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The Secret to a Better City Is a Two-Wheeler – Mother Jones

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Luchia Brown used to bomb around Denver in her Subaru. She had places to be. Brown, 57, works part time helping to run her husband’s engineering firm while managing a rental apartment above their garage and an Airbnb out of a section of the couple’s three-story brick house. She volunteers for nonprofits, sometimes offering input to city committees, often on transportation policy. “I’m a professional good troublemaker,” she jokes when we meet in her sun-soaked backyard one fine spring day.

She’s also an environmentally conscious type who likes the idea of driving less. Brown bought a regular bike years ago, but mainly used it just for neighborhood jaunts. “I’m not uber-fit,” she says. “I’m not a slug, but I’m not one of the warriors in Lycra, and I don’t really want to arrive in a sweat.”

Then, a couple of years ago, she heard Denver was offering $400 vouchers to help residents purchase an e-bike—or up to $900 toward a hefty “cargo” model that can haul heavier loads, including children. She’d considered an e-bike, but the city’s offer provided “an extra kick in the derriere to make me do it.”

She opens her garage door to show off her purchase: a bright blue Pedego Boomerang. It’s a pricey model—$2,600 after the voucher—but “it changed my life!” she says. Nowadays, Brown thinks nothing of zipping halfway across town, her long dark-gray hair flying out behind her helmet. Hills do not faze her. Parking is hassle-free. And she can carry groceries in a crate strapped to the rear rack. She’d just ridden 4 miles to a doctor’s appointment for a checkup on a recent hip replacement. She rides so often—and at such speeds—that her husband bought his own e-bike to keep up: “I’m like, ‘Look, when you’re riding with me, it’s not about exercise. It’s about getting somewhere.’”

She ended up gifting the Subaru to her son, who works for SpaceX in Texas. The only car left is her husband’s work truck, which she uses sparingly. She prefers the weirdly intoxicating delight of navigating on human-and-battery power: “It’s joy.”

Many Denverites would agree. Over the two years the voucher program—pioneering in scale and scope—has been in effect, more than 9,000 people have bought subsidized e-bikes. Of those, more than one-third were “income qualified” (making less than $86,900 a year) and thus eligible for a more generous subsidy. People making less than $52,140 got the most: $1,200 to $1,400. The goal is to get people out of their cars, which city planners hope will deliver a bouquet of good things: less traffic, less pollution, healthier citizens.

Research commissioned by the city in 2022 found that voucher recipients rode 26 miles a week on average, and many were using their e-bikes year-round. If even half of those miles are miles not driven, it means—conservatively, based on total e-bikes redeemed to date—the program will have eliminated more than 6.1 million automobile miles a year. That’s the equivalent of taking up to 478 gas-powered vehicles off the road, which would reduce annual CO2 emissions by nearly 190,000 metric tons.

Subsidizing electric vehicles isn’t a new concept, at least when those vehicles are cars. President Barack Obama’s 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act offered up to $7,500 to anyone who bought an electric car or light truck, capped at 200,000 per automaker. In 2022, President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act created new and similar rebates without the caps. The US government has spent more than $2 billion to date subsidizing EV purchases, with some states and cities kicking in more. Weaning transportation off fossil fuels is crucial to decarbonizing the economy, and EVs on average have much lower life-cycle CO2 emissions than comparable gas vehicles—as little as 20 percent, by some estimates. In states like California, where more than 54 percent of the electricity is generated by renewables and other non–fossil fuel sources, the benefits are even more remarkable.

Now, politicians around the country have begun to realize that e-bikes could be even more transformative than EVs. At least 30 states and dozens of cities—from Ann Arbor, Michigan, to Raleigh, North Carolina—have proposed or launched subsidy programs. It’s much cheaper than subsidizing electric cars, and though e-bikes can’t do everything cars can, they do, as Brown discovered, greatly expand the boundaries within which people work, shop, and play without driving. Emissions plummet: An analysis by the nonprofit Walk Bike Berkeley suggests that a typical commuter e-bike with pedal assist emits 21 times less CO2 per mile than a typical electric car (based on California’s power mix) and 141 times less than a gas-powered car. And e-bikes are far less resource- and energy-intensive to manufacture and distribute.

Cities also are coming to see e-bikes as a potential lifeline for their low-income communities, a healthy alternative to often unreliable public transit for families who can’t afford a car. And that electric boost gives some people who would never have considered bike commuting an incentive to try, thus helping facilitate a shift from car dependency to a more bikeable, walkable, livable culture.

In short, if policymakers truly want to disrupt transportation—and reimagine cities—e-bikes might well be their secret weapon.

I’m an avid urban cyclist who rides long distances for fun, but I don’t ride an electric. So when I landed in Denver in April, I rented a Pedego e-bike to see how battery power would affect my own experience of getting around a city.

Reader: It was delightful. Denver is flat-ish, but it’s got brisk winds and deceptively long slopes as you go crosstown. There are occasional gut-busting hills, too, including one leading up to Sunnyside, the neighborhood where I was staying. Riding a regular bike would have been doable for an experienced cyclist like me, but the battery assist made longer schleps a breeze: I rode 65 miles one day while visiting four far-flung neighborhoods. On roads without traffic, I could cruise along at a speedy 18 miles an hour. The Cherry Creek bike trail, which bisects Denver in a southeast slash, was piercingly gorgeous as I pedaled past frothing waterfalls, families of ducks, and the occasional tent pitched next to striking pop art on the creekside walls. My Apple watch clocked a decent workout, but it was never difficult. 

