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The Many Casualties of Precision Warfare

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Since September 11, 2001, the United States has launched or led military operations across at least eighty-five countries. Up to 4.7 million people have died as a direct or indirect result of these post-9/11 wars, according to Brown University’s Costs of War Project. Thirty-eight million have been displaced, at a financial cost exceeding $8 trillion.

The 2003 US invasion of Iraq — launched on the false premise of weapons of mass destruction — dismantled the Iraqi state, dissolved its military, and ignited a sectarian civil war carrying decades-long consequences, among them the rise of the Islamic State. By mid-2014, ISIS had seized large swaths of Iraq and Syria, declaring a caliphate across a territory roughly the size of Jordan.

The bombs were Dutch. The intelligence was American. The dead were Iraqi — and no one has been held responsible.

The United States assembled a coalition of at least eighty nations — Operation Inherent Resolve — to destroy the so-called caliphate from the air, directing operations from thousands of miles away through allied jets, classified intelligence, and computer-generated damage estimates.

Hawija, a traditionally Sunni town, fell to ISIS in June 2014 and remained under its control until October 2017. The coalition’s target — an ISIS facility assembling vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices — had been monitored from Virginia since December 2014. It sat in what planners called an “industrial zone.” In Iraq, this is not a depopulated business park but mixed-use: people live above workshops, homes share walls with shops, and government buildings sit beside small factories.

“There was a baseline lack of understanding of local context,” says Emily Tripp, director of Airwars, an investigative organization tracking civilian harm from air and drone strikes. “They just assumed civilians weren’t there.”

A white truck is parked in front of a one-story building with bullet holes and visible damage.Buildings across Hawija remain pockmarked by the violence of years of war, as the town fell under ISIS control in June 2014 and remained so until October 2017. (Jaclynn Ashly / Jacobin)

A Dutch commission of inquiry last year found the coalition should have known civilians were present — the International Organization for Migration (IOM) had publicly documented the influx of displaced people into Hawija’s industrial zone as early as February 2015.

Targeting was US-led and intelligence was US-controlled, running through the coalition’s operations center in Qatar. US agencies vetted the target, identified as sitting in an urban industrial zone surrounded by residential areas. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) specifically flagged the proximity of one. The strike was initially rated CDE-5 High, the “Collateral Damage Estimation” indicating expected civilian casualties, so planners revised the loadout to lighter Small Diameter Bombs, lowering it to CDE-5 Low.

But the model excluded secondary explosions, as the stored quantity was unknown. All US agencies — including the CIA — approved the strike, and the CIA’s flag about the residential neighborhood was never passed to the Dutch pilots or authorizing officers.

The Netherlands drew the strike as the only coalition member other than the United States with Small Diameter Bombs. Dutch Red Card Holders — national officials with veto power — saw that the target sat in a populated area with residential blocks nearby, as well as a mosque. Unable to independently verify US intelligence, they pushed the strike from 9 p.m. to midnight, betting fewer civilians would be outside.

A cream-colored building with a significant number of bullet holes on its exterior.Bullet-scarred walls stand as reminders of the layered conflicts that have shaped Hawija, where residents endured both ISIS rule and the coalition air campaign waged to dislodge it. (Jaclynn Ashly / Jacobin)

Just after midnight, two Dutch F-16s released their bombs. A massive secondary explosion followed — unlike anything seen in a coalition strike. Civilian casualties were immediately assumed, yet the Dutch Ministry of Defence told Parliament there were no indications of civilian harm — a position it maintained for years despite internal intelligence to the contrary. Dutch military intelligence later estimated fifty thousand to one hundred thousand kilograms of explosives at the site — up to five times the United States’s initial post-strike estimate.

Driving through Hawija today, the scars remain — pockmarked walls, empty lots, rubble strewn across the ground. Seated on the floor of his still window-shattered home, his small children around him, Khaled Ahmad, forty-seven, recounts what happened.

