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DRC Ebola outbreak puts neighbours on high alert

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Health authorities battling to contain an outbreak of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are urging neighbouring countries to be vigilant and strengthen response plans to stop the disease spreading across borders.

Since the start of the outbreak in late August, 48 confirmed and probable cases have been reported and 31 people have died in the Bulape health zone, in DRC’s southwestern Kasai province, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

About 50 WHO experts in disease surveillance, clinical care, infection prevention and control, logistics and community engagement are working alongside Congolese response teams in the affected area, where a treatment centre has been set up.

Although the disease is currently limited to this remote area, the WHO says it is working with nearby countries to ensure they are ready to rapidly detect the virus and implement control measures.

Angola, which shares a land border with Kasai province, is the top priority, due to the high risk of cross-border spread. Burundi, the Central African Republic, Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia are considered at moderate risk.

Charles Njuguna, regional advisor for strengthening country readiness at WHO Africa, said the WHO had provided ministries of health with the tools to carry out “readiness assessments” to help develop response plans and identify priorities.

“Seven of them have already completed the entire process. We are following up with other countries,” he told an online press conference Thursday (18 September), adding that the level of preparedness in these countries was currently “moderate”.

A key priority will be surveillance at ports of entry, particularly at the Angola-DRC border.

“We all know that diseases do not need permission to cross borders, they do not need visas,” Njuguna added.

“So we are working with Angola to build capacity at the ports of entry.”

WHO is also working with the International Organization for Migration on the ground in Angola to monitor the movement of people between affected areas and country borders.

Vaccination campaign

Central to efforts to contain the outbreak is a vaccination campaign underway in Bulape health zone where at least 600 people have received the Ervebo vaccine since 14 September.

Groups most at risk of infection, such as frontline health workers and people who have been in contact with those infected, are the priority targets for the operation, planned by Congolese health authorities, the WHO and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF).

About 50 WHO experts in disease surveillance, clinical care, infection prevention and control, logistics and community engagement are working alongside Congolese response teams in the affected area, where a treatment centre has been set up.

The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) has also mobilised a field team to support the DRC’s health ministry in setting up community-based surveillance.

Justus Nsio Mbeta, epidemiologist and deputy DRC country director for Africa CDC, told SciDev.Net: “This team, alongside the government, will recruit community relays, train them to search for and detect suspected cases in households during their home visits, and to be able to list contacts and follow them.”

‘Don’t panic’

Health authorities say building public trust and communicating with local communities is essential to assuage fears.

One of the challenges, says Mbeta, is that people are fearful of being found to have been in contact with an infected person.

“There is strong resistance and reluctance from the community to be denounced as a contact,” said Mbeta.

“The sick are still hiding in the community,” he added.

He says community relay teams will go “from household to household” to reassure people and advise on what to do when a person is infected or develops clinical signs of Ebola.

According to the WHO, the follow-up of contacts of confirmed cases has improved from 19 per cent a fortnight ago to more than 90 per cent. Nearly 950 contacts are currently being followed in the health zone.

“At the beginning, when the investigation was still ongoing, panic among the population was reported, but after we had confirmation [that it was Ebola] and put in place the necessary measures, and thanks to our continued engagement with the population, we did not record any new incidents of panic and displacement,” said Otim Patrick Ramadan, WHO programme manager for emergency response.

He reassured local populations: “There is no need to be afraid, no need to panic and the epidemic can be quickly contained if all the measures recommended on the ground are followed.”

These measures include putting contacts of infected people under observation for 21 days and vaccination for those deemed at risk, he said.

“Sick people should be reported quickly and taken to a health facility so that they do not expose those living under the same roof,” he added.

“They are being taken care of and any death must be reported. People should not participate in dangerous burials.”

Zaire strain

The first confirmed case in the outbreak was a 34-year-old pregnant woman, admitted on 20 August to the Bulape General Hospital with symptoms including fever, vomiting and bleeding.

Samples analysed at the National Institute of Biomedical Research in the capital Kinshasa confirmed a diagnosis of Ebola virus disease, which was identified as the Zaire strain, which can be effectively prevented with the Ervebo vaccine.

Experts say sequencing of the virus and rapid identification of the strain was crucial in facilitating a quick response to the outbreak.

Anticipating possible shortages of vaccine stocks, WHO says the International Coordinating Group on Vaccine Provision has approved the shipment of about 45,000 additional doses to the DRC.

Yap Boum, deputy head of the incident management support team at Africa CDC, said continued vigilance was critical.

“The Ebola outbreak in Kasai continues to pose a major threat to health systems, even as treatment and vaccination capacities have improved,” he told the press conference Thursday.

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The Impact of UVC Light on Indoor Air Chemistry: A Modeling Study | Environmental Science

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The Impact of UVC Wavelength on Indoor Pollutant Concentrations

Indoor concentrations of key species for different UVC wavelength ranges in a simulated kitchen are shown in

Figure 2

. The UVC lights were switched on at 07:00 h and off at 19:00 h with no occupant activities (cooking or cleaning), and no other light sources used (see Methods). Scenarios with incandescent lights and in darkness are included for comparison. The average indoor concentrations of key species with lights on, are provided in

Table S11

.

The UV225 bin (effectively a GUV222 lamp) has the most significant impact on indoor concentrations. When the light was switched on, the steady-state ozone concentration increased to 31.3 ppb (from 1.0 ppb) by 07:45 h. The rate of increase (40.4 ppb h

–1

) exceeds that measured by Link et al. (2023)

(27)

(19.4 ppbv h

–1

) and Peng et al. (2023)

(28)

(22 ppb h

–1

) at the same wavelength, but our lamp is more intense (fluence rate of 93.8 μW cm

–2

) than used in these two studies (fluence rates of 2.6 μW cm

–2

and 2.0 μW cm

–2

respectively). Ozone generation below 242 nm is driven by the photolysis of oxygen (

Reaction R1

), with the oxygen atoms recombining with oxygen molecules (

Reaction R2

). The rate of

Reaction R2

at 07:45 h is 139 ppb h

–1

.

After the initial rapid increase, ozone increased gradually, reaching a maximum concentration of 34.5 ppb at 16:18 h before returning to a background concentration (2.7 ppb) at 20:25 h, 1 h and 25 min after the light was switched off. The UV215 bin showed a similar trend in ozone concentration to UV225, but with a lower maximum of 10.6 ppb. The only other discernible ozone increases were for the UV205 and UV235 bins, which both increased ozone concentrations by 0.5 ppb within an hour. Above 240 nm, there was a lower average ozone concentration during the day (2.5 ppb) than with incandescent lighting, or with no artificial lighting at all (2.6 ppb).

The UV205 bin produces less chemistry than the UV225 bin, due to the higher intensity of the light in the latter. This result is not surprising as we have used irradiance data from a 222 nm lamp, so the irradiance peaks in this bin. Different wavelength lamps will produce different spectral intensities across the same wavelength range, so would need to be investigated to understand how results may differ to those reported here.

The total ozone formation rate at 07:05 h for the UV215 bin was 38.7 ppb h

–1

, much lower than for UV225 (173 ppb h

–1

) at this time. The most important ozone formation reaction at this time for the UV215 and UV225 bins is

Reaction R2

. Total ozone loss rates are 5.8 h

–1

and 5.7 h

–1

for the UV215 and UV225 bins respectively, and are dominated by surface deposition (ten times greater than ventilation loss for both scenarios).

Indoor OH concentration increased from 8.2 × 10

4

molecules cm

–3

to 3.1 × 10

5

molecules cm

–3

(a 280% increase), 30 min after the UV225 bin light was turned on. This sharp increase in OH concentration was caused by the photolysis of ozone to form excited state oxygen (O(

1

D)) atoms (

Reaction R4

), followed by reaction of O(

1

D) with water (

Reaction R5

) to produce OH radicals, at a rate of 0.7 ppb h

–1

for the highest diurnal OH concentration at 07:30 h.