I did a lunch ride another day with Mike Salisbury, then the city’s transportation energy lead overseeing the voucher program. Tall and lanky, with a thick mop of straight brown hair, Salisbury wears a slim North Face fleece and sports a beige REI e-bike dusted with dried mud. He’s a lifelong cyclist, but the e-bike, which he’d purchased about two years earlier, has become his go-to ride. “I play tennis on Fridays, and it’s like 6 miles away,” he says, and he always used to drive. “It would never, ever have crossed my mind to do it on my acoustic bike.” 

E-bikes technically date back to 1895, when the US inventor Ogden Bolton Jr. slapped an electric motor on his rear wheel. But for more than a century, they were niche novelties. The batteries of yore were brutally heavy, with a range of barely 10 miles. It wasn’t until the lithium-ion battery, relatively lightweight and energy-dense, began plunging in price 30 years ago that e-bikes grew lighter and cheaper. Some models now boast a range of more than 75 miles per charge, even when using significant power assist.

All of this piqued Denver’s interest. In 2020, the city had passed a ballot measure that raised, through sales taxes, $40 million a year for environmental projects. A task force was set up to figure out how to spend it. Recreational cycling has long been a pastime in outdoorsy Colorado, and bike commuting boomed on account of the pandemic, when Covid left people skittish about ridesharing and public transit. E-bikes, the task force decided, would be a powerful way to encourage low-emissions mobility. “We were thinking, ‘What is going to reduce VMT?”—vehicle miles traveled—Salisbury recalls. His team looked at e-bike programs in British Columbia and Austin, Texas, asked dealers for advice, and eventually settled on a process: Residents would get a voucher code through a city website and bring it to a local dealer for an instant rebate. The city would repay the retailer within a few weeks.

A program was launched in April 2022 with $300,000, enough for at least 600 vouchers. They were snapped up in barely 10 minutes, “like Taylor Swift fans flooding Ticketmaster,” Salisbury wrote in a progress report. His team then secured another $4.7 million to expand the program. “It was like the scene in Jaws,” he told me: “We’re gonna need a bigger boat.” Every few months, the city would release more vouchers, and its website would get hammered. Within a year, the program had handed out more than 4,700 vouchers, two-thirds to income-qualified riders.

Denver enlisted Ride Report, an Oregon-based data firm, to assess the program’s impact: Its survey found that 65 percent of the e-bikers rode every day and 90 percent rode at least weekly. The average distance was 3.3 miles. Salisbury was thrilled.

The state followed suit later that year, issuing e-bike rebates to 5,000 low-income workers (people making up to 80 percent of their county’s median income). This past April, state legislators approved a $450 tax credit for residents who buy an e-bike. Will Toor, executive director of the Colorado Energy Office, told me he found it very pleasant, and highly unusual, to oversee a program that literally leaves people grinning: “People love it. There’s nothing we’ve done that has gotten as much positive feedback.” 

I witnessed the good cheer firsthand talking to Denverites who’d taken advantage of the programs. They ranged from newbies to dedicated cyclists. Most said it was the subsidy that convinced them to pull the trigger. All seemed fairly besotted with their e-bikes and said they’d replaced lots of car trips. Software engineer Tom Carden chose a cargo model for heavy-duty hauling—he’d recently lugged 10 gallons of paint (about 110 pounds) in one go, he told me—and shuttling his two kids to and from elementary school.

Child-hauling is sort of the ideal application for cargo bikes. I arrange a ride one afternoon with Ted Rosenbaum, whose sturdy gray cargo e-bike has a toddler seat in back and a huge square basket in front. I wait outside a local day care as Rosenbaum, a tall fellow clad in T-shirt and khakis, emerges with his pigtailed 18-month-old daughter. He straps her in and secures her helmet for their 2.5-mile trek home. “It’s right in that sweet spot where driving is 10 to 15 minutes, but riding my bike is always 14,” Rosenbaum says as we glide away. “I think she likes this more than the car, too—better views.”

The toddler grips her seatposts gently, head swiveling as she takes in the sights. Rosenbaum rides slowly but confidently; I’d wondered how drivers would behave around a child on a cargo bike, and today, at least, they’re pretty solicitous. A white SUV trails us for two long blocks, almost comically hesitant to pass, until I give it a wave and the driver creeps by cautiously. At the next stoplight, Rosenbaum’s daughter breaks her silence with a loud, excited yelp: There’s a huge, fluffy dog walking by.

E-bikes stir up heated opposition, too. Sure, riders love them. But some pedestrians, drivers, dog walkers, and “acoustic” bikers are affronted, even enraged, by the new kid on the block.

This is particularly so in dense cities, like my own, where e-bikes have proliferated. By one estimate, New York City has up to 65,000 food delivery workers on e-bikes. Citi Bike operates another 20,000 pay-as-you-go e-bikes, and thousands of residents own one. When I told my NYC friends about this story, probably half, including regular cyclists, blurted out something along the lines of, “I hate those things.” They hate when e-bikers zoom past them on bike paths at 20 mph, dangerously close, or ride the wrong direction down bike lanes on one-way streets. And they hate sharing crowded bikeways with tourists and inexperienced riders.

In September 2023 near Chinatown, a Citi Bike customer ran into 69-year-old Priscilla Loke, who died two days later. After another Citi Biker rammed a Harlem pedestrian, Sarah Pratt, from behind, Pratt said company officials insisted they weren’t responsible. Incensed, a local woman named Janet Schroeder co-founded the NYC E-Vehicle Safety Alliance, which lobbies the city for stricter regulations. E-bikes should be registered, she told me, and she supports legislation that requires riders to display a visible license plate and buy insurance, as drivers do. This, Schroeder says, would at least make them more accountable. “We are in an e-bike crisis,” she says. “We have older people, blind people, people with disabilities who tell me they’re scared to go out because of the way e-bikes behave.”

