CI 2.0 to 4.7).

Conclusion: Athletes returning from COVID-19 had higher CRs than those who did not experience COVID-19. This may be related to ongoing COVID-19 sequelae or deconditioning related to reduced training and competition load during the illness and when returning to sport. Further research is needed to understand the association of recent COVID-19 infection and concussion in order to inform preventive strategies.

Keywords: Neurology.

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Canary in the Coal Mine: Long Covid in Fiction

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The ongoing pandemic is affecting authors just as it's affecting everyone else. We’re not supposed to talk about it, and we’re treated with disdain if we take precautions to prevent infection. Just the same, authors are not supposed to write about it.

Lisa Butts

10 min read

Drawing of a black silhouette of a bird perched on a thermometer. Behind, abstract yellow shapes on a charcoal-smudged white background.

I was anticipating the release of Will There Ever Be Another You (2025) by Patricia Lockwood because I love her work but also because I feel a sense of relief anytime I encounter a discussion of the Covid-19 pandemic in this era of collective forgetting. Lockwood's autofictional novel centers on a writer who is suffering chronic physical and neurological symptoms weeks and months after contracting Covid during the early stages of the global pandemic, as Lockwood did, and as she wrote about in a more straightforward way for July 2020 publication in the London Review of Books.

Recent research suggests that more than one-third of people who contract Covid-19 experience Long Covid. Long Covid is a loose medical term applied to instances where a person has ongoing symptoms for three months or more after infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus (Covid-19). According to the CDC, a person is more likely to develop Long Covid if they have a particularly severe infection, if they have not been vaccinated against Covid-19, or if they have an underlying health condition. Older people, women, Black people, and Hispanic and Latinx people have also demonstrated a higher likelihood of contracting Long Covid. But it can happen to anyone.

According to a 2023 study by the National Institutes of Health, symptoms of Long Covid can include fatigue, shortness of breath, fever, cognitive impairment (aka “brain fog”), and sleep disturbances, among others. Brain fog is one of the most common symptoms reported, and it is one of the symptoms Lockwood writes about in Will There Ever Be Another You. The participants in the NIH study (most of whom had “mild” symptoms after infection) were found to have dysfunction in their immune and autonomic nervous systems. Other studies have found that many people with Long Covid report trouble with memory, paying attention, intellectual processing, and executive function. Up to 26% report issues with sleep, predominantly insomnia. In many cases Long Covid patients develop mood/mental health issues like depression and anxiety; for those who were already suffering from a mood or mental health disorder, many report a worsening of symptoms.

In the LRB essay, Lockwood writes:

“During a telehealth appointment, I explained to a different blurry doctor that after three months I was still experiencing intermittent symptoms: low-grade fever and difficulty breathing, mysterious arthritic nodules that had developed all over my hands, and for three weeks an almost total numbness in my legs, feet, arms and face. I was aphasic, stumbling in my speech, transposing syllables, choosing the wrong nouns entirely. Some of the delusions I had developed during the most severe phase of illness persisted: that my vision was a picture that had been pasted in front of my eyes, that my floorboards, creaking with the expansive spring humidity, were going to fall through. Hours, days had fallen out of my memory like chunks of plaster.”

Viruses seek to reproduce, to spread, to continue their existence by means of infection after infection. I have often wondered if the brain fog reported by many as a symptom—both of a single, acute infection and of Long Covid—is an evolutionary preservation tactic for the virus. Those experiencing brain fog and other neurological effects might have difficulty grasping the science of how the virus spreads, or remembering the details. They might develop a sense of apathy about reinfection, assuming that what they are already experiencing is as bad as it could get and feeling too tired and disoriented to do further research, especially when everyone around them is continuing to live like there is nothing to worry about. Research has demonstrated that Covid-19 can affect the brain’s frontal lobe, and possibly even targets it. Scientists have discovered an increase in concussions in high school athletes since the pandemic began (with evidence pointing to a link to Covid infection), an indication that infection could reduce inhibitions and make people more aggressive. Studies have shown not just cognitive difficulties in people with Long Covid, but also problems with emotional regulation. It’s a trope from a zombie apocalypse show—once you are infected you lose the power to protect yourself and others from reinfection.