(R4)

For the UV215 bin, the average OH concentration (3.6 × 10

4

molecules cm

–3

) was lower than for the other wavelength ranges tested, decreasing from 8.2 × 10

4

to 5.9 × 10

4

molecules cm

–3

, around 20 min after the lamp was turned on. This behavior can be explained through a consideration of ozone and OH reaction rates.

Figure 3

shows the diurnal formation and loss rates for OH for the UV215 and UV225 bins. For the UV225 bin, there was a sharp increase in the OH formation rate at 07:00 h (

Reaction R5

). The OH produced HO

2

, which reacted with NO to recycle the OH (

Figure 3

). As the HO

2

reaction with NO became less important (around 07:30 h), the OH concentration decreased, although this decrease was offset somewhat by the reaction of excited oxygen atoms with water (

Reaction R5

). For the UV215 bin, the loss rates outweighed the formation rates at 07:00 h, resulting in a decrease of OH (

Figure 3

a).

Due to the elevated ozone concentrations with the UV225 bin, average HO2 (5.1 ppt) and RO2 (41.3 ppt) concentrations were approximately 3.5 and 16.5 times higher respectively than with incandescent lighting (1.5 and 2.5 ppt). After the UV225 bin light was switched on, HO2 increased from 0.88 ppt to a peak of 6.9 ppt, before gradually decreasing until the light was switched off at 19:00 h, and returning to a background concentration of 1.5 ppt at 19:55 h. RO2 concentrations initially increased from 1.4 to 16.3 ppt at 07:42 h, then gradually increased to a maximum concentration of 62.5 ppt at 15:48 h, before returning to baseline levels (2.3 ppt) 95 min after the light was switched off. Enhanced oxidation reactions increased HO2 and RO2 concentrations for the UV215 bin, with average concentrations during the day of 2.0 and 4.6 ppt, respectively.

The UV215 and UV225 bins caused a decrease in NO concentration, owing to reaction with ozone. The average NO concentrations were 0.1 and 0.03 ppb, respectively. The lighting had little effect on NO2 concentrations, with a decrease of 0.3 ppb from the baseline value of

0.9 ppb only seen for the UV225 bin. For the UV225 bin, formaldehyde, peroxyacetylnitrates (PANs) and organic nitrates (RNO

3

, e.g., methyl nitrate, CH

3

NO

3

) had higher average diurnal indoor concentrations (9.7 ppb, 1.0 ppb, and 17.5 ppt respectively) than the other wavelength regions (see

Table S11

). The concentration of PANs for the other wavelength ranges was 0.5 ppb. The average organic nitrate concentration was lowest for the UV215 bin (5.6 ppt). Organic nitrates are formed from RO

2

and NO reactions, and the product of RO

2

and NO concentrations is lower for the UV215 bin than the other bins by almost a factor of 2.

Simulated OH reactivity increased sharply upon exposure to the UV225 bin (

Figure S3

) and increased steadily throughout the day. OH reactivity is defined by the sum of OH reactant concentrations multiplied by their respective rate coefficients with OH.

(36,72)

While the lights were on, the OH reactivity rose from 36.0 s

–1

to 55.8 s

–1

, with the largest increase between 07:00 h and 09:25 h (36.0 s

–1

to 52.0 s

–1

). OH reactivity was dominated by the reaction of OH with straight-chained aldehydes the latter of which derive from ozone oxidation of indoor surfaces, primarily skin.

Effect of Air Cleaning Devices in an Occupied Classroom

Figure 4

shows the concentrations of key indoor species, including radicals, in an occupied classroom with GUV222 or GUV254 lamps with irradiances as described in

Table 1

. The classroom had an ACR of 0.5 h

–1

(simulations 7–12). Concentration profiles in the classroom for ACRs of 0.125 and 2.0 h

–1

are given in

Figures S4 and S5

. Outdoor mixing ratios of ozone vary diurnally and follow a profile based on suburban London (see

Figure S2

).

(36)

Ozone mixing ratios increased by 1.4, 5.5, and 7.9 ppb with GUV222 lamps with average irradiances of 1, 3, and 5 μW cm

–2

respectively, owing to “residual” ozone (generated by GUV222 but not consumed by chemistry). Some of the ozone generated by GUV222 is lost through indoor chemistry (primarily surface reactions). GUV254 lamps increase ozone mixing ratios to a lesser extent. Although ozone is photolyzed at 254 nm, most of it reforms immediately, and the ≈10% remaining forms OH which is a stronger oxidant than O

3

. If there was any net loss of O

3

due to 254 nm light, it is replenished by what comes in from outdoors under our model conditions (outdoor O

3

concentration ranges between 15 and 40 ppb). There is therefore a small overall increase between 09:00–12:00 h and 13:00–15:00 h corresponding to increases in outdoor ozone. The GUV254 lamp elevated the OH concentration, whereas the GUV222 lamp decreased OH concentration. The stronger the lamp power, the larger the perturbation from the baseline level, with the GUV254 15 μW cm

–2

irradiance increasing the OH concentration by 64% at an ACR of 0.5 h

–1

. There was also an increase in OH when relative humidity was increased from 37.5% to 60% for both GUV222 (<2 × 10

4

molecules cm

–3

) and GUV254 (≈1 × 10

5

molecules cm

–3

) in simulations 9 and 12 respectively (

Figure S6

). In the case of indoor ozone, surface chemistry dominates its indoor chemistry.

(73)

In the case of OH, gas-phase chemistry dominates its indoor chemistry, as is apparent from the total OH reactivity in indoor air compared to its surface removal rate.

For total organic nitrates, the GUV222 lamp decreased the mixing ratio and the GUV254 lamp increased it. The concentration of NO decreased following exposure to the GUV lamps, as enhanced ozone depleted NO. NO2 concentrations increased following initial GUV exposure, but by less than 1 ppb (5 μW cm–2 GUV222 lamp). HO2, RO2, formaldehyde and PAN mixing ratios increased following GUV light exposure, with the 15 μW cm–2 GUV254 lamp producing the highest concentrations.

However, the fact that ozone concentrations are only modestly elevated during lamp use does not mean there is no cause for concern. Increases in ozone, even at low concentrations, may drive significant increases in negative health effects such as asthma exacerbation

(74)

and mortality.

(75)

Previous work has shown that the vast majority of indoor ozone is deposited on internal surfaces.

(41,53,73,76,77)

The chemical detail inherent in INCHEM-Py has allowed us to explore surface interactions following lamp use in greater detail than in previous studies.

Figure 5

a,b show the change in mixing ratio of a subset of surface-derived oxidative products in the occupied classroom for our simulations (note that the model simulations do not account for all oxidation products (in air and on surfaces) produced by ozone chemistry in the classroom). The ozone-surface reactions are the reason why the ozone increase induced by GUV lamps often appear to be modest,

(78)

but these secondary products can also have deleterious health effects.

Figure 5

c shows the concentration changes without occupants.

Figure 5

a shows that the highest increase of surface-derived oxidation products arises from a GUV222 lamp with an irradiance of 5 μW cm

–2

at the lowest ACR of 0.125 h

–1

(simulation 3). Nonanal, decanal and 4-oxopentanal (4-OPA) were the highest contributors to total surface oxidation product mixing ratios, contributing 1.4, 1.8, and 0.5 ppb respectively to the total. Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde were mainly emitted following ozone reactions on wooden surfaces, with nonanal, decanal and 4-OPA deriving from oxidation of constituents of skin surface lipids.

(65,79)

Nonanal is also emitted when ozone reacts with carpet fibers and kitchen surfaces soiled with cooking oil.

(80,81)

In the classroom with the GUV254 lamp and at all ACRs, the mixing ratios of acetone, pentanal and hexanal all decreased relative to the classroom without the lamp. A decrease in acetone concentration was observed in a previous investigation of GUV254.