A man sits on the floor raising his arm and pointing upward while two small boys sit on either side of him.Khaled Ahmad sits on the floor of his still window-shattered home in Hawija with his sons, recounting the night of June 2, 2015, when shrapnel killed his twenty-year-old brother within minutes and wounded his mother, who died of stomach cancer a month later. (Jaclynn Ashly / Jacobin)

He had been sleeping on the roof with his family. Windows shattered, doors blew inward, and part of the house collapsed. His wife’s legs were cut by flying glass. His youngest son suffered a head injury. Shrapnel tore through his twenty-year-old brother, killing him within minutes. His sixty-year-old mother was also wounded; weeks later, she developed stomach cancer and died a month after.

A man stands in a room next to a curtained window, leaning over and pointing outside. Khaled Ahmad shows the windows of his home in Hawija, still shattered more than a decade after the 2015 blast that destroyed his car-electrical shop — his only source of income — a kilometer away. (Jaclynn Ashly / Jacobin)A man stands in an alley next to a large beige-colored metal door with green graffiti on it.Khaled Ahmad stands outside the empty plot where his car-electrical shop once stood a kilometer from the blast site — destroyed in the 2015 strike and never rebuilt. (Jaclynn Ashly / Jacobin)

Ahmad’s car-electrical shop — his only income, a kilometer from the blast — was destroyed. It remains that way. “My mother was the beating heart of our family, and I think about my brother every single day,” he says. “Families in Hawija are still broken by this.”

What followed was not rescue but chaos under ISIS control. The group ran the hospitals and controlled movement.

“Using explosive weapons in urban areas under insurgent control creates an extremely difficult situation for civilians,” says Lauren Gould, associate professor in conflict studies at Utrecht University. “There are no troops on the ground to secure access to care. ISIS made medical access political — people with severe injuries were turned away.”

Others pledged allegiance for treatment. Some were stitched by pharmacists without anesthesia. Those who could afford smugglers navigated checkpoints and mined roads to hospitals in Mosul, Kirkuk, or Baghdad. Treatable injuries became permanent.

In a sunlit sitting room across town, Hussein Ibrahim Hussein, fifty-six, edges forward. He lived five hundred meters from the blast. “Our home was completely destroyed,” he recalls. Many neighbors were displaced families hoping to reach Kurdish-controlled Kirkuk city. “Their bodies were scattered across the streets.”

A young man sits in the foreground with an injured eye while an older man sits behind him. Hussein Ibrahim Hussein with his son, now twenty-two, who was blinded in his right eye by a fifteen-centimeter shard of glass from the 2015 blast and says, “I feel like they stole my future from me.” (Jaclynn Ashly / Jacobin)

His brother was found dead on the road, thrown from the house. His son’s face was covered in blood — a fifteen-centimeter shard of glass lodged in his right eye. Overwhelmed doctors could offer only first aid, so Hussein smuggled his son out. “I sold all my wife’s gold — everything,” he says.

After fleeing to Turkey and Iran and five years seeking treatment, every diagnosis was the same: irreversible retinal detachment and permanent blindness. His son, Hussein Ibrahim, now twenty-two, suffers balance problems and headaches that leave him unable to work. “I feel like they stole my future from me,” he says, eyes fixed on the floor.

Like many victims of coalition airstrikes, Hawija’s residents did not know whose planes struck them. Only when Dutch media reported on the strike in 2019 did the community learn the bombs had been Dutch.

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Doctor Removed From Ontario Medical Association AGM for Refusing to Take Off Watermelon Pin

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The Ontario Medical Association is facing backlash online after family doctor Yipeng Ge posted about being removed from its annual general meeting because he sported a watermelon pin.

According to an audio recording of the May 7 incident that Ge shared with PressProgress, two members of OMA’s executive team — who Ge said identified themselves as Sandy Zidaric and Adam Farber — escorted him out of the event at the Rogers Centre in Ottawa and told him he could not re-enter the room unless he took the watermelon pin off.

“It’s a political symbol, and I think because of that, we have a rule for our meetings so that these aren’t worn,” Farber is heard saying in the recording. “And anyone who’s wearing other political symbols, we would ask them to remove that as well.”

Since the 1980s, the watermelon has been an emblem of Palestinian solidarity, emerging from an era in which public displays of the Palestinian flag (which shares similar colours) were expressly banned in Israel.

Ge asked if he’d be able to wear a Canadian flag.