Dedicated e-bikers acknowledge the problem, but the ones I spoke with also felt that e-bikes are taking excessive flak due to their novelty. Cars, they point out, remain a far graver threat to health and safety. In 2023, automobiles killed an estimated 244 pedestrians and injured 8,620 in New York City, while cyclists (of all types) killed eight pedestrians and injured 340. Schroeder concedes the point, but notes that drivers at least are licensed and insured—and are thus on the hook for casualties they cause.

Underlying the urban-transportation culture wars is the wretched state of bike infrastructure. American cities were famously built for cars; planners typically left precious little room for bikes and pedestrians, to say nothing of e-bikes, hoverboards, scooters, skaters, and parents with jogging strollers. Cars hog the roadways while everyone else fights for the scraps. Most bike lanes in the United States are uncomfortably narrow, don’t allow for safe passing, and are rarely physically separated from cars­—some cyclists call them “car door lanes.” The paths winding through Denver’s parks are multimodal, meaning pedestrians and riders of all stripes share the same strip, despite their very different speeds. 

Even in this relatively bike-friendly city, which has 196 miles of dedicated on-road bike lanes, riding sometimes requires the nerves of a daredevil. I set out one afternoon with 34-year-old Ana Ilic, who obtained her bright blue e-bike through the city’s voucher program. She used to drive the 10 miles to her job in a Denver suburb, but now she mostly cycles. She figures she clocks 70 miles a week by e-bike, driving only 10.

Her evening commute demonstrates the patchiness of Denver’s cycling network. Much of our journey is pleasant, on quieter roads, some with painted bike lanes. But toward the end, the only choice is a four-lane route with no bike lanes. Cars whip past us, just inches away. It’s as if we’d stumbled into a suburban NASCAR event. “This is the worst part,” she says apologetically.

The fear of getting hit stops lots of people from jumping into the saddle. But officials in many cities still look at local roadways and conclude there aren’t enough cyclists to justify the cost of more bike lanes. It’s the chicken-egg paradox. “You have to build it,” insists Peter Piccolo, executive director of the lobby Bicycle Colorado. “If we’re going to wait for the majority of the population to let go of car dependency, we’re never going to get here.” 

Advocates say the true solution is to embrace the “new urbanist” movement, which seeks to make cities around the world more human-scaled and less car-dependent. The movement contends that planners need to take space back from cars—particularly curbside parking, where vehicles sit unused 95 percent of the time, as scholar Donald Shoup has documented. That frees up room, potentially, for wider bike lanes that allow for safe passing. (New York and Paris are among the cities now embracing this approach.) You can also throw in “traffic calming” measures such as speed bumps and roads that narrow at intersections. One by-product of discouraging driving is that buses move faster, making them a more attractive commute option, too. 

Cities worldwide are proving that this vision is achievable: In 2020, the mayor of Bogota added 17 permanent miles of bike lanes to the existing 342 and has plans for another 157. (Bogota and several other Colombian cities also close entire highways and streets on Sundays and holidays to encourage cycling.) Paris, which has rolled out more than 500 miles of bike lanes since 2001, saw a remarkable doubling in the number of city cyclists from 2022 to 2023—a recent GPS survey found that more people now commute to downtown from the inner suburbs by bicycle than by car. In New York City, where bike lane miles have quintupled over the past decade, the number of cyclists—electric and otherwise—has also nearly doubled.

Colorado has made some progress, too, says Toor, the Energy Office director. For decades, state road funds could only be used to accommodate cars, but in 2021, legislators passed a bill to spend $5.4 billion over 10 years on walking, biking, and transit infrastructure—“because it’s reducing demand” on roadways, he explains. The transportation department also requires cities to meet greenhouse gas reduction targets, which is why Denver ditched a long-planned $900 million highway expansion in favor of bus rapid transit and safer streets.

One critique of e-bike programs, ironically, involves the climate return on investment. Research on Swedish voucher programs found that an e-bike typically reduces its owner’s CO2 emissions by about 1.3 metric tons per year—the equivalent of driving a gas-­powered vehicle about 3,250 miles. Not bad, but some researchers say a government can get more climate bang for the subsidy buck by, for example, helping people swap fossil fuel furnaces for heat pumps, or gas stoves for electric. E-bike subsidies are “a pretty expensive way” to decarbonize, says economist Luke Jones, who co-authored a recent paper on the topic. That’s because e-bikes, in most cases, only replace relatively short car trips. To really slash vehicular CO2, you’d need to supplant longer commutes. Which is clearly possible—behold all those Parisians commuting from the inner suburbs, distances of up to 12 miles. It’s been a tougher sell in Denver, where, as that 2022 survey found, only 5 percent of trips taken by voucher recipients exceeded 9 miles. 

But the value of e-bikes lies not only, and perhaps not even principally, in cutting emissions. Cycling also eases traffic congestion and improves health by keeping people active. It reduces the need for parking, which dovetails neatly with another new urbanist policy: reducing or eliminating mandatory parking requirements for new homes and businesses, which saves space and makes housing cheaper and easier to build. And biking has other civic benefits that are hard to quantify, but quite real, Salisbury insists. “It has this really nice community aspect,” he says. “When you’re out riding, you see people, you wave, you stop to chat—you notice what’s going on in the neighborhoods around you. You don’t do that so much in a car. It kind of improves your mood.”