(82)

Ozone mixing ratios were approximately three times higher without occupants compared to with occupants (

Figure S7

), owing to effective uptake onto the skin surface when people are present.

(83)

Because less ozone deposited onto skin surfaces in the unoccupied simulations, it was available to react on other surfaces (wood, linoleum and painted surfaces), which also produce secondary products. Some secondary products only derive from people in our simulations, so the concentrations of 4-OPA, formic acid and acetic acid are all higher in the presence of occupants (

Figure 5

a), especially in the low ACR setting. However, our simulations show that decanal mixing ratios are highest in the unoccupied classroom, despite this compound being a major product when ozone reacts with skin oil.

(79,84)

This observation is driven by the decanal yields we use in the model, which are based on measurements of decanal emissions from painted walls and linoleum.

(81)

There are no obvious chemical degradation mechanisms for paints or linoleum to produce decanal, so these measurements could reflect skin oil contamination on the tested samples. Consequently, the decanal concentrations observed in the unoccupied classroom likely represent emissions from soiled building materials, rather than direct emissions from the building materials themselves. Clearly, more measurements of emission yields from building materials would be beneficial in this respect.

Table 2

shows the total loss rate (TLR) of ozone from all loss routes in the model at peak ozone concentration, and the total ozone production rate from all sources (PR) for each simulation averaged between 09:00–12:00 h. Note that PR also includes net infiltration from outdoor ozone. The distribution of ozone loss rates to surfaces, by photolysis, reactions with NO

x

(NO + NO

2

), VOCs and ventilation are also given in

Table 2

. The net loss rates of ozone (h

–1

) through chemistry (O

3

LR

Chemistry

) and ventilation (O

3

LR

Ventilation

) are given in

Table S12

, where O

3

LR

Chemistry

includes loss to surfaces, photolysis, VOCs and NO

x

.

Table 2. Change in SPCP (ΔSPCP

mod

) (ppb), O

3

PR (mg h

–1

), O

3

TLR (h

–1

), and the Distribution of Ozone Loss in a Classroom (%) to Surfaces (

LSurf

), Photolysis (

LPhotolysis

), Reaction with NO

x

, Reaction with VOCs (

LVOCs

) and Ventilation (

LVent

)

The change in secondary product creation potential (SPCP) for each simulation (averaged between 09:00–15:00 h) is also given in

Table 2

. SPCP is a metric to assess the production of pollutants which may impact on human health.

(85)

A modified version of the SPCP (ΔSPCP

mod

) considers the sum of secondary pollutants derived from GUV-initiated chemistry (

eq 6

), having subtracted the baseline run with lamps turned off.

(6)

Many of the products of indoor ozone chemistry have unknown toxicities and some of them have only been identified within the past decade.

(86−88)

The ΔSPCP

mod

understates the impact on human health (e.g., it does not include SOA), but provides a good metric to compare potentially harmful pollutant concentrations between simulations.

Ozone loss to different sinks varies by simulation. For example, in simulation 9, 78.0% of ozone is lost onto surfaces, whereas 7.5% of ozone is lost via reaction with NOx (predominantly reaction with NO). Photolysis (3.8%), ventilation (10.5%) and reaction with gas-phase VOCs (0.2%) account for the remainder of the ozone loss. Ozone loss through reaction with NOx is most important (12.0% loss) in simulation 7, which has a GUV222 lamp with a 1 μW cm–2 irradiance assuming an ACR of 0.5 h–1. On average, 99% of O3 loss through reaction with NOx was via NO rather than NO2.

In simulation 19, 0.43 ppb of acrolein is formed, which is over the CDC intermediate and chronic exposure limit.

(89−91)

Simulations 2, 3, and 9 also yield increases in acrolein (0.09, 0.14, and 0.09 ppb respectively). Acrolein can be formed from ozone-surface chemistry on wood.

(92)

The SPCP provides a relative measure of potentially harmful products formed through different simulations, but is clearly not a definitive measure of all harmful products that are formed. GUV222 lamps had an average SPCP (5.1 ppb) more than 14 times greater than GUV254 lamps (0.36 ppb) in occupied settings. Unoccupied classrooms had higher SPCPs, mainly driven by the higher ozone concentrations. In an occupied classroom, the highest increase in SPCP was for a GUV222 lamp with an irradiance of 5 μW cm

–2

, assuming an ACR of 0.125 h

–1

(simulation 3). In this simulation, ozone deposited mainly onto surfaces (little is lost to outdoors), leading to the formation of secondary pollutants (

Table 2

). The ozone loss to occupant surfaces is approximately 2.5 times greater than to inanimate surfaces.

Sørensen et al. (2024)

(93)

deployed GUV222 lamps in furnished offices and found average ozone production rates of 1040 ± 87 μg h

–1 93

for an average ACR of 0.2 h

–1

. This value compares well to our O

3

PR of 1.07, 1.08, and 1.23 mg h

–1

in simulations 3, 9, and 15, respectively, in an occupied classroom during GUV222 deployment. Our O

3

LR

Chemistry

(1.28, 1.41, and 1.64 h

–1

) in simulations 19–21 in unoccupied classrooms also compare well to the

kloss

values in unoccupied offices in Sørensen et al. (2024)

(93)

(0.83–1.37 h

–1

). Our simulated ozone concentrations were lower than those observed by Link et al. (2023)

(27)

and Peng et al. (2023)

(28)

of 53 and 80 ppb, respectively, following 4 h exposure to a GUV222 lamp. However, these studies took place in a stainless steel and a Teflon chamber respectively, where less surface loss would be expected. In a restroom with elevated terpenoid concentrations, however, ozone concentrations only increased by 5 ppb upon GUV222 deployment.

(30)

These studies appear to show an increase in ozone concentration from GUV222 lighting in “real-life” microenvironments and is in good agreement with our model results.

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Trump Just Torpedoed Investors’ Big Bets on Decarbonizing Shipping

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Today, members of the International Maritime Organization decided to postpone a major vote on the world’s first truly global carbon pricing scheme. The yearlong delay came in response to a pressure campaign led by the U.S.

The Net-Zero Framework — initially approved in April by an overwhelming margin and long expected to be formally adopted today — would establish a legally binding requirement for the shipping industry to cut its emissions intensity, with interim steps leading to net zero by 2050.

In the intervening months, however, U.S. opposition has gotten much louder. On Thursday, Trump posted on Truth Social that he’s “outraged that the International Maritime Organization is voting in London this week to pass a global Carbon Tax.” He also took the extraordinary step of threatening not to comply with the rules. “The United States will NOT stand for this Global Green New Scam Tax on Shipping, and will not adhere to it in any way, shape, or form.” If the framework ever does pass, noncompliance could subject U.S. vessels to fines or even denial of entry at the ports of IMO member countries, potentially setting off a cycle of retaliatory measures from all sides.

No specific date has yet been scheduled for the forthcoming vote, which will be taken again a year from now. That throws plans for the world’s largest shipping companies — some of which have already taken expensive measures to decarbonize their fleets — into turmoil. The framework would have marked a major turning point for a sector that’s responsible for 3% of global emissions, of course. But even more importantly, it would have made a range of decarbonization technologies — from advanced batteries and clean fuels to wind-assisted propulsion and onboard carbon capture — far more viable and attractive to investors.

Kate Danaher, managing director of the oceans team at S2G Investments, has a vested interest in the frameworks’ eventual passage. “Over the past two years people have really started investing around the anticipation of something like the Net-Zero Framework being adopted,” Danaher told me. For its part, S2G has invested in Sofar Ocean, which focuses on fuel savings through route optimization, battery company Echandia which is aiming to electrify smaller vessels, and ocean data and monitoring companies Xocean and Apeiron Lab.