“I don’t believe that’s the same thing as a watermelon,” said Farber, who serves as the OMA’s legal advisor and executive vice-president of economics, policy and research. The OMA is the principal advocacy organization for Ontario’s doctors, into which all of the province’s practicing physicians pay dues.

“I think, really, what we both want to do is we want to make sure that everybody feels comfortable and safe, and attends the meeting, absolutely,” said Zidaric, the organization’s executive vice-president of people and culture. “So I’m sure that that’s what you want as well.”

“Can you explain to me why wearing a watermelon pin would make certain people feel uncomfortable or unsafe?” Ge asked.

“I don’t think we need to,” said Farber. “I think it’s pretty clear what the purpose of the symbol is and what it represents, and it’s clearly a political symbol that’s being worn.”

The rule Farber and Zidaric refer to throughout the nearly 15-minute conversation is one sentence in an email sent to attendees ahead of the event.

It read, “To support the orderly conduct of the meeting, demonstrations and the display of signage, clothing, or accessories with messaging are not permitted.” There was no explicit reference to political symbols.

Ge asked whether wearing a Pride flag would be disallowed if it made a homophobic person uncomfortable.

“I don’t know if that’s the point of the discussion,” Farber said.

Neither Farber nor Zidaric directly responded to questions from PressProgress, but in a statement, a spokesperson for the OMA wrote the following:

“We are aware of concerns raised regarding an interaction involving an attendee at the Ontario Medical Association’s Annual General Meeting. The OMA is a non-partisan organization focused on representing and advocating for Ontario’s physicians and the patients they serve. While we understand that global events can evoke profound personal convictions and deeply held feelings among our diverse membership, the OMA will continue to remain steadfast in its policy of neutrality on geopolitical matters to ensure our focus remains on medical advocacy.”

On the recording, neither Farber nor Zidaric bring up a second pin Ge was wearing on his lapel: a red ribbon with a small Palestinian flag embedded at the top.

“The red ribbon is for the AIDS campaign, but it’s also been used recently to demand the release of all Palestinian political prisoners or hostages,” Ge told PressProgress in an interview, describing the Red Ribbons Campaign.

Ge was not slated to be a speaker at the event, and the executive-team members did not identify any complaints from attendees about his attire.

Yet they refused to let him back in the conference room unless he took the watermelon pin off, and offered to instead seat him alone in a different room where he could attend the meeting remotely.

Ge has been a vocal advocate for Palestinians undergoing Israel’s genocide since 2023, and is one of many physicians and medical students across Canada who have faced professional repercussions as a result.

In his encounter with the OMA executives, in an interview with PressProgress and in his social media posts, Ge emphasized the reason he refused to take off the pin: to show solidarity with Palestinian healthcare workers who have been killed or captured by Israeli forces over the course of Israel’s ongoing genocide in Gaza.

Since Ge posted about the incident on his social media accounts, healthcare workers, medical students and members of the public have been tagging the OMA in comments on Instagram, X and LinkedIn demanding a response.

Among those supporting Ge is Dr. Tlaleng Mofokeng, a South African physician and the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Right to Health, who commented under the post on Instagram, ”Sorry my friend. You and your pin are mighty. Viva.”

At least one doctor who attended the meeting responded positively online to the organization’s decision to remove Ge from the premises.

“Kudos to two staff from @OntariosDoctors for upholding the code of conduct and removing a member from last night’s Annual General Meeting,” Toronto-based internal medicine physician Dr. Hal Berman wrote on X. “A reminder that racism must never be tolerated and OMA meetings are not for personal agendas.”

Berman finished second in a recent election for the OMA presidency, telling the National Post that his loss was unfair because the organization had added a note to his campaign profile describing his social media posts as having “used language frequently characterized by a confrontational and combative tone.”

 

Since his advocacy for Palestine began in 2023, Ge has heard from a number of other healthcare workers and medical students across Canada who faced backlash in their workplaces for wearing symbols of support for Palestine.

“One that I think about was a medical resident in Quebec who wore a watermelon pin, and because of that, they were told, ‘If you’re going to wear this pin, you’re not allowed to be in the clinic and see the patients that are under my care,’ and so they were kicked out,” Ge said.

He cited another incident in Ottawa where a nurse was sent home by their manager for wearing a pin with a watermelon that had the words “Ottawa HCP,” representing “Ottawa Healthcare Workers for Palestine,” embedded in it.