Lockwood writes of becoming paranoid, believing that her husband, who had also contracted the virus, was faking his cough. She also experienced confusion and memory loss: “One day I realised I couldn’t remember my phone number, another that I couldn’t remember my brother’s middle name. But the most stubborn fact seemed to be that I had forgotten how to read.” For a writer, this is potentially devastating, and Will There Ever Be Another You explores with sensitivity and humor the repercussions of the neurological effects which, fortunately, for Lockwood, did eventually subside.

There’s Nothing Wrong with Her by Kate Weinberg, released in August 2024, has been called the first Long Covid novel. It likewise centers on a protagonist dealing with the condition and, like Will There Ever Be Another You, is based on the author’s personal experience. The character, Vita, is mostly bedbound in her apartment in London, dealing with brain fog, fatigue, and other symptoms. She describes the onset of this illness as a descent into “The Pit.” While it’s heartening to see the subject addressed in fiction at all, the review in The Sick Times points out a number of flaws in the book, including the fact that Vita has a somewhat miraculously fast improvement in symptoms for a condition that has few treatments and is notorious for lasting a long time (for those who are lucky enough not to be permanently affected).

Though she hasn’t incorporated the subject into her work, author Madeline Miller (famous for her retellings of Greek myth, such as The Song of Achilles and Circe) has also spoken publicly about her experience with Long Covid, which bears striking similarity to Lockwood’s. She wrote about it in an article for The Washington Post (republished on Authors Unbound) in 2023. After listing a host of disturbing physical symptoms, she recalls the neurological effects:

“Worst of all, I couldn’t concentrate enough to compose sentences. Writing had been my haven since I was 6. Now, it was my family’s livelihood. I kept looking through my pre-covid novel drafts, desperately trying to prod my sticky, limp brain forward. But I was too tired to answer email, let alone grapple with my book.”

Authors and other public intellectuals think for a living, and their thoughts are a product the rest of us consume. The neurological symptoms of Covid-19 bring the potential for real financial hardship for people like Lockwood, Weinberg, and Miller, and perhaps this is partly why they have been vocal about their experiences. For others, these particular symptoms might be less obvious, less pronounced, easier to ignore or work around. Maybe it’s not very noticeable for those not in the business of selling their thoughts. Maybe the symptoms seem like they can be attributed to some other cause—lack of sleep, aging, stress, etc. But when one of our most interesting and entertaining thinkers tells us she got sick and couldn’t think, couldn’t make sense of words, we should listen to this canary in the coal mine.

In Sex of the Midwest, a “novel in stories” by Robin Ryle published in October 2025, Long Covid is addressed most overtly through the character Don Blankman, a former college basketball coach who contracted the virus in the early stages of the pandemic and is awaiting a lung transplant in 2024, when the novel takes place. But elsewhere, Ryle explores what one might call symbolic or metaphorical Long Covid. For several characters, the pandemic has thrown the events and detritus of their lives, their desires and ambitions and failures, into sharp relief. A bartender named Rachel, for instance, decides on a whim to apply to take part in a writer’s retreat, but when she is there, she feels out of her element, lost and confused. Another character, a child, remarks that they were told by the adults in their life that things would be better after the pandemic was over but that this hasn’t proven to be the case. This is a feeling many can likely relate to, and the reason is that, even though the world has demanded that we believe otherwise, the pandemic isn’t over, and the more we act like this isn’t true, the further we get from an actual ending. The literal experience of Long Covid is also a metaphor for the ongoing trauma and grief we all carry as a result of the pandemic, feelings that can’t be reckoned with honestly or genuinely since we’ve all been left behind by a social and political infrastructure that asks people to put themselves at risk in the name of “moving on.”

