Re: cursing Trump - to also reshare links as recap:

This analysis piece was published just before this big push: The Biden Administration’s False History of Ceasefire Negotiations: At a workshop in Geneva in November, a recently retired US ambassador, who had just returned from meeting White House officials, claimed, “There are currently three ceasefire deals on the table and Hamas isn’t responding to any of them.” The veteran diplomat acknowledged the suffering in Gaza but blamed it on Hamas’ “rejection” of an agreement to end the war. To my surprise, a former senior Israeli security official in the room rushed to challenge this claim, which he described as a “shameful attempt to rewrite history and blame Hamas rather than Netanyahu for the obstruction of ceasefire talks.” A few weeks later in Doha, I met a senior Arab official who emphasized to me one of the most crucial things Biden can do in his “lame duck” period is name and shame Netanyahu for systematically foiling ceasefire talks. But the official quickly added the White House is “instead rewriting history.” Since July, all of the sources I have spoken to confirmed that Hamas had accepted Biden’s ceasefire proposal that was endorsed by the UN Security Council, which is premised on an 18-weeks long ceasefire divided into three phases, at the end of which there would be a permanent end to the Gaza war after all hostages have been released. The same sources, as well as Israeli media, and the Egyptian mediators have consistently blamed Netanyahu for obstructing the talks and refusing to end the war. Even in the latest ongoing round of negotiations, senior Israeli security officials are sounding the alarm that their Prime Minister is still sabotaging the talks. Yet, the White House keeps insisting that Hamas is “the obstacle.”

The reality is that since July, US president Joe Biden has completely stopped pressuring Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire-hostage deal. Rather than tell the truth about Netanyahu repeatedly foiling the talks, the outgoing president and his administration are choosing instead to try and rewrite the history of what has really unfolded over 15 months of negotiations

Also relevant for domestic US politics: A Palestinian source directly involved in the negotiations told me then that Hamas’ leader Yahia Sinwar sent them clear instructions to stick to the July 2 Biden proposal instead of getting stuck in a limbo of endless negotiations. Hamas refused to show up for the August round of talks as long as Israel rejected the most important two stipulations of Biden’s proposal: gradual IDF withdrawal from Gaza and ending the war. Remarkably, the Americans pressed Egypt and Qatar to issue a false statement on August 16 that emphasized “talks were serious and constructive and were conducted in a positive atmosphere,” although there were no talks to begin with. A senior Arab official involved in the negotiations told me both Israel, Qatar and Egypt objected to the idea of issuing this statement, but the Americans argued it was necessary to create domestic pressure on Netanyahu to narrow the gaps. The actual goal, according to this official, was likely to make it harder for Iran and Hezbollah to retaliate and to allow Kamala’s Democratic National Convention to pass peacefully without disruptions. The official added that Netanyahu had been sending his advisor, Ophir Falk, to the talks to undermine Israel’s negotiating team, and that the US asked mediators on multiple occasions to prevent him from attending the meetings. As soon as the DNC ended, Biden blamed Hamas again for the failure of the talks, and effectively stopped trying to get a deal, with US officials declaring in September that a ceasefire deal has become unlikely during Biden’s term. Since then, the White House has attempted to re-write history and promote an official narrative blaming Hamas for Netanyahu’s systematic foiling of the talks.

Amid the deadlock, Qatar declared in early November that it was suspending its mediation role, which a senior Arab official told me was intended to create domestic pressure on Netanyahu. The Qataris also suspended Hamas’ office in Doha and Hamas leaders left the country by mid-November.

And much of this is corroborated in the Jacob Magid reporting shared upthread ('Trump envoy swayed Netanyahu more in one meeting than Biden did all year')

----- 3 days ago:

⚡️ 🛑 Journalist Ariel Segal, close to Netanyahu: "We are the first to pay the price for Trump's election. We are being raped to accept the deal. I don't think this is what we planned and waited for. We expected that we would take control of northern #Gaza and prevent humanitarian aid."

Or you can have Noga Tarnopolsky's reporting, which doesn't include the rape colloquialism and it's got a clip from the tv panel: 💥Stunned like the true believer he is, Netanyahu proxy @ErelSegal laments: "We're the 1st to pay a price for Trump's election. [The deal] is being forced upon us… We thought we'd take control of northern Gaza, that they'd let us impede humanitarian aid"

----

The Haaretz analysis piece that was summing up the story over the weekend (when the first wave of upset proxies started to move out*) (ungated), and key for me: A week before Trump's inauguration, Jerusalem already sees a change in the rules of the game that has broken the deadlock in the hostage negotiations. Unusually, the outgoing Biden administration has let Witkoff lead the process, on the grounds that any obligations the United States undertakes will be incumbent on Trump, not on Biden.

Another "successful" gamble so they won't get the presumed blame, but bullies understand other bullies, so they're not getting credit either. Well, maybe in the US. Better recall Iran-Contra than perhaps he's the compromised candidate, I guess.