That sounds gauzy, but studies have found that people who ride to work do, in fact, arrive in markedly better spirits than those who drive or take transit. Their wellbeing is fueled by fresh air and a feeling of control over the commute—no traffic jams, transit delays, or hunting for parking. “It’s basically flow state,” says Kirsty Wild, a senior research fellow of population health at the University of Auckland. Nobody has ascribed a dollar value to these benefits, but it’s got to be worth something for a city to have residents who are less pissed off.

What would really make e-bikes take off, though, is a federal subsidy. The Inflation Reduction Act initially included a $4.1 billion program that could have put nearly 4.5 million e-bikes on the road for $900 a pop, but Democratic policymakers yanked it. Subsequent bills to roll out an e-bike tax credit have not made it out of committee.

E-bike sharing companies are sometimes seen as gentrifiers, but Denver’s experience shows that e-bikes can be more than just toys for the affluent. Take June Churchill. She was feeling pretty stressed before she got her e-bike. She’d come to Denver for college, but after graduating had found herself unemployed, couchsurfing, and strapped for cash. Having gender-­transitioned, she was estranged from her conservative parents. “I was poor as shit,” she told me. But then she heard about the voucher program and discovered that she qualified for the generous low-income discount. Her new e-bike allowed her to expand her job search to a wider area—she landed a position managing mass mailings for Democratic campaigns—and made it way easier to look around for an affordable place to live. “That bike was totally crucial to getting and keeping my job,” she says.

It’s true that e-bikes and bikeshare systems were initially tilted toward the well-off; the bikes can be expensive, and bikeshares have typically rolled out first in gentrified areas. Denver’s answer was to set aside fully half of its subsidies for low-­income residents.

Churchill’s experience suggests that an e-bike can bolster not only physical mobility, but economic mobility, too. Denver’s low-­income neighborhoods have notoriously spotty public transit and community services, and, as the program’s leaders maintain, helping people get around improves access to education, employment, and health care. To that point, Denver’s income-qualified riders cover an average of 10 miles more per week than other voucher recipients—a spot of evidence Congress might contemplate.

But there are still some people whom cities will have to try harder to reach. I ride one morning to Denver’s far east side, where staffers from Hope Communities, a nonprofit that runs several large affordable-­housing units, are hosting a biweekly food distribution event. Most Hope residents are immigrants and refugees from ­Afghanistan, Myanmar, and other Asian and African nations. I watch as a procession of smiling women in colorful wraps and sandals collect oranges, eggs, potatoes, and broccoli, and health workers offer blood-pressure readings. There’s chatter in a variety of languages.

Jessica McFadden, a cheery program administrator in brown aviators, tells me that as far as her staff can tell, only one Hope resident, a retiree in his 70s named Tom, has snagged an e-bike voucher. The problem is digital literacy, she says. Not only do these people need to know the program exists, but they also have to know when the next batch of vouchers will drop—and pounce. But Hope residents can’t normally afford laptops or home wifi—most rely on low-end smartphones with strict data caps. Add in language barriers, and they’re generally flummoxed by online-first government programs.

Tom was able to get his e-bike, McFadden figures, because he’s American, is fluent in English, and has family locally. He’s more plugged in than most. She loves the idea of the voucher program. She just thinks the city needs to do better on outreach. Scholars who’ve studied e-bike programs, like John MacArthur at Portland State University, recommend that cities set up lending libraries in low-income areas so people can try an e-bike, and put more bike lanes in those neighborhoods, which are often last in line for such improvements.

In Massachusetts, the nonprofit organizers of a state-funded e-bike program operating in places like Worcester, whose median income falls well below the national average, found that it’s crucial to also offer people racks, pannier bags, and maintenance vouchers.

As I chat with McFadden, Tom himself suddenly appears, pushing a stroller full of oranges from the food distro. I ask him about his e-bike. He uses it pretty frequently, he says. “Mostly to shop and visit my sister; she’s over in Sloan Lake”—a hefty 15 miles away. Then he ambles off.

McFadden recalls how, just a few weeks earlier, she’d seen him cruising past on his e-bike with his oxygen tank strapped to the back, the little plastic air tubes in his nose. “Tom, are you sure you should be doing that?” she’d called out.

Tom just waved and peeled away. He had places to be.

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Green MLA Valeriote says oil and gas shares an 'oversight' - Coast Reporter

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“I appreciate The Tyee for bringing this to my attention. This was an oversight which I am taking action to resolve,” Valeriote said in a statement to Pique. “The $172.08 I have in PrairieSky shares is a leftover dividend from past retirement investments in fossil fuels, which I have been actively divesting from over the years. While this highlights the systemic challenges of transitioning pensions away from oil and gas investments, I am committed to leading by example as the representative for West Vancouver-Sea to Sky and will be removing this investment immediately.”

Valeriote’s historic campaign centred around his fierce opposition to the Woodfibre LNG facility being construction on Howe Sound, which helped make him the Greens’ first-ever candidate elected on the B.C. mainland. Last month, he told The Squamish Chief it was “tremendously disappointing” the NDP wouldn’t agree to cancel the controversial project as part of its power-sharing agreement with the Greens.

The Greens’ 2024 election platform promised no new LNG projects, no permits for new fracking wells or pipelines, and vowed to set a date to begin phasing out gas production in the province.

Valeriote’s disclosure lists other investments, including shares in companies dedicated to sustainability and reducing carbon emissions. They include wind power company Innergex, electric and hybrid vehicle producer Azure Dynamics, and Foremost Lithium Resource and Technology.

