All the best for the festive season, and best wishes & good health for 2026 to all readers. Thoughts on the following will be appreciated. – vreaa

1. A home is simply a place to live

A home is first and foremost a place to live – that is its core purpose and ultimately its real value.

2. A home is a basic human need

It’s odd that a society obsessed with the importance of human needs such as clean air, water, food, childcare, education, and healthcare can allow a similarly basic and important human need – shelter – to become a speculative vehicle, for decades.

3. You can calculate the fair financial cost of a home

Housing’s fundamental fair-value pricing can be calculated from historical ratios of (i) local wages and (ii) rental yields. By those measures, and even taking into account recent price weakness, Vancouver homes of all types remain among the most overvalued globally, and can be argued to be roughly two to three times overpriced.

4. Some people will pay a bit more for the benefits of ownership

People may be prepared to pay for the convenience and (in some cases) pride of owning over renting, but this usually modest ‘ownership premium’ does not alone result in prices that are wildly higher than fundamentals justify.

5. Commonplace use of extreme leverage is unique to the housing market

Leverage – borrowing heavily to buy – is routine in housing. The 10-to-one or even 20-to-one leverage that is common in RE (10% down or 5% down respectively) is justifiably seen as cowboy-level risk taking in other markets. Try getting that kind of basic leverage in a margin stock account. RE is the only way in which most citizens are exposed to leveraged investing. And it works seemingly magically on the way up … a young couple’s entire net-worth may double in a year where housing prices leap 5% or 10%. But on the way down, leverage is hellish. This large leverage/deleverage phenomenon is a central factor fuelling both the virtuous and vicious stages of a bubble.

6. Unusual housing tax incentives tempt and drive buyers

Tax-free capital gains on principal residences create big incentives to buy at any cost. In a social system that aims to tax fairly across the board, why fuel speculation in homes by tempting buyers with the promise of this massive reward? And the rewards are indeed outsized – in recent years, in many parts of Vancouver, millions of dollars tax free. How long does it take an average Canadian household to save a million dollars, after tax? A life time? A fairer system might only shield long-term gains that match core inflation.

7. Mortgages stimulate an economy in a profound and unearned fashion

Where do mortgages come from? Answer: Banks create them out of thin air through their lending under our fractional banking system. Most people, even those amongst the most educated members of our society, are unaware of this fact. Test this by asking some of your friends. Most believe mortgages come from other people’s savings. In actual fact, they are created from almost nothing, in the process essentially expanding the money supply (and, yes, fuelling inflation). This results in an economy looking far better than its fundamentals merit, as a bubble expands. Sellers suddenly have large amounts of money to spend now, that they did not earn in any conventional sense. Of course, on the other end of the deal a buyer has promised to pay all this back, but that’s in the future.

8. Decades of unusually low interest rates misprice risk and encourage speculation

Artificially low interest rates since the late 1990s – thanks to celebrity central bankers egged on by eager politicians – made borrowing cheap and fuelled endless price growth. The cost of borrowing was mispriced; citizens could borrow and risk the capital without proportionate consequences. We experienced serial asset bubbles (tech, US housing, everything, AI). Interest rates are still low by historical standards, even though many are complaining that they are ‘too high’ compared with record lows of recent years. The current 5 year rate is ball-park 4%; the average 5 year rate from the 1950s to the present is about 8%.

9. A Speculative Mania

Speculation means buying largely for price appreciation, rather than primarily for income or use. Rising prices draw in more buyers, FOMO kicks in, ‘animal spirits’ take over, and pretty much everyone is dragged into the vortex. We have long maintained that everybody buying in Vancouver, over the last 20 years or so, was doing so with the conscious or unconscious expectation of continuous unrealistic price gains. This applies equally to buyers who argued that they were simply buying for use – the truth is that they would never have contemplated buying at mania prices if they thought that prices may stay flat, or (unimaginably) decrease. They bought based on the assumption of price gains. This local-buyer speculative component was a powerful force driving the market.

10. Stories that Fuelled the Vancouver Bubble

“We are running-out-of-land”, “we are the best-place-on-earth”, “rich foreigners will buy everything”, “endless immigration”. These themes in various combinations were touted widely as reasons for the astronomic prices, and reasons to expect prices to rise indefinitely. Some actual effects in all of these, but more important was the way that these narratives drove relentless buying/speculation by locals. 