“I know so many people in the medical profession that do stand against genocide and stand in support with Palestinians,” Ge said.

“We just have to be much louder, be much more organized and really push back in a loud way, because these institutions have gotten away with so much for so long behind closed doors.”

 


Clarification: A sentence has been added to offer background on why watermelons are associated with Palestinian solidarity.

 

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Israel attacks civilian flotilla to Gaza again : Peoples Dispatch

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Vessels from the civilian flotilla to Gaza have again been attacked in international waters and their crews abducted by Israeli occupation forces on May 18. The Global Sumud Flotilla stated the assault took place in Cyprus’ search and rescue zone, 250 miles from Gaza, and overlapped with obstructions faced by a global land convoy attempting to break the blockade of Gaza through a route in North Africa.

“This military encirclement marks the commencement of another illegal, high-seas aggression four days after 54 civilian vessels lifted anchor from Marmaris to establish a humanitarian corridor and break israel’s illegal siege of Gaza,” the Global Sumud Flotilla wrote. “The consecutive targeting of both the sea and land components of the mission makes clear that the illegal siege on Gaza has expanded into a global architecture of violence, occupation and expanded impunity.”

Israel’s newest round of attacks against the civilian flotilla comes only weeks after it assaulted over 20 ships near Greek territorial waters at the end of April, and abducted 181 crew members. The event was followed by the prolonged imprisonment of two Global Sumud Flotilla activists, Saif Abukeshek and Thiago Ávila, who were finally released – without charge – on May 10. The abducted crew members reaffirmed reports of violence committed by Israeli soldiers shared by participants of previous flotilla efforts, while Abukeshek’s and Ávila’s legal representatives echoed reports of torture.

Despite the likelihood of Israel attacking the flotilla again, many ships decided to continue their journey to Gaza, emphasizing that their efforts are in line with international law, unlike the occupation power’s continued acts of piracy in proximity to European waters. Additionally, the Freedom Flotilla Coalition stated ahead of departure on May 13 that the civilian flotilla’s role is not simply that of an aid delivery attempt. “We sail in defiance of a brutal and unlawful blockade to isolate, imprison, and persecute Palestinians, and in rejection of the international community’s failure to stop Israel’s ongoing crimes against the Palestinian people,” the organization wrote.

The attacks have already triggered new protest announcements across Europe, following a weekend of actions organized in support of cultural boycott calls and marking of Nakba Day. Mobilizations took place in Austria, Germany, Italy, and Spain, with many initiatives insisting on understanding the events of 1948 as an ongoing catastrophe for Palestinians – in which most European governments remain complicit.

“Today we commemorate the forced expulsion of more than 750,000 Palestinians in 1948,” general secretary of the Workers’ Party of Belgium Peter Mertens stated on May 15. “This is not a forgotten history, but a permanent reality of occupation, apartheid, and violence that today culminates in a brutal genocide against Palestinians.”

Similarly, the Italian grassroots trade union Unione Sindacale di Base (USB) wrote: “The Nakba continues to this day. It continues through military occupation, the siege of Gaza, the colonization of the West Bank, segregation, deportations, arbitrary detentions, and the systematic denial of the fundamental rights of the Palestinian people.”

“Today, it is even more important to remember this so that we do not turn a blind eye to the crimes of genocide and imperialist aggression currently being committed in Palestine and throughout the Middle East by the United States and Israel,” the left party Potere al Popolo added.

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Scientists play catch-up to startling Ebola outbreak

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Confirmation on Friday that a rare Ebola virus was sickening people in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) shocked many scientists—mainly because of the outbreak’s sheer size: 246 suspected cases and 80 deaths at the time. It appeared to have been spreading undetected for many weeks, which would make it that much harder to control. Since then, researchers and public health experts have been sprinting to make up for lost time.

By Friday night, the World Health Organization (WHO) and Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) had convened a meeting and chosen the most promising candidate drugs to test in a clinical trial. The next morning, a trial protocol had been adapted to those drugs for submission to regulatory authorities in the DRC and Uganda. By this evening, two teams from Uganda and the DRC had published three genome sequences from the virus online, which should help scientists track how it is spreading. “Amazing work from those two teams—bloody fast turnaround!” says Kristian Andersen, an evolutionary biologist at Scripps Research.