The MLA also invests in the telecommunications giant, Telus Corp.; plane and snowmobile manufacturer, Bombardier; cybersecurity and software provider, BlackBerry; Toronto-Dominion Bank; water management consultants Paradigm Environmental Technologies; drug developer Arbutus Biopharma; and IM Cannabis Corp., among others.

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It kills me that this $127 made more news than the $50 million of real estate investments the conservative who ran on fixing housing prices has
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How to spur the invention of more cancer screening tests | STAT

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Toni Roberts was 58 when she began to experience gastrointestinal issues. She modified her diet and tried over-the-counter remedies, but her symptoms did not improve. She finally got a CT scan, which led to an urgent visit with her doctor. When he told her that she had ovarian cancer, she thought he had confused her with someone else.

Surgery and chemotherapy followed. Toni died four years after her diagnosis, leaving behind two heartbroken sons.

Every year, nearly 20,000 American women like Toni Roberts are diagnosed with ovarian cancer and about 13,000 die from the disease. Symptoms like bloating often go unaddressed for months. Most women are diagnosed with advanced disease, and 70% of these women will die within five years. Survival rates for Black and Hispanic women are even worse.

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The laws turning Arab-Israelis into ‘second-class citizens’

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Where Wars Might Erupt in 2025

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Earlier this week, Foreign Policy featured 10 conflicts to watch in 2025. Here, we are focusing on those international disputes that have been flying under the radar but could emerge as full-blown conflicts in the coming year.

This list is not intended to be predictive; rather, it is a warning from FP’s columnists and contributors that there are a number of flash points—from Manipur to Mindanao—that deserve more attention than they have received from experts on geopolitical risk.—Sasha Polakow-Suransky, deputy editor

By Emma Ashford

A man holds two small children as others look into the burned-out shell of a car.

Members of a family look at one of the burned-out cars where nine people were killed during an ambush in Bavispe, Sonora mountains, Mexico, on Nov. 5, 2019. U.S. President Donald Trump offered to help Mexico “wage war” on its drug cartels after three women and six children from an American Mormon community were killed in an area notorious for drug traffickers. HERIKA MARTINEZ/AFP/Getty Images

During U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term, one often heard that his statements should be taken “seriously, but not literally.” Therefore, it’s surprising that so many people ignore the risk of conflict in one area where Trump has threatened the use of military force both literally and seriously: his threat to invade Mexico.

More precisely, during the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump repeatedly proposed the use of special forces, drones, and other tactics commonly used against terrorist groups for Mexican cartels to inhibit the smuggling of drugs and humans across the U.S. border. This is not a new idea: former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper wrote in his 2022 book that Trump once asked whether he could launch missiles into Mexico to destroy drug labs—and whether such strikes could be kept secret.

The idea has only grown more popular in conservative media and foreign-policy circles. Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, for example, has argued that the U.S. government should have the power to deploy troops to Mexico to restrain the flow of fentanyl. Trump’s incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz introduced a bill in 2023 that would have authorized the use of military force against the cartels, and an anonymous source recently told reporters that plans to send U.S. special forces to assassinate cartel leaders were being widely discussed within Trump’s transition team.

It might sound patently illegal—or even ridiculous—to suggest that the United States wage war on its neighbor, but the truth is that during the global war on terror, drone strikes and targeted assassinations of the kind that killed Osama bin Laden and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi have occurred in a legal gray zone. Presidents from both political parties have authorized missions that clearly violate the sovereignty of other states in the name of counterterrorism.

If the U.S. military can conduct drone strikes inside Pakistan, Yemen, or Somalia without permission from their governments—so the logic goes—then why not Mexico? Many of the justifications already emerging from Trump’s circle sound like those advanced during the war on terror: The cartels do pose some direct threats to U.S. national security—whether from drugs, migrant flows, or other concerns—and Mexico has been unable to entirely control actors within its own territory.

Washington probably wouldn’t succeed either. Research suggests that targeted so-called decapitation strikes tend not to degrade terrorist groups, and the cartels have grown stronger in recent years even as several key leaders have been captured or killed. The United States struggled for years to contain the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) using similar methods. More worrisome is the risk that as further targeted or hands-off attacks fail, the more pressure the Trump administration might feel to move toward a larger-scale U.S. military role in Mexico.

If the incoming president’s statements and inclinations mean anything, the possibility that the Trump administration will engage in military action in Mexico in 2025 is a threat to be taken both seriously and literally.

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The Moro Islamic Liberation Front Destabilizes the Philippines—Again

By Nic Aspinwall

A man in uniform holds on to a gate behind yellow police tape.

A member of the military stands guard at the entrance to a gymnasium while police investigators look for evidence after a bomb attack at Mindanao State University in Marawi, Philippines, on Dec. 3, 2023. MERLYN MANOS/AFP/Getty Images

Geopolitical analysts who worry about the Philippines tend to focus on the contested South China Sea, where the Chinese coast guard and navy have attacked Philippine vessels in numerous clashes that the United States has called “unlawful” and “dangerous.” Manila, backed by Washington, has emphasized a shift to external defense and away from the internal conflicts with communist and Islamist insurgents that have preoccupied its military for decades.

But in the southern island of Mindanao’s Bangsamoro region, a historic election scheduled for May 2025 threatens to reignite a deadly conflict the country hoped it had left behind.

In 2014, the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) signed a peace agreement that ended a 50-year insurgency and eventually led to the creation of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. The region was legally established in 2019, but its inaugural elections were delayed when the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the process of decommissioning rebels, raising concerns of election violence.