11. Serial undeserved and unnecessary bailouts

Vancouver RE received a bailout-shot-in-the arm in the form of very low interest rates in early 2009, when it didn’t even need it. This resulted in the second booster stage of the bubble. The ridiculously loose money of the COVID pandemic has proven to be the last booster shot, causing the 2021-2022 blowoff. We quipped at that time that all Vancouver RE prices would need to truly go into orbit would be a devastating earthquake. Price corrections thus far appear to have removed the COVID blow-off part of the bubble – but prices are still in the stratosphere.

12. Taking a second job as landlord/property manager in order to buy

Many owners became unintended landlords, buying properties with rental suites just so they could stretch to make the mortgage payments and get into the market. Thus citizens routinely got to use only a fraction of their home, and took on a second part-time job (informal property manager) to be part of all this. Many homes became de facto businesses. Is this really how we choose to live, and to spend our time?

13. Shady borrowing and lending practices further increased price pressures 

One income supporting a series of mortgages. Using equity from one property to leverage the next. Fraudulent income declarations to secure larger loans. Blind-eye to the same from the lenders to compete for business.

14. No intention whatsoever to actually repay the mortgage debt

Market historians will have heard stories from a half century ago, of ‘mortgage burning parties’. This was where home owners got together with friends and celebrated finally paying off their debt. “What losers!”, thought Vancouver speculators of the last 20 years. Didn’t people know that mortgages could simply be rolled over, and finally eclipsed by the massive gains in housing prices when you sold? Why bother to pay down your debt with actual earned money, when your appreciating house value could look after all that for you? [These assumptions, of course, get very rudely destroyed when prices plunge.]

15. There is no shortage of land in Canada, only a shortage of will to use it.

Aliens (both those from other countries and those from other planets) are confused – why does a country with the second largest landmass on the planet, and such a low population density, not take advantage of this useful resource? We are most certainly not ‘running out of land’.

16. Vested interests push up prices and benefit from unaffordability

Politicians with multiple properties, realtors posing as neutral experts, media dependent on developer advertising, vocal elites with massive RE ‘portfolios’, influential boomers dependent on the value of their houses for their retirements, many other examples: all have interest in keeping the market hot and prices high. Don’t expect those in positions of influence to take any real action that may make housing affordable. True affordability would have to mean that prices would fall to the vicinity of fair fundamental value levels. Witness the first public statement by the current Federal Minister of Housing (ex-Vancouver-mayor [2008-2018] Gregor Robertson): not to worry, housing prices will not come down. He happens to own multiple BC properties.

17. Realtors are almost never impartial, and show bullish bias

Realtors earn from transactions, not from getting either the buyer or the seller the best deals. Realtors want volume; and they get the most volume in an optimistic, bullish market. Witness the market pause and reduced sales of 2025. Take any opinion, advice, or forecast from anybody in the RE industry with a grain of salt the size of your head.

18. A Real Estate Bubble causes a vast misallocation of resources 

A housing bubble sucks the oxygen out of other activities in the society. Talent and capital is distracted… and flows into real estate. Professionals, distracted by stories of massive gains, become condo flippers. Youth become roofers for quick cash (and F150s!) instead of studying to become nurses or engineers. Capital is diverted from innovation, industry, manufacturing. The economy becomes overdependent on activity related to RE:  by many calculations this sector swells to over 20% of all of BC’s economic activity.

19. In a bubble everything to do with housing goes up in price, because it can.

Prices increase at higher rates than inflation in construction, renovations, landscaping, yard care, condo maintenance fees, etc. Owners see their property values increase in leaps and bounds, and these expenses seem relatively affordable and appropriate – they are easy to ignore. In a related effect, demand for services increase, and the quality of many housing related goods and services appear to go down. 

20. Housing invades mental space and defines the culture

A multi-decade housing bubble takes up a massive amount of mental space, both for those ‘in’ or ‘out’ of the market. It starts defining a culture. News anchors declare that they ‘love’ real estate. Social interaction is commonly dominated by talk of housing prices, unrealized profits, renovations. Infatuated owners spend an inordinate amount of money and time caring for or refurbishing their homes, which are now their most important ‘investments’. Renters experience chronic anxiety; they anticipate forever being disenfranchised. Sleep is affected. How much does a society suffer from all of this distraction and unproductive activity? Consider how far this is from the default: “A home is first and foremost a place to live”.