In an interview with NPR, Ryle explains:

“I think in a lot of the stories you see - one of the kids who comes back, he talks about, everyone promised us after the pandemic, everything would be better. And he's betrayed by that's not actually true. It's after the pandemic, or at least, you know, the worst of the pandemic, and things aren't really better. So I think part of Rachel and everyone in the story is dealing with this sense that we had this promise if we could just get through, things would be OK. And things didn't turn out the way that maybe we thought they would or people told us they would.”

There are so few books that address Covid-19 that reading something like this feels like hearing someone speak my native language after years and years abroad. I do not have Long Covid; as far as I know I have never contracted Covid-19. (I do have a disabling chronic condition that causes pain and fatigue that would likely be exacerbated exponentially if I got Long Covid.) I wear an N95 mask in all public indoor spaces (and crowded outdoor spaces) at all times and I don’t eat at restaurants. I rarely do other public indoor activities like going to movie theaters. It’s not terribly difficult doing (or not doing) these things, and I feel fortunate to have the resources and support to be able to avoid putting myself and others at risk. What is difficult is watching the rest of the world around me get sick and become disabled while the overall societal message is that nothing is happening. What is difficult is losing relationships with friends and family because I won't compromise on self-preservation or the protection of my community to make them feel okay about the risks they're taking.

Left to right: Covers of There's Nothing Wrong with Her, Will There Ever Be Another You, and Sex of the Midwest

Lockwood writes in Will There Ever Be Another You about the fact that the most monumental events of our time are rarely incorporated into our fiction. (She uses the example of 9/11.) She believes this is because “almost as soon as they happened they were transformed into propaganda.” This is true, but it’s not the only reason, and I think the framing could be expanded. While the beginning—what one might call the “lockdown phase”—was certainly a monumental event, the pandemic is not an event at all, it is a historical shift, in which the world has found itself in an entirely new, uncharted dimension. Anyone living their lives like that isn't the case (whether willingly or due to personal, social, or economic pressures), contracting the virus again and again, is in the position of rolling the dice on long-term disability.

There have of course been plenty of other novels about the Covid-19 pandemic—a flurry were released in 2021-2022 in particular—and novels where the pandemic features as backdrop or setting without playing a key role. But we rarely see fiction engaging with the experience of being sick with the virus, or fiction that addresses the reality that the pandemic is still the setting in which we’re all living our lives. Lockwood has commented on the fact that her publisher expressed serious reservations about the content of her book. In both Will There Ever Be Another You and There’s Nothing Wrong with Her, Covid is rarely mentioned by name. A review of Lockwood’s book in The Sick Times quotes a researcher studying Covid-19 in literature: “Owing to the sheer despair of our current world and the want to move on from the pandemic, this type of writing lacks marketability.” No kidding. And it’s worth noting that the three books discussed in this article were all written by white women, two of whom were already relatively well-known with active publishing contracts. One can easily imagine how difficult getting such a book published might be for Black or Latinx people, who, again, are disproportionately affected by Long Covid. Also, the fact that marginalized populations are more likely to deal with Long Covid cannot be separated from its lack of supposed "marketability."

The ongoing pandemic is affecting authors just as it's affecting everyone else. We’re not supposed to talk about it, and we’re treated with disdain if we take precautions to prevent infection. Just the same, authors are not supposed to write about it. We see the tension in this emerging, as fiction writers quite commonly draw from their real lives, and thus this would seem a natural subject. If up to one-third of people who contract Covid-19 also acquire some form of Long Covid, this is something quite a lot of authors are dealing with. Maybe Lockwood’s and Weinberg’s novels represent the beginning of a shift in how the condition appears in literature. While one might criticize either book as being an imperfect representation of Long Covid, both evince a kind of wild and vulnerable bravery in approaching this subject at all.

