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Or, a change in presidential administration should not lead to such qualitative changes in policy.
While this might be stating the obvious, what has struck me about the radical change in U.S. immigration policy is that much of it–not all of it–is legal and, other than a budget increase, has not been accompanied by significant changes in legislation. We have gone from a system, while convoluted, that still was open enough to encourage immigration to one which is not. Yet there has been no passage of the equivalent of the Asian Exclusion Act.
Instead, the immigration laws are labile enough to enable a qualitatively different immigration regime, simply at the whim of the executive (admittedly, with some assistance by the Republican Supreme Court judges). This implies bad legislation, since something like immigration policy–which obviously is of great interest–should be debated, not unilaterally decided.
One could argue this is part of a larger ceding by Congress of its Article I powers to the executive branch, but there are people who are smarter about that sort of thing than I am. Regardless, having major policy shifts (also see: tariffs) without passing legislation also means the stability of law and governance is non-existent, as many business owners here and abroad have discovered.
One more thing that will have to be fixed during the deTrumpification.
Hi friends,
Here are three things that have been rattling around my head this week. Ideas I’m sitting with, questions I’m pondering, or threads I might pull on in future posts.
These aren’t polished arguments. They’re the thoughts behind the scenes, the ones that shape what I write and how I think.
We’re managing for means, not distributions.
I’ve been working on the final proofs of a paper that will be coming out in Nature Reviews Biodiversity in February focused on extreme events and river biodiversity under climate change. This was a huge effort that took a couple of years to put together, but what struck me during the process is not how much we already know but actually how much we still don’t know.
The thing I’m most concerned about is that we’re often fixated on means when the real world runs on variance and extremes.
Ecological impacts are rarely driven by the middle of the distribution. They come from tail events — floods, droughts, heatwaves — whose probability is shifting under climate change. As the means shift, so too do the variances and the chances of encountering extreme conditions. If we continue to manage for the middle, we’ll be unprepared for the real threats — extreme events, which can have irreversible impacts on ecosystems and humans alike.
Managing for the mean is choosing to be surprised by extremes.
(In the paid section: two more things I’ve been thinking about — one about slowing down as an intellectual strategy, and one about why I’m resisting pressure to be more divisive.)
Sorry for posting tiktoks on main but this was articulated so well it made me get up and pace
Oh my god this is exactly what I’ve been wrestling with. Like, humans are pack creatures, we need community, it’s essential enrichment for our brains, but when I imagine trying to build community, it makes me go hide under the stairs. This guy nailed all the reasons why.
If there’s a story you need to read this weekend, it’s Althia Raj’s look behind the scenes on how Steven Guilbeault’s resignation went down. It’s a tale of deception, freezing Guilbeault out during the process, undermining all of the work on climate action that had been done on this point, creating special carve-outs for Alberta that will piss off every other province, and breaking the word that had been given to Elizabeth May in order to secure her support. And then, they wanted Guilbeault to say some bullshit thing like he was “putting them on notice” until April or something like that, and it was untenable for him to stay, so he resigned. It was complete amateur hour. And Carney undermining his word is a very big problem, particularly because when he was a central banker, his word needed to be believed in order for it to have power. That’s why central bankers need to be ruthlessly apolitical, so that they don’t have the appearance of making calls for partisan benefit. Carney has undermined his credibility entirely because he has shown that his word now means nothing.
This point is disturbing: Guilbeault "was also deeply troubled by the ease with which the PMO was casting aside its moral obligation to May. What was the Liberals’ word worth?"Mark Carney seems to have forgotten the first rule of central banking: Your word, your credibility, is all.
— Blayne Haggart (@bhaggart.bsky.social) 2025-11-29T02:23:29.613Z
There are some particular threads in here that should be unpacked, which is that the motivation for this whole exercise seems to have been that they felt it “necessary for Canadian unity and to combat separatism in Alberta.” This doesn’t achieve that at all. It weakens unity because it gives Alberta special treatment that includes a lower carbon price and an exemption from other emission regulations that no other province gets, which makes it look an awful lot like they got it because the whined the loudest (and they’re not wrong). And it will do nothing about separatism because it fundamentally misunderstands it. It’s not about “unfair treatment,” because that was never the case—it was about a culture of grievance.
Albertans have been force-fed grievance porn for decades, like a goose being fattened for fois gras.You'll never guess what happens next…
— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-11-28T22:43:39.019Z
To that end, Danielle Smith is at the UCP annual general meeting this weekend, and when she crowed to the crowd about all the things she secured from Carney—she got him to bend the knee, give her everything she wants, and she has to give up pretty much nothing in exchange—they booed her. Nothing any government will do will actually satisfy them, because they don’t know how to process success. They have been force-fed grievances by successive premiers as a way of distracting from their failures and the fact that they have tied themselves to the external forces of world oil prices, and it’s not giving them unlimited wealth anymore. They don’t have the same future they hoped for because world oil prices never recovered after 2014, and the industry is increasing productivity, laying off workers while increasing production. They’re angry about that, and they’ve been conditioned to blame Ottawa, ever since the 1980s when they blamed the National Energy Programme for a global collapse in oil prices, and they’ve been blaming Ottawa and anyone named Trudeau ever since. Jason Kenney in particular threw gasoline on that fire, and then pretended like he wanted to put it out by pouring a glass of water on that fire and patted himself on the back for it, and then Danielle Smith came in with a brand-new box of matches. There is no satisfying them, and Carney was a fool for thinking he could swoop in and be the hero. Now he’s alienating voters in BC and Quebec where he can’t afford to lose seats, for no gain in Alberta of Saskatchewan. He didn’t outplay Danielle Smith—he capitulated, and got nothing in return, just like every time he has capitulated to Trump.
Danielle Smith gets booed at UCP convention after mentioning working with Canada
— Scott Robertson (@sarobertson.bsky.social) 2025-11-28T22:17:35.805Z
Ukraine Dispatch
Russian drones and missiles attacked Kyiv overnight, killing at least one and injuring at least eleven. Ukrainian forces are still fighting in Kupiansk, in spite of Russian claims that they control the settlement. President Zelenskyy says that his chief of staff has resigned over the ongoing corruption investigations.
Good reads:
Odds and ends:
Steven Guilbeault resigns from cabinet after Danielle Smith threatens to build new pipeline through his house
— The Beaverton (@thebeaverton.com) 2025-11-28T21:24:19.392Z
Hey BSers! Need a copy of my book, for yourself or for a holiday gift? @dundurnpress.bsky.social is having their holiday sale! Use code HOLIDAY25 to save 25% on this, or any Dundurn book. Check out my book #UnbrokenMachine, or the book I contributed a chapter to, #RoyalProgress.
— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T02:01:04.435Z
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