*I'm counting this WaPo piece about Israel wanting to move ahead and make its own heavy bombs as such

-----

Gregg Carlstrom: Donald Trump will take credit for pushing the deal over the finish line after months of failure by Biden. Meanwhile Republicans, who cannot criticize Trump, will pretend that Trump had nothing to do with the deal

(QTing Tom Cotton blaming "lame duck" Biden for "cramming down" the deal. So sad when paid-for advocates aren't sharing the same set of talking points)

posted by cendawanita at 5:00 PM on January 15 [25 favorites]

Two twts back to back on my TL:

Dimi Reider (5h ago): The Gaza ceasefire will only start on Sunday. Israel's past conduct suggest next four days are going to be extra brutal, even by this war's standards.

Osama Abu Rabee (4h ago): The intensity of the airstrikes on Gaza City is now unprecedented.

O Allah, grant safety, grant safety… -------

We Have a Ceasefire Deal, but This Isn’t the End -
The widely reported agreement must hold. We haven’t begun to understand the full scope of the horrors Israel wrought. And Palestine is still not free. by Muhammad Alsaafin

Annelle Sheline (one of those who resigned from the State Dept) writes for Responsible Statecraft: Speculation on social media and after Biden’s remarks was rife about how long the deal is likely to last. After boasting that he achieved his goal of a ceasefire by his inauguration, Trump may lose interest in reining in Israel’s military operations in Gaza. The deal may last through the first phase of 42 days, but beyond that the Israeli press has reported that Netanyahu promised Smotrich that the fighting would resume.

(Going to count on that infamous thin skin to keep it current in his endocrinal system, if you ask me)

In the meantime, accusation confession etc, and in the West Bank (it's never just Gaza): Israel admits soldiers used ambulance in raid on refugee camp

But back in Gaza: Almost 100 strikes located in Gaza 'humanitarian zone', BBC Verify analysis suggests

(Heh. "suggests")

In Israel: (Haaretz, ungated) 'Cutting the Head Off 200 Organizations': Inside Israel's War on NGOs That Aid Palestinians -
The Israeli government has announced regulations that could bar NGOs and their workers from the country. Three senior officials in the field worry the move will stop humanitarian aid to the West Bank and Gaza. 'The West should know what's going on,' says one

(Speaking of aid.)

posted by cendawanita at 6:28 PM on January 15 [13 favorites]

What’s the cook-o-meter ratings when it’s Nick Kristof saying the below?

To the extent that the Gaza ceasefire deal is largely the same as what was on the table eight months ago, it seems to me less a tribute to Biden's deal-making skill than an indictment of it. Biden refused to use leverage over Netanyahu, so Bibi rolled him. Then Trump pushed, and Netanyahu agreed to essentially the same deal -- but many thousands of Palestinian lives were lost (to American weaponry) in the interim. Yes, this is simplistic and there's more to the story, but it reflects the frustration that so many Middle East-watchers have had with Biden's refusal to use his leverage or to condition arms transfers; instead, Biden kept asking Bibi "pretty please" to do better, and the upshot was that hostages remained in Gaza and Palestinian children died. I fear Trump's management of the Middle East will be worse, but at least he understands arm-twisting.

ICYMI: New submissions on incitement to genocide filed to international criminal court

An Israeli lawyer has filed submissions to the international criminal court (ICC) alleging incitement to genocide against Palestinians by eight Israeli officials, including President Isaac Herzog and prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The lawyer, Omer Shatz, who is also a counsel to the ICC, says that it is the first time where a case for incitement to genocide has been framed as a crime that can be independently prosecuted irrespective of whether genocide or intent to commit genocide has been proven. A 170-page submission, which he says took a year to prepare with students at the International Law In Action clinic at Sciences Po in Paris, where he is a lecturer, accuses the eight, who also include the former defence minister, Yoav Gallant, of having “publicly and directly incited others to commit genocide against Palestinians in Gaza”.The new submissions say: “Unlike all other ICC crimes and modes of liability, this inchoate crime (incitement to genocide) can and indeed must be independently investigated and prosecuted, regardless of whether genocide has been committed or not.”

(...)Shatz added: “There were (in the past) cases of incitement to genocide in the case law, in Rwanda and so on but it was always attached to the genocide and this is the first time saying, irrespective of whether you believe it is or it is not (genocide), you can go ahead with incitement.”

Related from +972: What is the duty of the Israeli left in a time of genocide?

The nearly two dozen such activists who spoke to +972 also recognize that a ceasefire in itself wouldn’t change the political structures in Israel and the US — those that made it possible for people in both societies to participate in starving and murdering Palestinians on a mass scale. Even if a deal is reached, the process of reckoning with being part of an eliminationist society, one that has crossed new thresholds in its dehumanization of Palestinians, is just beginning. “So many people here are in a fascist frenzy,” activist and podcaster Yahav Erez told +972. “I ask myself, ‘You’re living in a genocidal state, almost everybody around you has zero empathy toward anyone who’s not ‘their’ people, and you’re still in contact with them — how can you be giving them legitimacy?’ But on the other hand, I was once just like them.”