The new rules were originally set to take effect in 2028, and would apply to large vessels — ships of 5,000 gross tonnage or more — involved in international voyages. Qualifying ships would be assigned a base target for emissions intensity and a stricter “direct compliance target.” For every metric ton of CO2 equivalent that exceeds the compliance target but falls below the base target, ships must pay $100. For all emissions that exceed the base target, ships must pay $380 per metric ton. Noncompliant ships would pay these penalties by purchasing so-called “remedial units” from a central IMO registry, while the cleanest vessels — those performing better than their compliance targets — would earn surplus units they can sell to others or bank for future use.

Green shipping fuels such as e-methanol, e-hydrogen, and e-ammonia — all produced from green hydrogen using renewable electricity — stand to be the biggest winners, she said. “A new fuel would completely decarbonize the industry. That is 10 years out, and is completely contingent on the IMO,” Danaher said, explaining that if the framework ultimately fails, there’s no economic incentive to adopt these more expensive fuels, which also require costly retrofits for existing fleets. But the framework would effectively cause the cost of conventional fuel to rise just as alternative fuels are scaling up, which would allow them to reach parity around 2035, she said.

A specialized agency within the United Nations, the IMO gets its power to set global regulations from the vastness of the ocean itself. Most of the world’s waters exist outside the jurisdiction of any national government. Because of that, IMO member states — which represent the vast majority of global shipping tonnage — have ratified treaties that empower the organization to set safety, security, and environmental standards on the high seas, which members then implement and enforce through their own national laws. Only member states have a stake in IMO policy. Furthermore, vessels that aren’t IMO-compliant face penalties such as fees and even possible detentions when entering the ports of IMO countries.

While IMO decisions are typically made via negotiated consensus, the contentious nature of these new regulations necessitates a vote. U.S. officials celebrated the delay. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio posted on X that the postponement represents “another HUGE win for @POTUS,” going on to say that “the United States prevented a massive UN tax hike on American consumers that would have funded progressive climate pet projects.”

Along with Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, and Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy, Rubio last week issued a statement threatening to punish nations that voted in favor of these “activist-driven climate policies” with actions such as banning their ships from U.S. ports, imposing vessel fees, and even leveling sanctions on officials supportive of the regulations.

Saudi Arabia — the world’s second largest oil producer after the U.S. — also strongly opposed the framework, as did a host of other oil-producing Middle Eastern countries, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Thailand, Russia and Venezuela. Singapore ultimately put forth the motion to delay the adoption vote for a full year and Saudi Arabia called it to a vote. It passed with a simple majority, with 57 countries approving and 49 opposed.

When it comes to costs, Trump officials might actually have a point, Danaher conceded. “Once alternative fuels come online and people are actively paying penalties, it gets a lot more expensive,” she told me. “I don’t see how this isn’t incredibly inflationary to the global market in 10 years.”

Today’s standard low-sulfur fuel, she explained, costs about $500 per metric ton. But reaching the same energy density with e-methanol, for example, could push the price to around $2,000 a metric ton. “That is all going to get passed on, essentially, to the consumer,” she said.

Even so, the framework has the backing of major shipping trade organizations and industry giants alike, from the International Chamber of Shipping to Maersk. As a group of leading international maritime associations put it in an open letter last week, “Only global rules will decarbonise a global industry. Without the Framework, shipping would risk a growing patchwork of unilateral regulations, increasing costs without effectively contributing to decarbonisation.”

Indeed, a universal set of coherent rules is what many in the sector want most, Danaher affirmed. Some voting bodies, such as the EU and Singapore, have already set their own shipping-related emissions requirements, creating a regulatory patchwork that’s both costly and confusing for companies to comply with. “I think most people are like, let’s just do this. Let’s rip the Band-Aid off, and let’s get clarity,” Danaher told me.

In a statement released after the vote’s delay and the conclusion of the IMO’s days-long meeting in London, Thomas A. Kazakos, the shipping chamber’s secretary general, said, “We are disappointed that member states have not been able to agree a way forward at this meeting. Industry needs clarity to be able to make the investments needed to decarbonise the maritime sector, in line with the goals set out in the IMO GHG strategy.”

The delay also risks delegitimizing the power of the IMO as a whole, something the organization’s Secretary-General, Arsenio Dominguez, warned about in the meeting’s opening remarks on Tuesday, when he stated that “Prolonged uncertainty will put off investments and diminish confidence in IMO.”

There would be other ways for shippers to comply with the framework besides switching to e-fuels, Danaher told me. For example, S2G’s portfolio company Sofar Ocean operates a network of ocean sensors designed to improve marine weather predictions and power a route optimization platform that can help ships save time, fuel, and ultimately, emissions.

Software solutions have a pretty low barrier to adoption. But a step up in complexity — and cost — would involve a technology such as wind-assisted propulsion. The companies Norsepower and Anemoi, for example, use a cylindrical “rotor sail” that creates a powerful thrust as it spins, which they say allows for up to 25% to 30% fuel savings. Another approach is the “rigid wing sail,” such as that developed by Bar Technologies. This generates lift in the direction of the ship’s movement with less drag than a normal sail — similar to how an airplane wing works.

Pairing route optimization with wind-assisted propulsion will generate even greater emissions savings, as the software can direct ships towards areas with the most advantageous winds. Given the obvious co-benefits and cost savings stemming from lower fuel use, Danaher thinks this tech could gain traction even if the regulations ultimately fail to pass next year. “I think the adoption curve will still continue without IMO [Net-Zero Framework], but I think it'll be slower,” she told me.

One approach she doesn’t think will be economically viable without the framework is onboard carbon capture. This tech, which traps carbon dioxide from a ship’s exhaust system before it’s released into the atmosphere, is being explored by startups including Seabound — which I reported on last year — and Value Maritime, as well as more established companies such as Mitsubishi and Wartsila. “A lot of the carbon capture technologies have not yet solved for how to turn that captured carbon into a valuable resource, and how to get it off the boat, put it in a pipeline, and sell it,” Danaher told me.” The economic incentive just isn't there without the IMO.”

At the same time, when I talked to one of Seabound’s backers — Clea Kolster, of Lowercarbon Capital — last year, she told me that when it comes to cargo shipping, “carbon capture is probably the only way that you can get a meaningful amount of emissions reductions in any near term way.” And it’s true that alternative fuels will take a while to scale up, so if the framework is ultimately adopted, carbon capture may still have an important role to play — at least that’s what investors and startups alike are banking on. “Everybody's talking about carbon capture in anticipation of this getting adopted,” Danaher told me. “All these vessels are going to be old, they’re going to need to comply, and they’re not going to be able to comply fast enough,” she said.

Amidst the turmoil, one silver lining is that interest in maritime innovation and efficiency appears to be increasing regardless of global frameworks. For one, the surge in global military spending has underscored this tech’s potential for dual-use applications. “A lot of wars happen in and around the oceans, because that’s where we intersect each other the most.” Danaher told me. Many of S2G’s investments in ocean tech have received additional backing from governments and defense agencies looking to make their fleets more efficient, energy resilient, and secure. “Every single one of our ocean tech companies, one of their customers is the government, or many governments,” she said.

It’s an important reminder that there are many practical reasons for investors and states alike to support a decarbonization agenda, regardless of whether the U.S. is on board or not. But a global system of carrots and sticks sure wouldn’t hurt either. And now, we face the uneasy prospect of waiting another year to see whether the shipping industry will resist the Trump-era pushback or abandon its collective ambitions for a decarbonized future.



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Long COVID is here to stay—even in children - The Lancet Infectious Diseases

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Post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC, also known as long COVID) are complex, multisystem, long-lasting complications of SARS-CoV-2 infection that profoundly impact the daily life of those affected and have been documented in adults and children globally, regardless of the severity of the initial infection.

1

Most studies of long COVID to date have focused on first infections, particularly with pre-omicron variants. Whether reinfections—especially with omicron or later variants—can also lead to long COVID in children and adolescents remains a crucial, unanswered question. For instance, multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, a severe post-acute complication of SARS-CoV-2, has largely disappeared with new variants and increasing population immunity.