But the Bangsamoro region’s deep regional, ethnic, and ideological fissures have yet to heal, and violent incidents are rising ahead of the 2025 elections, according to a report from crisis group Conflict Alert. Violence in the Philippines spiked during the 2022 national and 2023 regional elections, and the report warned that political feuds between families and clans will “contribute to the anticipated deadly nature” of the 2025 elections. Several local politicians have been killed or targeted in ambushes in recent months.

Plans for a peaceful vote took another hit in September when the Supreme Court ruled to exclude the region of Sulu from the Bangsamoro, rendering Sulu Gov. Abdusakur Tan—a leading candidate for Bangsamoro’s chief minister—ineligible to run for the post. Allies of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. recently introduced legislation to postpone elections yet again to 2026, citing Sulu’s exclusion. But further postponement could produce even more violence, as the path to a functioning autonomous region becomes hazier.

“Time is running out for completion of the roadmap set out by the 2014 [peace] agreement,” the International Crisis Group warned in January, citing feuds between former rebels and local politicians, along with the presence of jihadist groups that oppose the peace agreement. In December 2023, Islamic State-inspired militants killed four people in Marawi, a city that was all but destroyed during a siege in 2017.

At a time when Manila and Washington are desperate to leave internal conflicts behind and focus on countering China, a resurgence of violence throughout the Bangsamoro region would be a stark reminder of the fragility of peace in the Philippines.

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Norwegian Fishermen Take on the Kremlin

By Elisabeth Braw

A port hole looks out onto a Russian flag amid the seascape.

A Russian flag hangs from outside a fishing trawler docked in Kirkenes, Norway, on Oct. 22, 2019. Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

During the Cold War, the friendly Norwegians even managed to maintain workable relations with the Soviet Union (granted, from a safe position underneath NATO’s protective umbrella). But these days, things are more tense. Russia is very interested—for not so friendly reasons—in the pipelines and undersea cables that dot the seabed off the Norwegian coast, and it’s equally interested in Norway’s military installations on the coast.

That means more Russian activity in the waters that Norwegian fishermen depend on for their livelihood, and they’ve already demonstrated that they won’t ignore threats to their bottom line.

The fishermen may decide that they need to stand up for themselves, because naval exercises with live fire mean people have to vacate the waters for safety—and such exercises scare fish away.

In recent months, astute journalists at NRK have been documenting all manner of mysterious maritime Russian visits to Norwegian waters. There have been fishing vessels with communications equipment going far beyond what a fishing boat needs. There have been ships loitering near Norwegian military installations and others hanging around Norwegian pipelines and communications cables.

In August 2023, Russia launched a naval exercise in the Barents Sea. The body of water, part of the Artic Ocean, is divided into a Russian side and a Norwegian side. The exercise was going to cover the Norwegian side, and it was going to be a major undertaking that involved 20 warships, support vessels, submarines, and some 8,000 military personnel. Because the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) doesn’t ban countries from conducting naval exercises in other nations’ exclusive economic zones (EEZs), there wasn’t much Oslo could do.

Norwegian fishermen, who fish in the Barents Sea, were aghast. Even though they were aware that foreign countries were allowed to conduct these exercises,  they knew they would lose income as a result. Taking a page from their Irish brethren, who managed to get Russia to move a planned exercise in Ireland’s EEZ back in January 2022, they stayed put.

Things ended peacefully, but they may not go so well next time. Norway’s fishermen are understandably determined to continue plying their trade along their country’s coast, while Russia is likely to keep sending military vessels and civilian ones with mysterious capabilities to the very same waters.

If Russia launches another exercise and some fishermen decide to stay put, the Kremlin may conclude that withdrawing, as it did in Irish waters, would send a message of weakness. Then Norway would face the prospect of its citizens harmed by Russian ammunition in Norwegian waters. Countries have far fewer rights in an EEZ than in territorial waters, so Norway and its NATO allies would face a difficult choice: how to respond.

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A Plausibly Deniable Russian War Against Europe

By John R. Deni

A destroyed and burned-out building lies in run behind a yellow excavator.

An excavator stands at the Diehl Metal Applications facility following a fire that gutted the building in Berlin on June 24. Though investigators categorized the May 3 fire as an accident, media reports cited intelligence sources as being convinced that Russia was behind the fire. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

The sabotage of undersea communications cables in the Baltic Sea by the cargo ship Yi Peng 3 is only the latest in a series of asymmetric attacks against Western interests and infrastructure that appear to be connected in one way or another to Moscow. The Kremlin has clearly ratcheted up efforts to intimidate and coerce Europe, hoping to frustrate—and ultimately force an end to—Western support for Ukraine. But what if Putin orders his minions to turn the temperature up even more?

It could all start if Putin senses the right opportunity, such as an increasing American indifference toward Europe. Putin may seize the moment and seek to clear the Europeans from the field as well, before any new aid package materializes on the battlefields of Ukraine. Ironically, a major effort by Europeans to fill the Ukraine assistance gap created by the Americans might function as a red cape does in the bullring—goading the aggressor to charge.

To date, Russian hybrid operations against European targets have generally focused on the infrastructure, entities, and countries most closely tied to Ukraine’s war effort—an assassination plot against the CEO of Germany’s leading defense contractor sending arms to Ukraine, an explosion at a Bulgarian ammo depot owned by a company that supplies Ukraine, and attempts to sabotage Polish rail lines used to send military equipment to Ukraine.

A dramatically ramped-up Russian-organized hybrid campaign designed to convince Europeans to pull the plug on Ukraine assistance would likely consist of a far broader array of targets.