21. Owners and renters become two different classes of citizens, often on generational lines

The bubble divides the society. On paper, there emerges huge wealth inequality. Inter-generational conflict festers. Boomers’ retirement hopes (ridiculously high prices) clash with younger generations’ shot at a normal life (prices at fundamental values). Essentially the boomers are asking the youth to fund their retirements by overextending into RE and taking on massive debt for life. Discouraged young people leave town. Owners hunker down and try to protect their paper gains. Politicians express concern about social consequences with sober frowns, but affordable housing talk remains nothing more than talk.

22. Unintended (and not immediately apparent) consequences

Your family doctor, instead of working until 70 to build their retirement nest-egg, retires comfortably at 56 after cashing out by downsizing their primary residence and selling their large clinic space in 2022. Recall prominent architect Bing Thom’s comment on making more money on his Vancouver home than by working “an entire lifetime”. “This tells you something”, he said.

23. Wealth effect spending further boosts the economy

Owners track the prices of comparable properties, feel rich on paper and spend accordingly. They ignoring the need to save and perhaps even build further debt against their home. This makes the economy look stronger than it actually is.

24. Bubbles always end

They are destined to end once they start. When they do start deflating, participants will invariably look for triggers and reasons. Currently they blame tariffs, land claim uncertainty, immigration slowdowns, the exposure of fraud & money-laundering, youth emigration, etc. All of these factors may contribute to a market slowdown, but they should not distract one from understanding that the underlying structure of a bubble is ultimately unsustainable, and will at some point have to collapse, even without external cause.

25. Timing the top is impossible

The market can stay irrational for a long, long time. At the end of 2009 we predicted that the bubble would pop by 2019… out by an outrageous 6 to 16 years, depending on how you calculate. And, yes, retrospectively it would have been better to have purchased in 2005… or 2001… or 1996… but retrospect is cheap. The second lesson any market participant must learn (after learning about speculative manias) is that one has to learn to get over that ‘coulda-shoulda-woulda’ feeling as painlessly as possible.

26. Vicious cycles then follow; the downward-spiral is self-reinforcing 

Negative equity, forced sales, banks protecting themselves, construction grinding to a halt, jobs vanishing, incomes dropping, rents falling, prices resetting lower; rinse and repeat until all speculation is flushed from the market. When prices are falling, speculators vanish – and a market that has been based almost solely on speculation implodes.

27. Price targets are lower than most can imagine

When big bubbles burst, prices often eventually drop to below fundamental values (over 50%-off from current Vancouver prices). These price targets look impossible to all but dedicated students of market history. Prices revert to the mean. Prices drop to levels supported by fundamentals. Prices drop until all bullish sentiment is completely squeezed out. All manias end like this. In RE it can take many years. We currently have (rare) predictions from industry insiders of price drops for the coming year; of the order of 4% for Vancouver. Four percent is noise, not even a correction. 

28. A market that is suffering the effects of a deflating speculative mania cannot be rescued

A popping bubble involves so many powerful self-reinforcing forces that, once underway, it will simply play itself out. Attempted rescues may alter the course somewhat, but are unlikely to change the ultimate outcome and real-price targets. 

29. On the way down, do not be misled by ‘buyers’ market’ descriptors

Sellers’ and buyers’ markets, in RE agent parlance, are defined by inventory:sales ratios. Currently there has been a surge in inventory and a very large drop in sales – but prices have only modestly softened. Already we have hopeful realtors calling this a ‘buyers’ market’. Do not be fooled – you will hear these calls all the way to the bottom – this indicator will ‘stick to the wall’ all the way down, as panicked sellers pile on the inventory and most buyers sit on their hands (remember: speculators hate falling prices). A true buyers’ market will emerge when prices approximate levels determined by fundamentals.