2

In a new study, Bingyu Zhang and colleagues provide compelling evidence that the same trajectory does not hold true for paediatric long COVID.

3

Using real-world data from the RECOVER Initiative—encompassing 40 children's hospitals and health institutions across the USA—Chen and colleagues analysed the risk of long COVID after SARS-CoV-2 reinfection between Jan 1, 2022, and Oct 13, 2023. The study included 465 717 individuals younger than 21 years (mean age 8·17 years [SD 6·58]; 233 842 [50·2%] patients were male and 231 875 [49·8%] were female). Long COVID was identified using two approaches: the ICD-10-CM diagnosis code U09·9 (primary endpoint) and a list of physician-defined symptoms and conditions possibly associated with paediatric PASC. The incidence rate of long COVID diagnosis was 903·7 (95% CI 780·9–1026·5) per million people per 6 months in the first infection group, rising to 1883·7 (1565·1–2202·3) per million people per 6 months after reinfection. Reinfection was associated with more than double the risk of a long COVID diagnosis (relative risk 2·08 [95% CI 1·68–2·59]). A wide range of related symptoms and conditions were also significantly more common after reinfection.

These findings reinforce an urgent message that children and adolescents can develop long COVID not only after an initial infection, but also after reinfection. The public health implications are substantial.

Before this study, estimates suggested that nearly 6 million children in the USA might be affected by long COVID, which is more than the number living with asthma—the most common chronic illness in children.

4

Previous research has shown that long COVID symptoms can persist for up to 36 months or longer in children.

5

The new evidence that reinfections can trigger or worsen this chronic condition suggests that the societal burden is set to grow. With no therapy currently available, the number of children living with a chronic and often debilitating illness will continue to rise. Children with long COVID often have symptoms that prevent them from attending school, playing sports, or socialising—fundamental parts of childhood development. A generation of children missing these milestones could have long-term economic and psychological impacts for society.

Since reinfections can trigger long COVID at any age, one obvious strategy would be prevention (ie, limiting the number of reinfections). Non-pharmacological interventions, such as wearing facemasks, might be useful in preventing transmission in controlled settings but have had low long-term success on a broader scale at the population level.

6

Promising approaches, such as air quality improvements in schools and workplaces, are still in the early stages of evidence building and implementation.

6

Vaccines, although effective in reducing severe disease, offer only modest protection against long COVID, and many countries have already scaled back or ended vaccination campaigns.

5,7

Given these limitations, prevention of infection alone will not be enough to reduce the public health impact of long COVID. Finding a cure for long COVID needs to become a top research and health-care priority. Although clinical trials in adults are ongoing and increasing in numbers, none have yet been launched for children.

8

Paediatric trials are often delayed due to ethical and regulatory challenges, meaning that children need to wait for efficacy and safety of treatments to be shown in adults before accessing them. This delay leaves millions of children without treatment during crucial developmental years.

Dedicated paediatric long COVID research centres are urgently needed to facilitate access to future trials and ensure early diagnosis, symptom management, and psychosocial support. Recognition of long COVID as an organic, multisystem illness—even with a diagnostic code that is recognised globally—is still lacking in many clinical settings, with symptoms often attributed to psychological causes.

9,10

Studies such as the one by Zhang and colleagues challenge that narrative, documenting strong associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection and myocarditis, changes in taste and smell, thrombophlebitis and thromboembolism, acute kidney injury, fluid and electrolyte disturbance, generalised pain, arrhythmias, fatigue and malaise, abdominal pain, postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome or dysautonomia, cognitive impairment, and respiratory problems.

The take-home message from this study is clear: long COVID is here to stay, even in children, and can be exacerbated by reinfections and sustained by high viral circulation. Governments, health-care systems, and funding bodies must act now by prioritising long COVID as a major medical and research focus, enabling access to care, and ensuring children are not left behind. Without decisive action, the long-term societal cost of long COVID will continue to rise.

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Lauer is super concerned about the demoralizing impact of low success rates…now that it is white folks being affected | DrugMonkey

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Mike Lauer, prior head of the Office of Extramural Research at the NIH, has been quoted in a recent Nature news bit by Max Kozlov on the Fiscal Year 2025 grant funding picture.

Kozlov writes, in part, about the way that Multi-Year Funding has decreased the number of new grant awards, thereby letting success rates for grant applications “hit all-time lows*”.

“That is extremely demoralizing,” says Michael Lauer, who for about ten years ran the NIH’s ‘extramural’ arm, which funds researchers at institutions across the United States. “We want people to be excited about being in science. And if the likelihood of success is so low, you might have to close your lab. This will do even more to chase people away from doing science in the US.”

Is it, Mike? Is it extremely demoralizing to have a low likelihood of success? Is that likely to chase people away from doing science in the US?

Lauer served as head of the OER from October 2015 until his abrupt resignation in February of this year, meaning that he came into the job midway between the publication of Ginther et al, 2011 and Hoppe et al, 2019. In fact, Lauer was an author on the Hoppe et al., 2019 paper. He then went on to author pieces in eLife which were designed, in essence, to shed NIH of any responsibility for the Ginther gap. This gap refers to the finding, replicated by Hoppe et al., that R01 applications with Black PIs had about 60% of the success rate of applications that had white PIs. In Ginther et al., 2011, it was 29.3% for white PI apps and 17.1% for Black PI apps. In the subsequent Hoppe…Lauer…. et al., 2019, paper these success rates had fallen to 17.7% for white PI apps and to 10.7% for Black PI apps.

In each case, this means about 60% of the success rate enjoyed by white PIs. That’s what Black PIs faced for at least the FY2000-FY2015 interval and as far as we know, since they never bragged about fixing it, this is still the situation right up through the end of Mike Lauer’s time as the guy in charge of distributing extramural NIH grants.

Of course reality is even grimmer than the 60% figure. That’s because of the dismal math of the cumulative probability of NIH grant award. This graph shows that to get the grant award cumulative probability well above 80%, a white applicant, under Lauer, had to put in about 9-10 proposals whereas a Black applicant had to submit 17-18 proposals. Eighty percent more applications!

Lauer, as far as we can tell, did not fix this Ginther gap. We can assume this because he never came out and bragged about how the NIH had fixed it. Instead he pivoted to talking about per-applicant success rates instead of per-application success. That made the number look closer, because it only took one successful application in the year to equate the Black PI’s chances with those of a white PI. So if the former put in 10 applications to get one award and the latter only put in three applications, this was same-same. Hardly. And even so, they didn’t close the per-applicant gap either.

It is absolutely disgusting for Mike Lauer to now express himself as hugely concerned with all-time low success rates now that this will hit his favored category of white PI. He was IN CHARGE of how grants were awarded and did nothing about the demoralizing effect of lower success rates for Black applicants. Now he says “We want people to be excited about being in science.

I guess “people” really only means “white people” to Mike Lauer.

*We don’t actually have success rate data yet but this is nearly inevitable.