But the outbreak has also grown in the meantime, to 395 suspected cases including 106 deaths. Ituri province in the northeast of the DRC is the outbreak’s center, but the 10 confirmed cases so far include one in Goma in the neighboring province of North Kivu and two in Kampala, the capital of neighboring Uganda. WHO declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) on Sunday. And today, Africa CDC followed suit, declaring the outbreak a public health emergency of continental security. “I'm really worried this has spread so far, so quickly,” says Salim Abdool Karim, an epidemiologist who runs the Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa and chairs the Africa CDC committee that recommended the emergency declaration. “It just crept up on us.”

One reason is the cause, a rare Ebola species named Bundibugyo after the region in Uganda where it first emerged in 2007. (A second Bundibugyo outbreak was recorded in 2012 in the DRC.) “We have no widely available diagnostic, no treatment, no vaccine” for the species, Karim says. “So we sort of have our hands tied behind our back here.”

In recent Ebola outbreaks health workers relied on a diagnostic tool called GeneXpert, a machine that automates polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technology. But the reagents needed to detect the viral DNA are available only for the Zaire species of Ebola virus that caused most past outbreaks. The lack of a handy test is one reason the new outbreak took longer to detect, and it will also make it harder to manage. Discussions are underway to have GeneXpert cartridges made for Bundibugyo, Karim says. For now, another kit called RadiOne is being used, says Placide Mbala, head of epidemiology and global health at the National Institute of Biomedical Research (INRB) in Kinshasa. “We are still waiting for more RadiOne reagents to deploy to all remote labs close to where suspected cases are being reported,” he says.

A lack of reagents for replicating Bundibugyo’s genome also hampered efforts to sequence the virus, Mbala says. Researchers have been using a workaround: a catch-all kit designed to amplify all kinds of different viral genetic material. “It works well but is much more expensive, takes longer, and is potentially less sensitive for very degraded samples,” says Andrew Rambaut, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Edinburgh.

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Still, a full genome sequence was posted online on Sunday from a patient in Uganda, followed on Monday by two from the DRC. The virus appears to be about equally related to the culprits in the two previous outbreaks, Rambaut says. “It looks exactly what I would expect a new spillover from the reservoir in the area would look like.” More sequences could help pinpoint how long the virus has been spreading in humans, Andersen says. For now, the earliest known case is a nurse who fell ill on 24 April and died 3 days later in Bunia, the capital of Ituri province. But it’s highly likely she was infected by a patient, Karim says.

Efforts are underway to start clinical trials of promising candidate drugs and vaccines, says Vasee Moorthy from WHO’s Office of the Chief Scientist. At WHO’s Friday night meeting, a monoclonal antibody cocktail called MBP134 and the antiviral drug remdesivir were chosen as the best candidates for a clinical trial. A trial protocol called PARTNERS, developed at the University of Oxford for an emergency situation like the current outbreak, could be used to test both.

PARTNERS had begun to test remdesivir and a different antibody during a 2024 outbreak of Marburg disease in Rwanda, but paused the effort when the outbreak ended. “Effectively this protocol was sleeping and lying in wait,” says Amanda Rojek, a clinical scientist at Oxford. The researchers have updated it for the current outbreak and are now awaiting approval from ethics committees in the DRC and Uganda.

WHO has scheduled a meeting tomorrow to discuss tests of candidate vaccines. Thomas Geisbert, a virologist at the University of Texas Medical Branch who has conducted Ebola vaccine research in animal models since 2000, developed candidates by stitching the gene for the surface proteins of various Ebola strains into vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), a harmless “vector” that copies itself after being injected into the animals. VSV carrying the gene for a Bundibugyo virus surface protein protected 100% of monkeys challenged with that strain, and 83% of monkeys who were injected shortly after a Bundibugyo infection. Because that candidate vaccine is not available right now, another strategy could be to combine two available vaccines against other Ebola species: Geisbert and colleagues achieved 100% protection against a Bundibugyo challenge in monkeys by giving a prime shot of VSV-Sudan followed by a boost 2 weeks later with VSV-Zaire.