Will There Ever Be Another You is a vivid and arresting portrait of a mind in rapid decline, that is so entertaining partly because we know the end of this true story is not a tragedy. For many others with Long Covid there is no such restorative arc. Most authors who contract the disabling condition won’t write an exceptional book about it—because of what Lockwood says about it being taboo subject matter, because the world so obviously has little desire to hear about how Covid-19 continues to affect people, or because their cognition is so dramatically affected they can no longer do the work required to shape their story into something the rest of us can read. Instead there will just be silence, a gap where a great book could have been.

Who Even Reads is an independent publication run by two hardworking editorial professionals. We write about books from a liberation perspective, with a socially conscious focus that's both fun and serious, covering mostly new releases. Your donations subsidize what we do. Learn about us.

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Syria: catastrophe

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Posted on substack 20 January 2026

A catastrophe is unfolding, hour by hour, in North East Syria.

The transitional government of Al-Sharaa agreed a ceasefire with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) of North East Syria (called ‘the Kurds’ by most in the press) on Sunday. But government forces and associated armed groups (al-Sharaa’s militia, the HTS, and the Syrian National Army, a violent Turkish proxy) continued and widened their attacks.

Under American pressure, the SDF under the ceasefire ceded control of two provinces east of the Euphrates. But government and extremist attacks continued in the towns of Raqqa and Deir ez Zor. The former is well known as the headquarters of ISIS during the years when ISIS controlled large swathes of Syria - until they were defeated by the SDF, at great cost in life, with ‘allied’ air support, a campaign that has continued until now. Indeed there has been a resurgence in ISIS attacks in recent months.

Government forces and extremist groups are now pushing far into the North East, laying siege to Kobani in the north, and attacking the major centres of Hasakeh and Raqqa. It is clear that Turkey, seeing the world’s attention distracted by the lunatic in the White House, is seizing the opportunity to occupy the whole region and destroy the SDF, whom they allege is one and the same as the PKK, once and for all. Multiple atrocities have been committed along the way, with horrible videos of torture, summary execution and mutilation of corpses of SDF fighters, videos filmed and gleefully circulated by the jihadists among al Sharaa’s forces, often to the accompaniment of songs celebrating the killing of non-believers. The atrocities, of course, are reminiscent of ISIS. Indeed, there are photographs that appear to show known ISIS members among the armed groups.

Hundreds of ISIS prisoners were freed from a prison south of Hasakeh yesterday. As I write (1pm UK on 19 January), al Hol, the huge camp in the far north east holding tens of thousands of ISIS fighters and their families, is under attack but the situation is unclear: it appears that some prisoners have already escaped. Extremists on the government side are calling for the ‘liberation’ of all ISIS detainees.

Refugees are flooding eastwards. Rhetoric from the government is playing up the ethnic character of the assault on ‘the Kurds’, inciting ethnic hatred and violence. There are reports that the government has named the campaign, ‘Anfal’, which was the name of Saddam Hussein’s genocidal attack in northern Iraq in 1988, which killed 100,000 Kurds. I hope this is not true.

I have been in touch with various diplomats etc who tell me that they are ‘working on’ Damascus to stop the violence. But whatever pressure they are exerting appears to be having no effect. The mistake was that the US envoy (and, notably, also ambassador to Turkey), Thomas Barrack indicated to Damascus that the US accepted that ‘the Kurds’ should be removed west of the Euphrates, effectively greenlighting the government’s attacks in Aleppo and beyond. Turkey and Damascus have also taken this as tacit American acquiescence in a more far reaching invasion of the North East and destruction of the SDF, our ally in the war against ISIS, who have sacrificed forty thousand lives, men and women, in that campaign. The Kurds understandably see this as an epic betrayal. Trump spoke to al-Sharaa yesterday but the attacks have continued today. American troops seem to be involved in securing some of the ISIS prisons, but this too is currently very unclear.