For example, an unattributable kamikaze drone or a debilitating cyber-attack against a major power plant or a critical electrical substation; the introduction of disease-spreading pathogens into a water treatment plant; or deep-fake videos depicting a centrist political candidate engaged in corrupt activities at the height of an election campaign could all cause substantial damage and disruption.

Just as wolves hunt the weakest of the herd, it’s reasonable to assume that Russia would aim an expanded hybrid campaign against the more vulnerable countries in Europe, politically or otherwise, in hopes that they would eliminate bilateral support or break consensus in NATO or the EU.

The target list might include France, where political instability is particularly acute these days; Belgium, which has a notoriously decentralized governance structure and deep linguistic fault lines; or Romania, where an annulled election—due to alleged Russian interference—has placed the country in uncharted waters and threatens political stability.

To achieve its goals, Moscow would likely need to reach beyond its own network of spies and operatives. Russia might leverage its relationship with Libya’s warlord, Gen. Khalifa Haftar, to enlist Libyan operatives to conduct a sabotage operation against a Greek port, or the Kremlin could tap into organized crime networks to assassinate media, business, or political elites on the streets of Brussels or Madrid.

Europeans need to prepare for a desperate Kremlin doubling down on hybrid warfare.

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A North Korean Strike on a Divided and Distracted South

By Markus Garlauskas

A man stands in front of a large television set airing video of a missile launch.

A TV at Yongsan Railway Station in Seoul airs footage of a test launch of the new intercontinental ballistic missile Hwasong-19 at an undisclosed place in North Korea on Nov. 1.Kim Jae-Hwan/SOPA Images/Reuters Connect

The ever-present potential for renewed warfare on the Korean Peninsula has been overshadowed by South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed attempt to declare martial law in order to crush the opposition. Though the headlines are likely to remain dominated by political crisis, this would conceal the rising risk of North Korean aggression—particularly in the disputed Yellow Sea waters off South Korea’s west coast.

A prolonged period of division and uncertainty is likely in South Korea. This will make it difficult for Seoul to deter Pyongyang’s aggression and coordinate with the incoming U.S. administration

Though North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been largely silent on the events in South Korea, probably to avoid bolstering hawkish conservatives backing Yoon, he is likely looking for an opportunity to exploit. Once Yoon has been replaced—or appears set to hang on—the moment will be ripe for Kim to force a confrontation.

The disputed waters of the Yellow Sea, a longtime flashpoint for limited military clashes between North and South, seem tailor-made for North Korea to initiate such a military confrontation on favorable terms, politically and militarily.

The most intense North Korean aggression there to date—Pyongyang’s submarine sinking Seoul’s warship, followed by rocket and artillery attacks on a South Korean island—killed dozens but ultimately did not escalate further. However, much has changed since 2010 to increase North Korea’s incentive and ability to strike.

North Korea’s capability to launch surprise military strikes has advanced dramatically in the last decade and a half, with new rockets, short-range missiles, and drones. These are backed by an increasingly credible nuclear threat—underscored by multiple nuclear tests, repeated intercontinental ballistic missile launches, and displays of tactical nuclear weapons—which could give Seoul and Washington pause about responding. Geography also stacks the deck here in North Korea’s favor, with the North’s mountainous Hwanghae Peninsula providing numerous launching points for attacks onto and around South Korea’s tiny and isolated northwest Islands.

Politically, Kim’s international backing has also never been stronger. His new alliance with Moscow has given him access to resources and technology in exchange for munitions, equipment, and troops. A Beijing-Washington confrontation that Kim could exploit also appears to be brewing once the new U.S. administration takes office—if Kim sees the opportunity to drive a wedge between the U.S. and South Korea.

If Kim strikes, the risk is high that Seoul would feel forced to either accede to Kim or respond disproportionately and unilaterally show strength and force Kim to back down. Either outcome could destabilize the entire region.

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The Houthis Conquer All of Yemen

By Mina Al-Oraibi

An elderly man with a gray beard holds a giant missile.

An elderly Houthi fighter mans a cannon mounted on a vehicle at a rally on the outskirts of Sanaa, Yemen, on Feb. 4. The rally was in support of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the recent Houthi strikes on shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images

Yemen’s Houthi militants targeting ships in the Red Sea made global headlines, yet too little attention has been paid to the precarious situation inside the country.

After years of criticizing the Saudi Arabia-led coalition—and refusing to get directly involved in the war to restore the internationally-recognized Yemeni government in the capital of Sana’a—the United States, United Kingdom, and several of their allies launched a military operation to stop Houthi attacks in the Red Sea in December 2023. Even so, the Iranian-backed group has managed to launch dozens of attacks this year on ships it accused of being Israeli or in aid of Israel.

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis held a number of talks last year aimed at ending the war that started after the militant group conquered Sana’a in 2014 and forced then-President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi to step down in 2015. Those talks stalled in the aftermath of Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel.

Developments within Yemen are largely forgotten or ignored—at the world’s peril. The Houthis feel emboldened despite Israeli and U.S. strikes. And while the Yemeni people suffer from disease, poverty, and malnutrition—the United Nations World Food Program estimates that 17.1 million Yemenis will be food insecure in 2025Houthi local weapons production and smuggling continues unabated.

With less and less external support for the internationally-recognized authorities in Aden, the government of Prime Minister Ahmed bin Mubarak is under increased pressure from the Houthis. The group has also been able to claim propaganda wins by standing up to Israel, whose wars in Gaza and Lebanon are deeply resented in Yemen, and surviving in the face of major military operations by Western powers.