Facing these seemingly insurmountable challenges, Israel’s radical leftists have set their sights on long-term political change. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not immortal; the militaristic center and messianic far-right currently appear to be his most likely successors. Leftists’ goal is to lay down the groundwork that could make them a viable political force once the war ends. To do so, they are now compelled to re-examine how they understand their own power, their base, and their ability to create change.

Speaking of Yahav Erez, her podcast is now on yt, and she hosted an episode with two Israeli musicians who've been doing and performing anti-war songs, and this is the bonus episode of their performance.

Under this rather cordial title, Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal brings hope for devastated northern Gaza, WaPo follows up on the (ICYMI) story where an NGO was leaned on by the Biden administration to retract their report on famine in Gaza:

The report, produced by the famine-tracking organization Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) just weeks before Biden was due to leave the White House, threatened to further tarnish the administration’s legacy in Gaza and was challenged internally by a senior official at the U.S. Agency for International Development. “This title says that a Famine is unfolding without any caveats,” Sonali Korde, a senior USAID official, wrote to FEWS NET in correspondence obtained by The Washington Post. She “strongly” recommended that the organization responsible for the report change the title to say “risk” of a famine instead — a less severe assessment that the authors of the report said was not supported by the available facts. Korde did not respond to a request for comment. When the report published in late December without changes to the title, the Biden administration ordered the famine warning be deleted from FEWS NET’s website — the first such retraction in the organization’s 40-year relationship with the U.S. government. Three U.S. officials told The Post that the decision caused a firestorm among staff at USAID, and raised fears that governments in Africa and elsewhere would question the credibility of the famine-warning organization, which receives $60 million each year from USAID. These officials, like some others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal disagreements. “The perception is that USAID put its thumb on the scale to shield Israel and the United States from criticism,” said Jeremy Konyndyk, a former senior Biden administration official and current president of Refugees International. “FEWS NET is the gold standard in famine tracking and this is the type of incident that can just demolish its credibility.” (...) Publicly criticizing the famine report based on a drop in northern Gaza’s population is a tactic some senior administration officials wanted to avoid because doing so only underscored how the besieged area has become unlivable. But Jack Lew, the U.S. ambassador to Israel and a staunch advocate for the country within the Biden administration, slammed the famine report publicly, calling it “inaccurate” and “irresponsible” — and noting that Israeli estimates put the post-exodus population in northern Gaza at between 5,000 and 9,000. The basis of Lew’s critique appeared to be that FEWS NET relied on larger population estimates furnished by the United Nations instead of the Israeli government’s data. But that’s no justification for calling the report irresponsible, aid experts said. “He directly mischaracterized what the document actually said,” Konyndyk said.

Lew declined requests for comment.

Ah well, it's not like the US didn't negatively impact the polio vaccination uptake anyway (eg).

posted by cendawanita at 7:33 PM on January 16 [3 favorites]

Haaretz (follow-up) analysis (I assumed it was filed just before the feint that fizzled out anyway but no, it included that episode too): How Trump Scared Netanyahu Into Accepting a Cease-fire Deal With Hamas -
Cynical, unwilling, fearful: Benjamin Netanyahu, who rejected this same hostage deal when the Biden administration proposed it months ago, has now been bulldozed into wide-ranging concessions. For the hostages, and for Israel, this is the only morally correct end to an unbearable saga

Ungated : It may be too late to embrace an alternative diplomatic arrangement. Hamas is in a better position to take control of civilian affairs in Gaza and gradually rebuild its military strength. The Israeli public will be surprised when it finds out what the person who says he wishes to be remembered as Israel's defender had to concede during the negotiations. It's not just control of the Philadelphi route, but also the Netzarim corridor, including the ability to genuinely monitor the return of over one million Palestinian civilians to northern Gaza. He also agreed to allow the entry of 600 trucks with humanitarian aid per day, 100 more than the daily average before the war. During the months in which he rejected the plan, which had already been proposed last May by the Biden administration, Netanyahu was mainly worried about his radical right-wing allies Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, who threatened to dismantle his coalition. It now appears that Trump left him with no other choice. For years, people have been saying that Netanyahu is the sum of all his fears; it turns out that Trump scares him even more, perhaps justifiably so. Some of the prime minister's blind followers are going through a painful sobering up these days. Trump is not an admirer of Israel or Netanyahu.

(...) The hostage deal will begin to be implemented, most likely, early next week. Both sides have an incentive to maintain the cease-fire for six weeks and to complete the release of 33 hostages in exchange for over 1,200 Palestinian prisoners. The true test will come with the second phase. It involves the release of the second group of Israeli hostages, alive and dead, upon the completion of Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. Trump sounded sure of himself, but it's going to be a tough mission that's full of tensions.

Lol trying to imagine western media trying to be anti-Trump and anti-Palestine at the same time from this Sunday. What will the ensuing coverage would be like - celebrate non-American war criming a little too much next thing you know orange man sends this gang to the Hague out of professional jealousy.

posted by cendawanita at 8:53 PM on January 16 [1 favorite]