Rojava is now under widescale attack and is at risk of total occupation by Damascus’s forces along with associated extremist groups. Turkish drones are active in the attacks and there was a report this morning of Turkish attack aircraft over Syria. If SDF resistance digs in, which it will, we can expect greater Turkish involvement. Both Damascus and Ankara are no doubt confident that whatever the diplomatic bleatings now, they will suffer no long term consequences for this assault. But the dream of a ‘united’ Syria is dying as we watch. We are seeing domination by force, not unity by consensus, which is what the people of the North East, and the SDF’s leadership, very much want.

The true character of the al-Sharaa regime which, remember, has never been elected, is being revealed. The foolish western embrace of the ex-terrorist ‘reformer’ is exposed for its naivete.

Remember that there is a lot of unverified information going around. But the information I’m sharing about the extent of the attacks is coming from the SDF itself. There is a lot of stuff on ‘X’ but of course much of it is sometimes wild fabrication (one American supposedly independent ‘analyst’ for instance is happily broadcasting anti-Kurd propaganda). I will update as and when. My messaging apps are constantly pinging as I write.

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Why neither Asia nor the US has produced a rival to ASML

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Traditionally strong — what went wrong?

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‘Germany’s economy is in free fall’, warns Peter Leibinger, president of the Federation of German Industries (BDI). The German automotive sector, at the heart of its business model, is undergoing a disruptive process. Almost 50 000 jobs were lost in the space of a year (third quarter of 2025 compared with one year ago), with the number of automobile workers declining to a level not seen since 2011. The rest of the manufacturing sector is faring little better, with the total number of jobs falling by 120 000. A sign of the general weakness of traditional German businesses is that German GDP is no higher than it was six years ago.

With China now flooding European markets with cheap, attractive electric vehicles, these negative trends are likely to continue. Germany’s traditional manufacturing base is further challenged by its almost complete absence of a digital sector — internet platforms, semiconductor producers and software companies. In this area, the United States is by far the dominant economy. Consequently, Germany is the European country most seriously affected by the ‘middle-technology trap’ identified by economists as a threat to Europe in general.

Germany’s unique position is illustrated by the average age of its top 20 firms (measured by market capitalisation): 129 years. While it is not negative that companies have successfully transformed over the decades, the problem is that new, globally relevant companies have not been developed in either the electronic and digital sphere or the field of renewable energies — batteries, electric vehicles or solar panels, for example. This raises the question of why other countries, particularly the United States and China, have performed much better in establishing major companies outside the traditional manufacturing sector.

China planned its dominance; America hid its hand

For China, the answer is simple. In 2015, the country developed the ‘Made in China 2025’ master plan, identifying core industries in which it intended to gain global leadership: information technology, computerised machines, robots, energy-saving vehicles, medical devices and high-tech equipment for aerospace, maritime and rail transport. Ten years later, it is clear that this strategy has been successful. China dominates the global market, especially in the supply chain of renewable energies. The threat that this strategy posed to Germany’s manufacturing sector was identified as early as 2016 in a study by the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies. In an article for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung on 12 August 2017, I warned of the challenges posed by China’s industrial policy for Germany. In response, my fellow members of the Council of Economic Experts criticised me, questioning my economic expertise.

But what about the United States? Here, the dominant narrative seems to support the view of many German economists that innovation cannot and should not be managed by the government, which is supposedly unable to ‘pick winners’. This narrative is supported by famous stories about the origins of big tech companies, which often depict their founders as starting their businesses in a garage: Bill Gates in 1975 (Microsoft); Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak in 1976 (Apple); Larry Page and Sergey Brin in 1998 (Google).