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Jury nullification - Wikipedia

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Type of jury verdict in criminal trials

Jury nullification, also known as jury equity[1] or as a perverse verdict,[2][3] is a decision by the jury in a criminal trial resulting in a verdict of not guilty even though they think a defendant has broken the law. The jury's reasons may include the belief that the law itself is unjust,[4][5] that the prosecutor has misapplied the law in the defendant's case,[6] that the punishment for breaking the law is too harsh, or general frustrations with the criminal justice system. It has been commonly used to oppose what jurors perceive as unjust laws, such as those that once penalized runaway slaves under the Fugitive Slave Act, prohibited alcohol during Prohibition, or criminalized draft evasion during the Vietnam War.[7][8][9] Some juries have also refused to convict due to their own prejudices in favor of the defendant.[10] Such verdicts are possible because a jury has an absolute right to return any verdict it chooses.[11]

Nullification is not an official part of criminal procedure, but is the logical consequence of two rules governing the systems in which it exists:

  1. Jurors cannot be punished for passing an incorrect verdict.[12]
  2. In many jurisdictions, a defendant who is acquitted cannot be tried a second time for the same offense.[13]

A jury verdict that is contrary to the letter of the law pertains only to the particular case before it; however, if a pattern of acquittals develops in response to repeated attempts to prosecute a particular offence, this can have the de facto effect of invalidating the law. Such a pattern may indicate public opposition to an unwanted legislative enactment. It may also happen that a jury convicts a defendant even if no law was broken, although such a conviction may be overturned on appeal. Nullification can also occur in civil trials;[14] unlike in criminal trials, if the jury renders a not liable verdict that is clearly at odds with the evidence, the judge can issue a judgment notwithstanding the verdict or order a new trial.[15]

In the past, it was feared that a single judge or panel of government officials might be unduly influenced to follow established legal practice, even when that practice had drifted from its origins. In most modern Western legal systems, judges often instruct juries to act only as "finders of fact", whose role it is to determine the veracity of the evidence presented, the weight accorded to the evidence,[16] to apply that evidence to the law as explained by the judge, and to reach a verdict; but not to question the law itself. Similarly, juries are routinely cautioned by courts and some attorneys not to allow sympathy for a party or other affected persons to compromise the fair and dispassionate evaluation of evidence. These instructions are criticized by advocates of jury nullification. Some commonly cited historical examples of jury nullification involve jurors refusing to convict persons accused of violating the American Fugitive Slave Act by assisting runaway slaves or being fugitive slaves themselves, and refusal of American colonial juries to convict a defendant under English law.[7]

Jury nullification is the source of much debate. Some maintain that it is an important safeguard of last resort against wrongful imprisonment and government tyranny.[17][18] Some view it as a violation of the right to a jury trial, which undermines the law;[18] whereas others, such as those members of Congress who voted to impeach Supreme Court Justice Samuel Chase for instructing a jury against nullification, view a jury as a body charged with judging both law and fact. Some view it as a violation of the oath sworn by jurors. In the United States, some view the requirement that jurors take an oath to be unlawful in itself, while still others view the oath's reference to "deliverance" to require nullification of unjust law: "will well and truly try and a true deliverance make between the United States and the defendant at the bar, and a true verdict render according to the evidence, so help [me] God". United States v. Green, 556 F.2d 71 (D.C. Cir. 1977).[19]

Some fear that nullification could be used to permit violence against socially unpopular factions.[20] They point to the danger that a jury may choose to convict a defendant who has not broken the letter of the law.[citation needed] However, judges retain the rights both to decide sentences and to disregard juries' guilty verdicts (not guilty verdicts cannot be disregarded), acting as a check against malicious juries. Jury nullification may also occur in civil suits, in which the verdict is generally a finding of liability or lack of liability (rather than a finding of guilty or not guilty).[21]

The main ethical issue involved in jury nullification is the tension between democratic self-government and integrity.[22] The argument has been raised that prosecutors are not allowed to seek jury nullification, and therefore defendants should not be allowed to seek it either;[23] however, for a prosecutor to nullify a law in this context would require negating the presumption of innocence. For this reason, prosecutorial nullification is typically defined as declining to prosecute.[24] Nevertheless, there is little doubt as to the ability of a jury to nullify the law. Today, there are several issues raised by jury nullification, such as:

  1. Whether juries can or should be instructed or informed of their power to nullify.
  2. Whether a judge may remove jurors "for cause" when they refuse to apply the law as instructed.
  3. Whether a judge may punish a juror for practicing jury nullification.
  4. Whether all legal arguments, except perhaps on motions in limine to exclude evidence, should be made in the presence of the jury.

In some cases in the United States, a stealth juror will attempt to get on a jury in order to nullify the law.[25] Some lawyers use a shadow defense to expose the jury to information that would otherwise be inadmissible, hoping that evidence will trigger a nullification.[26][27]

The early history of juries supports the recognition of the de facto power of nullification. By the 12th century, common law courts in England began using juries for more than administrative duties. Juries were composed primarily of "laymen" from the local community and provided a somewhat efficient means of dispute resolution with the benefit of supplying legitimacy. The general power of juries to decide on verdicts was recognised in the English Magna Carta of 1215,[28] which put into words existing practices:

No free man shall be captured, and or imprisoned, or disseised of his freehold, and or of his liberties, or of his free customs, or be outlawed, or exiled, or in any way destroyed, nor will we proceed against him by force or proceed against him by arms, but by the lawful judgment of his peers, or by the law of the land.

For a trivial offence, a free man shall be fined only in proportion to the degree of his offence, and for a serious offence correspondingly, but not so heavily as to deprive him of his livelihood. In the same way, a merchant shall be spared his merchandise, and a husbandman the implements of his husbandry, if they fall upon the mercy of a royal court. None of these fines shall be imposed except by the assessment on oath of reputable men of the neighbourhood.

Largely, the earliest juries returned verdicts in accordance with the wishes of the judge or the Crown. This was achieved either by "packing the jury" or by "writs of attaint". Juries were packed by hand-selecting or by bribing the jury so as to return the desired verdict. That was a common tactic in cases involving treason or sedition. In addition, the writ of attaint allowed a judge to retry the case in front of a second jury when the judge believed the first jury returned a "false verdict". If the second jury returned a different verdict, that verdict was imposed, and the first jury was imprisoned or fined.

That history is marked by a number of notable exceptions, several of which claim rights commonly recognized as fundamental in modern democratic societies, such as freedom of speech and of the press, and freedom of religious practice. In 1554, a jury acquitted Sir Nicholas Throckmorton but was severely punished by the court. Almost a century later, in 1649, in the first known attempt to argue for jury nullification, a jury likewise acquitted John Lilburne for his part in inciting a rebellion against Oliver Cromwell's regime. Lilburne had been charged with seditious libel for the publication of articles critical of the government; the jury were instructed to give a verdict only on whether the text was published, and to leave the issue of libel to the judge, while Lilburne argued the jury should give a general verdict and should judge whether the law's restraint on speech against the government was just. The theoretician and politician Eduard Bernstein wrote of Lilburne's trial:

His contention that the constitution of the Court was contrary to the fundamental laws of the country was unheeded, and his claim that the jury was legally entitled to judge not only as to matters of fact but also as to the application of the law itself, as the Judges represented only 'Norman intruders', whom the jury might here ignore in reaching a verdict, was described by an enraged judge as 'damnable, blasphemous heresy'. This view was not shared by the jury, which, after three days' hearing, acquitted Lilburne—who had defended himself as skillfully as any lawyer could have done—to the great horror of the Judges and the chagrin of the majority of the Council of State. The Judges were so astonished at the verdict of the jury that they had to repeat their question before they would believe their ears, but the public which crowded the judgment hall, on the announcement of the verdict, broke out into cheers so loud and long as, according to the unanimous testimony of contemporary reporters, had never before been heard in the Guildhall. The cheering and waving of caps continued for over half an hour, while the Judges sat, turning white and red in turns, and spread thence to the masses in London and the suburbs. At night bonfires were lighted, and even during the following days the event was the occasion of joyful demonstrations.[29]

In 1653, Lilburne was on trial again and asked the jury to acquit him if it found the death penalty "unconscionably severe" in proportion to the crime he had committed. The jury found Lilburne "not guilty of any crime worthy of death".[30] In 1670, a petit jury refused to convict William Penn of unlawful assembly for religious practice not associated with the Church of England. The judge held the jury in contempt of court, which was ruled inappropriate by the Court of Common Pleas in Bushel's Case. In 1681, a grand jury refused to indict the Earl of Shaftesbury. In 1688, a jury acquitted the Seven Bishops of the Church of England of seditious libel. Juries continued, even in non-criminal cases, to act in defiance of the Crown. In 1763 and 1765, juries awarded £4,000 to John Wilkes and £300 to John Entick in separate suits for trespass against the Crown's messengers. In both cases, messengers had been sent by Lord Halifax to seize allegedly-libellous papers.[citation needed]