30. In the aftermath, housing may genuinely become affordable again

Affordable housing? Nothing that a good clean speculative-mania collapse cannot sort out. Once the dust clears (and it will take years), we are likely to go through a period where housing is again priced near fundamental value. This will ultimately be good for the society, and hopefully we will have learned from the entire cycle. The path getting there will be gruesome, however.

31. The human cost of a deflating RE bubble is brutal

Bankruptcies, shattered retirement plans, vanished paper wealth, and a lot of regret. Everybody suffers, in different ways, and at different times. Broadly, bulls can be destroyed in the bust; bears were massively inconvenienced and distressed during the run up. But literally everybody suffers when living in a society weathering a bubble deflation and aftermath. 

32. We should try to discourage speculative manias, especially in basic needs

In the end, this is why everything possible should be done to minimize the risk of market manias in future. Humans will always be vulnerable to ‘animal spirits’ and attracted to get-rich-quick schemes – but we could take measures to ensure that structures within the real estate markets, the financial system, the taxation system, and perhaps even education, deter rather than fuel such manias.  

33. Not so fast… we could be wrong (yet again)

Perhaps Vancouver RE prices will turn on a dime and boost from stratosphere to actual orbit. But, this time, it does seem like something is genuinely ‘broken’. We will see.

– vreaa

witchofanguish:

Holiday lights are up, and Hanukkah has begun, but man, it’s hard to hold onto cheer as the world delivers blow after blow. This week brings outbreaks of once-forgotten diseases, rising respiratory illness, and more mass shootings. All underscoring how fragile health and safety really are, and how much suffering can be prevented. Still, I deeply believe that connection, hope, and small, deliberate actions remain powerful ways—at times the only ways—to protect one another and keep one foot moving in front of the next.

Here’s The Dose to start your week.

Mass shootings continue to outnumber days in the U.S.

I tried to put into words last night the evidence-based solutions to mass shootings. I was initially trained as a violence epidemiologist, am married to a police officer, and am a mom, and I know there are things we can do as a society. Then I deleted it. Then I rewrote it. Then I was just mad about the whole situation and stopped.

It’s hard to put into words the toll this takes on our communities. And it makes it even harder when it happens over and over and over again.

This time, tragedy struck Brown University during finals prep, a time meant for focus, hope, and growth. Students, faculty, first responders, and many of my friends—some who were working the emergency department or were on campus with students—are left in shock and grief, trying to make sense of yet another traumatic event.

As of December 14, the U.S. has had 391 mass shootings—more than the number of days in the year—for the seventh consecutive year. Seventy-five of these occurred at schools. The frequency is high enough that epidemiologists can now identify patterns. The timing of the shooting at Brown follows a familiar one: school shootings often cluster around periods of transition to and from school breaks.

Across the world, another mass shooting tragedy hit Australia, where people celebrating the first night of Hanukkah were likely violently targeted for their beliefs. The horror of losing loved ones at a gathering meant for reflection and celebration is unimaginable.

Almost immediately, social media seized on the tragedy to argue that Australia’s strict gun laws don’t work. I’ll stop that right there. This isn’t a debate because the data are crystal clear:

1. Mass shootings are extremely rare in Australia. Since the Port Arthur massacre in 1996, strict firearm regulations (a buyback program and tight licensing) have kept mass shootings to zero or one per year on average in Australia. By contrast, the U.S. experiences roughly 400–650 mass shootings annually, with more than 46,000 deaths from gun violence each year. As the graph below shows, it’s not even close.

   

2. A tragedy does not disprove the effectiveness of these laws. Data show that strict regulations reduce deaths. Beyond Australia, places like the U.K., Japan, and Canada have similarly strict gun laws and extremely low rates of mass shootings. We can also see variability within the United States. States with the most lax gun laws have the highest rates of gun violence.

3. Firearm deaths are the leading cause of death for children in the U.S., whereas in Australia, child deaths from firearms are extremely rare, with suicide and road accidents being the top causes.

While every loss of life is devastating and mourned, the scale of firearm deaths in the U.S. makes clear that the problem is far from isolated. It is systemic and ongoing. It doesn’t have to be this way. Public support for stronger gun laws is high. Polls consistently show that a large majority of Americans back measures such as universal background checks, restrictions on high-capacity magazines, and mandatory waiting periods.