This seems to confirm the Hayekian view of competition as a discovery process, the idea that a market system has an innate capacity for innovation as long as it is not disturbed by government regulations and burdensome taxes. The ‘garage’ narrative is presented in the 2018/19 Annual Report (paragraph 158) of the German Council of Economic Experts:

‘In order to be sustainably successful, however, an innovation location should refrain from a guiding industrial policy, which sees it as a state task to identify future markets and technologies as strategically important (…). It is unlikely that policymakers have sufficient knowledge and understanding of future technological developments or changes in demand to make this a meaningful long-term strategy. If the government is concerned about sustainable progress, it should rather rely on the decentralised knowledge and the individual actions of various actors of the national economy.’

Unfortunately, the misconception of the US digital agenda continues to shape economic thinking in Germany to this day.

However, this raises the question of why Germany has been unable to develop similar garage success stories. There has certainly been no shortage of garages or very smart young people. To understand the digital dominance of the United States, one must look beyond the standard narrative. The explanation lies in the comprehensive yet ‘hidden’ industrial policy pursued by the US government in the 1950s and 1960s. In the words of Wade (2014):

‘The dominant approach to selective industrial policy took the form of government support for “basic” research in a plethora of military laboratories. Hence the quip: “America has had three types of industrial policy: first, World War II; second, the Korean War; and third, the Vietnam War.” The focus on “basic” and “military” research avoided the ideological issues surrounding industrial policy because even market fundamentalists accepted that the government should fund the development of new weapons and intelligence systems.’

Data on US R&D spending illustrates the significant contribution of military R&D spending in the 1950s and 1960s. Expenditure by the Department of Defense and NASA accounted for over 50 per cent of total R&D spending in the United States. This spending’s importance becomes evident when considering that, in 1960, US defence spending accounted for 36 per cent of global R&D expenditure.

Thus, contrary to the mainstream narrative, it was the US government that had a clear strategic vision of boosting electronic computers, computer software and semiconductor components, giving birth to the internet and, more recently, digital platforms. US industrial policy remains active to this day, as evidenced by In-Q-Tel (or IQT), the CIA’s investment arm, which describes its role as follows:

‘For more than a quarter of a century, IQT has delivered significant mission impact by building a unique – and uniquely powerful – not-for-profit global investment platform that accelerates the introduction of groundbreaking technologies to enhance the national security and prosperity of America and its allies.’

Therefore, as long as most German politicians and economists continue to adhere to a flawed concept of growth and innovation, the outlook for the German economy will remain bleak.

Unfortunately, the misconception of the US digital agenda continues to shape economic thinking in Germany to this day. Katherina Reiche, the Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, in particular, has a deep belief in the virtues of a free market economy. At a recent symposium, she argued that the government should focus on its core competencies, such as external security, education, and infrastructure. She believes that subsidies and funding programmes should be rigorously scrutinised. In her view, competition is the most important driver of innovation (“prosperity through competition”), although she also acknowledged that US tech giants are a key source of economic dynamism in America.

The lack of a comprehensive strategy for transforming the German economy is particularly damaging as the reform of the so-called debt brake in March 2025 created an opportunity to actively promote fundamental innovations. However, due to this conceptual void, much of the additional financial space will be used to lower the energy costs of existing firms (around €30 billion in the 2026 budget), while only €4.5 billion will be available for the so-called HighTech Agenda Deutschland.

Therefore, as long as most German politicians and economists continue to adhere to a flawed concept of growth and innovation, the outlook for the German economy will remain bleak. Caught between a rock (China) and a hard place (the US), its manufacturing sector will continue to shrink without a corresponding rise in new competitive technologies.

Is the situation really that hopeless? There is still a glimmer of hope. The reform of the debt brake makes it possible for all defence expenditures exceeding one per cent of GDP to be financed with debt. There is no limit to this. This creates an opportunity to use the defence sector to promote new technologies that can be used for purposes beyond the military. In this regard, Germany could adopt the US model of ‘hidden’ industrial policy to help it escape the middle-technology trap.

This is a joint publication by Social Europe and IPS Journal.



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