In Scotland, jury nullification had the profound effect of introducing the three-verdict system including the option of "not proven", which remains in Scotland to this day. In 1728, Carnegie of Finhaven accidentally killed the Earl of Strathmore. As the defendant had undoubtedly killed the Earl, the law, as it then stood, required the jury merely to look at the facts and to pass a verdict of "proven" or "not proven", depending on whether it believed that the facts proved the defendant had killed the Earl.[citation needed] If the jury brought in a "proven" verdict, that would lead to Carnegie's hanging though he had not intended any harm to the Earl. To avert that injustice, the jury decided to assert what it believed to be its "ancient right" to judge the whole case, not just the facts, and rendered the verdict of "not proven". Over time, juries have tended to favour the "not guilty" verdict over "not proven" and so the interpretation has changed. The "not guilty" verdict has become the normal verdict when a jury is convinced of innocence, and the "not proven" verdict is used only if the jury is not certain of innocence or guilt.[citation needed]

The standard jury trial practice in the United States during the Founding Era and for several decades afterward was to argue all issues of law in the presence of the jury so that it heard the same arguments as the bench in reaching its rulings on motions. That is evidenced by such decisions as the 1839 case Stettinius, which held, "The defense can argue law to the jury before the court gives instructions."[31] Later, judges began to demand the parties submit motions in writing, often before the jury was empaneled, to be argued and decided without the jury being present. The transition began with motions in limine to exclude evidence on which it was felt the jury should not hear the argument because it would be informed of the evidence to be excluded. Later, that was expanded to include all legal argument and so that today, the earlier practice of arguing law before the jury has been largely forgotten, and judges even declare mistrials or overturn verdicts if legal arguments are made to the jury.[citation needed]

Although extremely rare, jury nullification occurs in Canada. As the prosecution has powers to appeal the resulting acquittal, it lacks the finality found in the United States. However, the Crown cannot appeal on grounds of an unreasonable acquittal although it can appeal on errors of law. In R. v. Latimer, 2001 SCC 1,[32] the Supreme Court discussed jury nullification and indicated that it is a duty of the presiding justice to try to prevent it from occurring. Perhaps the most famous cases of jury nullification in Canada were the various trials of Henry Morgentaler, who openly operated a private abortion clinic in violation of the Criminal Code. Repeated attempts at prosecuting Morgentaler resulted in acquittals at jury trials in the 1970s and the 1980s. In the 1988 Supreme Court case, R. v. Morgentaler, 1988 SCR 30,[33] a nullification was appealed all the way to the country's highest court, which struck down the law in question. In obiter dicta, Chief Justice Dickson wrote:

The contrary principle contended for by Mr. Manning, that a jury may be encouraged to ignore a law it does not like, could lead to gross inequities. One accused could be convicted by a jury who supported the existing law, while another person indicted for the same offence could be acquitted by a jury who, with reformist zeal, wished to express disapproval of the same law. Moreover, a jury could decide that although the law pointed to a conviction, the jury would simply refuse to apply the law to an accused for whom it had sympathy. Alternatively, a jury who feels antipathy towards an accused might convict despite a law which points to acquittal. To give a harsh, but I think telling example, a jury fueled by the passions of racism could be told that they need not apply the law against murder to a white man who had killed a black man. Such a possibility need only be stated to reveal the potentially frightening implications of Mr. Manning's assertions.... It is no doubt true that juries have a de facto power to disregard the law as stated to the jury by the judge. We cannot enter the jury room. The jury is never called upon to explain the reasons which lie behind a verdict. It may even be true that in some limited circumstances the private decision of a jury to refuse to apply the law will constitute, in the words of a Law Reform Commission of Canada working paper, "the citizen's ultimate protection against oppressive laws and the oppressive enforcement of the law" (Law Reform Commission of Canada, Working Paper 27, The Jury in Criminal Trials (1980)). But recognizing this reality is a far cry from suggesting that counsel may encourage a jury to ignore a law they do not support or to tell a jury that it has a right to do so.

The Supreme Court in 2006 issued a decision, R. v. Krieger, 2006 SCC 47,[34] which confirmed that juries in Canada have the power to refuse to apply the law when their consciences require that they do so. The decision stated that "juries are not entitled as a matter of right to refuse to apply the law—but they do have the power to do so when their consciences permit of no other course".[34]

By the late 17th century, the court's power to punish juries was removed in Bushel's Case involving a juror on the case against William Penn. Penn and William Mead had been arrested in 1670 for illegally preaching a Quaker sermon and disturbing the peace but four jurors, led by Edward Bushell, refused to find them guilty. Instead of dismissing the jury, the judge sent them back for further deliberations. Despite the judge demanding a guilty verdict, the jury now unanimously found Penn guilty of preaching but acquitted him on the charge of disturbing the peace and acquitted Mead of all charges. The jury was then subsequently kept for three days without "meat, drink, fire and tobacco" to force it to bring in a guilty verdict. When it failed to do so, the judge ended the trial. As punishment, the judge ordered the jurors imprisoned until they paid a fine to the court.[35]

Four jurors refused to pay the fine, and after several months, Bushell sought a writ of habeas corpus. Chief Justice Vaughan, sitting on the Court of Common Pleas, discharged the writ, released them, called the power to punish a jury "absurd" and forbade judges from punishing jurors for returning a verdict the judge disagreed with.[36] That series of events is considered a significant milestone in the history of jury nullification.[37] The "courage and endurance" of the jury is celebrated in a plaque displayed in the Central Criminal Court (the Old Bailey) in London. In a criminal libel case, R. v. Shipley (1784), 4 Dougl. 73, 99 E.R. 774, at p. 824, Lord Mansfield, sitting as a judge in the case, disparaged the practice of jury nullification:

So the jury who usurp the judicature of law, though they happen to be right, are themselves wrong, because they are right by chance only, and have not taken the constitutional way of deciding the question. It is the duty of the Judge, in all cases of general justice, to tell the jury how to do right, though they have it in their power to do wrong, which is a matter entirely between God and their own consciences.

To be free is to live under a government by law.... Miserable is the condition of individuals, dangerous is the condition of the State, if there is no certain law, or, which is the same thing, no certain administration of law, to protect individuals, or to guard the State.

...

In opposition to this, what is contended for? – That the law shall be, in every particular cause, what any twelve men, who shall happen to be the jury, shall be inclined to think; liable to no review, and subject to no control, under all the prejudices of the popular cry of the day, and under all the bias of interest in this town, where thousands, more or less, are concerned in the publication of newspapers, paragraphs, and pamphlets. Under such an administration of law, no man could tell, no counsel could advise, whether a paper was or was not punishable [for publishing a libel].