Geisbert says pharmaceutical companies have long shied away from building on his monkey successes because they do not want to shoulder the high costs of producing “clinical grade” material for human studies and conducting the trials. He notes that a VSV-Zaire vaccine that worked in monkeys didn’t move forward in humans until the 2014 explosion of disease from Zaire virus in West Africa. “It’s the same story,” Geisbert says. “I have lived this for 26 freaking years.”

The DRC has stopped more than a dozen previous Ebola outbreaks despite a lack of drugs or vaccines simply by isolating patients and identifying and quarantining their contacts, Jason Kindrachuk, a virologist at the University of Manitoba, points out. Those low-tech measures, too, will need people and resources from partner organizations and the international community.

Karim says his team is feeling the absence of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which played a role in managing the mpox emergency in 2024 but was dismantled last year. “Basically, the U.S. has become unreliable as a partner, so we have to carry on.”

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has 25 staff stationed in the DRC and will send more technical experts to help. It also issued travel restrictions today that for the next 30 days bar non-U.S. passport holders who have been to the DRC, Uganda, or South Sudan in the past 3 weeks from entering the United States. A medical missionary from the United States who was working in the DRC and who tested positive for the virus on Sunday will be flown to Germany for treatment, where other “high-risk contacts” will also be monitored.

For now, it’s unclear just how big the outbreak really is, Kindrachuk says. “But I think we also have to appreciate that, with each hour, with each day, there's a potential that this will expand.”

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President's sister among those detained by Israel on ship

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Dr Margaret Connolly, the sister of President Catherine Connolly, is among at least six Irish citizens aboard an aid flotilla that have been detained by Israel, organisers say.

They said the interception happened around 70 nautical miles off Cyprus.

The Global Sumud Flotilla said it has lost contact with the intercepted boats.

The flotilla has posted videos from Dr Connolly and five others, which appear to have been recorded in advance of their detention.

Dr Margaret Connolly is pictured speaking from a boat to RTE Six One News Dr Margaret Connolly was one of six Irish citizens detained, flotilla organisers have said

In her video, Dr Connolly said: "If you are watching this video, it means I have been kidnapped from my boat in the flotilla by the Israeli occupying forces, and I'm now being held illegally in an Israeli prison.

"I am so proud to be taking part in this flotilla - it is the largest to date."

In an interview with TG4, President Catherine Connolly said that the incident happened in international waters.

"It's quite upsetting, and I'm very worried about her, and I'm also very concerned about her colleagues on board," she said.

President Connolly added that due to her "very busy" schedule on the day of her official visit to England, she "hadn't really had a chance to get details" in relation to her sister or others on the flotilla.

Israel's foreign ministry earlier said on social media that it will not allow any breach of its naval blockade on Gaza.

As Israeli military vessels intercepted the flotilla fleet, the Global Sumud Flotilla demanded safe passage for its "legal, non-violent humanitarian mission".

It called on international governments to stop what it called illegal acts of piracy on the part of Israel.

Karen Moynihan, head of the Irish delegation for the flotilla, who is not on board, said 15 Irish citizens are sailing as part of it.


Watch: Moment Israeli forces boarded one of aid flotilla vessels


The flotilla organisers could not confirm how many, if any, of the Irish sailors have had their ships intercepted.

Ms Moynihan has called on the Irish Government to condemn the interception and demand safe passage for the people who are legally entitled to sail in those waters.

The flotilla organisers also posted a video showing boats approaching their flotilla.

One video featured Irish citizen Mikey Cullen.

An infographic titled "Israeli army attacks Global Sumud Flotilla in international waters" created in Istanbul, Turkiye

Ships from the Global Sumud Flotilla had set sail for a third time on Thursday from southern Turkey, after earlier attempts to deliver aid to Gaza were intercepted by Israel in international waters.

In its statement, Israel also called on "all participants in this provocation to change course and turn back immediately".

The previous flotilla departed from Spain on 12 April.

But Israeli forces intercepted vessels in that group, taking more than 100 pro-Palestinian activists to Crete and detaining two others in Israel.

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Additional reporting Conor Hunt, PA and Reuters

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In Closed-Door Talks, U.S. Demands a Major Role in Greenland - The New York Times

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