What this means for you: Please donate blood. For those looking for immediate resources for helping children and youth, the National Child Traumatic Stress Network developed the following fantastic resources:

• Talking to Children about the Shooting (En Español)

• Helping Youth After Community Trauma: Tips for Educators (En Español)

Below are previous YLE posts that are as relevant today as they were before. I hope they help you feel empowered. There are solutions and paths forward.

• We can reduce gun violence in the U.S.—we’ve done hard public health things before.

• It’s hard to explain (and fix) evil—but it’s not mental illness. Focusing solely on it largely avoids confronting the real, more complicated causes.

• Firearms: What you can do right now—there’s a lot.

• Epidemiology of mass shootings—you’ll notice these tragedies follow some, but not all, patterns of previous school mass shootings.

Infectious disease “weather” report

It’s officially respiratory season: the percentage of physician visits chalked up to coughs, fevers, and sore throats—also called influenza-like illness (ILI)—has passed 3% and continues to rise quickly.

Right now, rates are uneven across the country: some states remain green, reflecting minimal activity, while others are already lighting up red, signaling high levels. Before long, the entire map will be red and purple.

For flu, specifically, we’re seeing this increase first among younger populations, especially school-aged children. Soon these illnesses will spread to older adults as well. CDC estimates there have already been at least 2.9 million illnesses this year and 30,000 hospitalizations. By the end of the season, we can expect roughly 15% of Americans to get the flu.

Tragically, the first pediatric flu death was reported for the 2025-2026 season. I expect many more, given that flu vaccination rates are the lowest they’ve been in decades. Since 2004, we’ve seen an increase in the number of deaths year over year. Last year was a record year for pediatric deaths. Most children who died were not vaccinated.

Covid-19 remains low nationally, but it doesn’t look like this will continue for long. Cases in the Northeast and Midwest are increasing quickly. The South is inching upwards as well. (See your local wastewater trends here.)

We’ll see where this takes us, but given that we had a mild Covid-19 winter and summer, there are a lot of people out there susceptible to infection. Trends are still hard to predict, given this is a relatively new virus: we could see a large wave or smaller and smaller waves, with Covid-19 becoming the common cold. Time will tell.

What this means for you: All of these trends will only intensify with holiday gatherings, as mixing of households and social networks creates more pathways for viruses to travel. Wearing a mask in crowded indoor spaces helps reduce disruptions in your life. Testing is useful, though for mild illness, it rarely matters which virus you have—except for high-risk individuals, for whom results could guide antiviral treatment. Stay home until symptoms improve to protect others and prevent further spread.

Measles outbreaks continue to march on with 1,926 cases this year. Word on the street is that the U.S. will also lose the WHO measles elimination status early next year.

Two outbreaks continue to grow quickly:

• South Carolina: This outbreak is growing exponentially, with Spartanburg County remaining the epicenter with 126 cases. Fifteen new cases were reported last week, mostly household transmission. Currently, 254 children are in quarantine at 11 schools, missing 21 days of school for an easily preventable disease.

• Utah/Arizona: 291 cases with ongoing transmission spreading through Utah and Mohave County, Arizona.

What this means for you: If you’re near a measles outbreak, follow guidance from your local public health department. Children under 12 months can get MMR as early as 6 months old, and families up to date on vaccinations are protected.

Alright, I need some hope… and help.

Simply making it through this year is an accomplishment. Still, even through the fog, there have been wins and moments of good news, and I truly believe we need to hold onto them to keep hope and joy alive.

Every year, I collect public health victories to mark the close of the year, and I’m not stopping now. I’d love your help. What’s your favorite piece of public health good news or biggest win this year? It can be local, national, or global. Share it in the comments, and I’ll try to include some in the final 2025 accomplishments report.

Bottom line

This week, as respiratory illnesses rise and outbreaks continue, and as our communities are shaken by yet more mass shootings, taking small but meaningful actions—masking in crowds, staying home when sick, staying up to date on vaccines, and advocating for safer environments—can help protect the people we care about.

Love, YLE

Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE) is founded and operated by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, wife, and mom of two little girls. YLE reaches more than 425,000 people in over 132 countries with one goal: “Translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free to everyone, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support the effort, subscribe or upgrade below:

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The NDP says its policies are working. The CMHC offers other reasons.