A 2016 study exploring the history of juror punishment in England and Wales after Bushel's Case found no clear examples of jurors being punished solely for returning the "wrong" verdict. The closest that a jury came to that was in 1917, when a jury acquitted two teenage boys of arson. The boys had confessed at their pre-trial hearing but entered pleas of not guilty at their trial. Home Office civil servants suspected the difference between the pleas could be explained by the difference between the boys' admitting that they had caused the fire and their denial that they had done so maliciously. The trial judge did not consider that possibility or was not satisfied with it. On receiving the jury's verdict, he told them that "you have been absolutely regardless of your oath. These men have pleaded guilty, and the evidence is of the clearest possible nature. You are none of you fit to serve on a Jury, but you will remain here until the end of the Sessions". The foreman, George Lathan, considered that a form of punishment for the jury, as the jurors were not going to be permitted to serve on any more juries but were nonetheless required to keep attending court or face contempt proceedings, which Lathan considered a tacit form of imprisonment. Officials in the Lord Chancellor's Office noted that while the judge's conduct "was ill-judged and arbitrary, he did not, so far as I can see, do any act which would justify the Lord Chancellor in removing him from the Bench". Home Office officials wrote to the judge, advising him that his actions "would be impossible for the Home Secretary to defend as constitutional or right", and after several days, the jurors were relieved of their duties. Home Office minutes suggest they did not think that kind of informal punishment of jurors who had returned the "wrong" verdict to be unheard of.[38]

In 1982, during the Falklands War, the Royal Navy sank the Argentine cruiser, General Belgrano. Three years later a civil servant, Clive Ponting, leaked two government documents concerning the sinking of the cruiser to a Member of Parliament (Tam Dalyell) and was subsequently charged with breaching section 2 of the Official Secrets Act 1911.[39] The prosecution in the case demanded that the jury convict Ponting, as he had clearly contravened the Act by leaking official information about the sinking of the Belgrano during the Falklands War. His main defence was that it was in the public interest that the information be made available. The judge, Sir Anthony McCowan, "indicated that the jury should convict him",[40] and had ruled that "the public interest is what the government of the day says it is".[41] The jury acquitted him instead, much to the consternation of the government. In 2001, two people were charged with conspiracy to cause criminal damage to a Trident submarine in a Barrow-in-Furness shipyard. Though the two admitted their intention to trash the submarine, the two said they were planning to do so due to nuclear bombs being immoral and illegal. The judge told the juries that such ideals were not a defence against the charge. The jury brought a verdict of not guilty on these two anti-nuclear protesters.[42]

In 2021, six activists associated with the environmental protest organisation Extinction Rebellion were tried for causing criminal damage to the British headquarters of the multinational oil company Royal Dutch Shell. The judge told the jury that there was 'no defence in law' for the protestors' actions, which according to the prosecutor had caused 'significant damage' to the building, but the activists were acquitted.[43][44] In 2023, Insulate Britain members Giovanna Lewis and Amy Pritchard were jailed for seven weeks after defying the judge's ban on informing the jury of the reasons for their actions.[45] In charging them with contempt, the judge referred to an earlier case where another environmental activist was sentenced to eight weeks in prison for the same reason.[46] Following juries acquitting activists, dozens of people have been threatened with arrest for displaying signs that remind jurors of their right to make decisions based on conscience.[47][48] In 2024, a motion brought by government lawyers to prosecute the activist Trudi Warner for holding a placard stating the right to jury nullification was thrown out by a High Court judge on the basis that there was a well-established principle in law of jury equity and Warner had not broken any law.[49][50] Warner's placard had directly referenced the wording on the plaque inside the Old Bailey.[51]

In 1921, an Armenian genocide survivor, Soghomon Tehlirian, assassinated Talaat Pasha, who was considered the main architect of the genocide, in Berlin. Although Tehlirian's lawyers did not contest that their client had killed Talaat, the jury (Germany used jury trials until 1924) returned a verdict of not guilty.[52][53] However, although the moral dimension of the case was strongly emphasised by the defense, the acquittal was based on a plead of temporary insanity and there was no dissent between court and jury.[54]

In the United States, jury nullification first appeared just before the American Revolutionary War, when colonial juries frequently exercised their nullification power, principally in maritime cases and cases implicating free speech. Jury nullification became so common that many British prosecutors gave up trying maritime cases since conviction seemed hopeless.[55] Before the American Civil War, juries sometimes refused to convict for violations of the Fugitive Slave Act. Later, during Prohibition, juries often nullified alcohol control laws.[8] That resistance may have contributed to the adoption of the Twenty-first Amendment, which repealed Prohibition and the Eighteenth Amendment.

In a well-known example of jury nullification, at the end of Wild Bill Hickok's trial for the manslaughter of Davis Tutt in 1865, Judge Sempronius Boyd gave the jury two instructions. He first instructed the jury that a conviction was its only option under the law. He then instructed them that they could apply the unwritten law of the "fair fight" and acquit. Hickok was acquitted; the verdict was not necessarily universally popular with the press and public.[56][57] There have been contemporary instances of activists being arrested for informing jurists of their right of jury nullification in front of court houses, with subsequent rulings that arresting people for this activity is unconstitutional.[58]

Juries across the North acquitted defendants who had clearly breached the Fugitive Slave Act in the 1850s. Part of the Compromise of 1850, it had been passed to mollify Southern slaveowners, who were otherwise threatening to secede from the Union. Secretary of State Daniel Webster was a key supporter of the law as expressed in his famous "Seventh of March" speech. He wanted high-profile convictions, but the jury nullifications ruined his presidential aspirations and his last-ditch efforts to find a compromise between North and South. Webster led the prosecution when defendants were accused of rescuing Shadrach Minkins in 1851 from Boston officials who intended to return Minkins to his owner. The juries convicted none of the men. Webster tried to enforce a law that was extremely unpopular in the North, and his Whig Party passed over him again when it chose a presidential nominee in 1852.[59]

White defendants accused of crimes against black people and other minorities were often acquitted by all-white juries, especially in the South, even in the face of irrefutable evidence. An example is the trial of Roy Bryant and J. W. Milam.[60]

In the 21st century, many discussions of jury nullification center on drug laws, which some consider unjust in principle or because they are seen to discriminate against certain groups.[61] A jury nullification advocacy group estimated in 2016 that 3–4% of all jury trials involve nullification.[62]

In the 1895 case of Sparf v. United States, written by Associate Justice John Marshall Harlan, the US Supreme Court held 5-4 that a trial judge has no responsibility to inform the jury of the right to nullify laws.[63] That decision, often cited, has led to a common practice by US judges to penalize anyone who attempts to present a nullification argument to jurors and to declare a mistrial if such argument has been presented to them. In some states, jurors are likely to be struck from the panel during voir dire if they do not agree to accept as correct the rulings and instructions of the law as provided by the judge.[64]

In later rulings, the courts continued to prohibit informing juries about jury nullification. In a 1969, Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals decision, U.S. v. Moylan, 417 F.2d 1002 (4th Cir.1969), the Court affirmed the concept of jury nullification, but upheld the power of a court to refuse to permit an instruction to the jury to this effect.[65] In 1972, in United States v. Dougherty, 473 F.2d 1113, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit issued a ruling similar to Moylan that affirmed the de facto power of a jury to nullify the law but upheld the denial of the defense's chance to instruct the jury about the power to nullify.[66]

In 1988, the Sixth Circuit upheld a jury instruction: "There is no such thing as valid jury nullification." In United States v. Thomas (1997), the Second Circuit ruled that jurors can be removed if there is evidence that they intend to nullify the law. The Supreme Court has not recently confronted the issue of jury nullification. In 2017, a jury was instructed: "You cannot substitute your sense of justice, whatever that means, for your duty to follow the law, whether you agree with it or not. It is not for you to determine whether the law is just or whether the law is unjust. That cannot be your task. There is no such thing as valid jury nullification. You would violate your oath and the law if you willfully brought a verdict contrary to the law given to you in this case." The Ninth Circuit upheld the first three sentences of the jury's instruction and overruled the remainder but deemed that instruction a harmless error and affirmed the conviction.[67]

In 2002, South Dakota voters rejected by a 78% margin a state constitutional amendment to permit criminal defendants to argue for jury nullification.[68] On June 18, 2012, the New Hampshire General Court enacted a law explicitly allowing defense attorneys to inform juries about jury nullification.[69] On October 24, 2014, the New Hampshire Supreme Court effectively nullified the law and held that the wording of the statute does not allow defense attorneys to tell juries they can nullify a law.[70][71] The Maryland State Constitution, Declaration of Rights, states that "in the trial of all criminal cases, the Jury shall be the Judges of Law, as well as of fact, except that the Court may pass upon the sufficiency of the evidence to sustain a conviction." Nevertheless, the Maryland Courts jury service brochure states that "it is your duty to accept what the judge is saying about the law, and how it is to be applied to the case."

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