Without serious efforts to support the prime minister’s government, the Houthis could decide to push further south into the country with the help of other militants. Arms proliferation and broken state institutions mean these threats are very real. If the Houthis were to secure power over all of Yemen, a militant and Iranian-aligned Arab state would emerge.

Such a scenario would not only mean greater suffering for the Yemeni people but also a greater strategic threat to the Gulf, the Horn of Africa, and global shipping. While the Houthis and its allies could sweep through Yemen, they would struggle to hold it, leading to greater bloodshed and internal fighting. If sectarian tension mounts, groups like al Qaeda will seek to take advantage and ignite new battles—and reignite old ones—while continued war in nearby Sudan could spill over into the country.

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Russian Destabilization of Moldova

By Natia Seskuria

The shadow of a man holding a microphone appears before a campaign poster.

Alexandr Stoianoglo, a Moldovan presidential candidate representing the pro-Russian and anti-European Union party, delivers a speech in Comrat, Moldova, on Oct. 18.Pierre Crom/Getty Images

Moldova’s pro-Western incumbent president, Maia Sandu, recently won a closely watched runoff in the country’s presidential elections, gaining 55 percent of votes against pro-Russian candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo.

In a recent referendum, Sandu also secured a constitutional change that would enshrine Moldova’s commitment to join the European Union. Despite a large-scale Russian campaign that included election interference, vote buying, and disinformation, Moldova’s EU aspirations have prevailed for now. However, it is highly likely that the country, which is sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania and has a presence of around 1,500 Russian troops in the breakaway region of Transnistria, will remain at the forefront of Russian influence and sabotage operations.

Moscow has traditionally seen Moldova as falling within its sphere of influence, yet the country has made significant progress on its path to European integration by opening accession talks with the EU through the efforts of its pro-Western government.

Since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin’s hybrid attacks have significantly increased . According to Moldova’s Security and Intelligence Service, Moscow spent around $55 million to destabilize the country—seeking to spread disinformation and manipulate election outcomes in favor of pro-Kremlin candidates. In April, Moldovan authorities seized around $1 million in cash from more than 100 passengers at Chisinau airport; the money was believed to be for vote-buying and sabotage operations through Russian proxies.

Moscow will keep investing significant resources to undermine growing pro-EU sentiment among Moldova’s population by spreading disinformation, including the idea that pursuing pro-Western foreign policy will risk a war in Transnistria. Even though Moldova is militarily neutral, Russia wants to deter the country from pursuing NATO membership by creating fear of a potential spillover from its war with Ukraine. Meanwhile, any success on Moldova’s EU integration path would be seen as a major defeat for Russia, which means the country will remain a high-priority target for Moscow.

A Russian invasion of Moldova through Ukraine remains highly unlikely. But the Kremlin will try to take advantage of weak institutions by attempting to capture them through its proxies, weaponizing its leverage in Transnistria and the predominantly Russian-speaking autonomous region of Gagauzia, and by using economic pressure, cyberattacks, and sophisticated information operations.

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Manipur Violence Undermines Modi’s Regional Ambitions

By Sushant Singh

Two women sit on the ground next to razor wire as members of the military surround them.

Family members sit in protest as army personnel stand guard at a checkpoint in Manipur, India, on Nov. 30. The people were demonstrating after a man from the Meitei community went missing. AFP/Getty Images

The conflict in Manipur, a northeastern state in India bordering Myanmar, is complex and multifaceted. While the crisis there—primarily involving the Meitei, Naga, and Kuki communities—may seem like a localized ethnic rivalry, the implications of this conflict could have significant geopolitical ramifications in 2025.

Manipur has been a hotspot of ethnic conflict for decades. The roots of the violence can be traced back to the controversial merger of the princely state of Manipur with post-colonial India in 1949. The recent violence, which started in May 2023 between the Meitei and Kuki communities, has resulted in at least 250 deaths, the displacement of 60,000 people from their homes, the loss of over 6,500 weapons from state police armories, social tensions, and a geographical split of the state between the two warring groups. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has appeared largely apathetic toward the crisis, which saw further death and destruction in November.

The conflict in Manipur is part of a broader pattern of unrest in northeast India, a region characterized by ethnic diversity and historical insurgencies. The political instability in Manipur has already spilled over into neighboring states such as Nagaland, Assam, and Mizoram, creating a broader security crisis that can reignite dormant local conflicts. That could serve as a major drain on New Delhi’s energies and resources, diverting its attention from other security challenges like the border with China or Kashmir, which has been the cause of long-standing enmity with nuclear-armed Pakistan.

The ethnic groups involved in the conflict, such as the Nagas and Kukis, have ethnic brethren across international borders in Myanmar and Bangladesh. The conflict could therefore exacerbate tensions in these countries, complicating bilateral relations and worsening an unstable regional situation. The ongoing civil war in Myanmar, which began after a military coup in 2021, has already created a volatile situation and provides a breeding ground for insurgent groups that can operate across borders.

The recent political upheaval in Bangladesh, which brought in a new government less friendly to India, complicates the picture. Anti-India sentiment and potential support for insurgent groups in the area could increase, further destabilizing the region.

The conflict in Manipur and broader instability in northeast India will hinder major infrastructure projects and trade routes that are key to unlocking the region’s economic potential and integrating it with the rest of India.

The success of initiatives like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway—which will provide India with direct land access to the ASEAN region that bypasses China-dominated maritime channels—and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project—which connects India and Myanmar with a network of roads and waterways to facilitate the movement of people and goods—depends on regional stability that is unlikely in the new year unless New Delhi demonstrates political will, administrative competence, and a rubric for regional diplomacy.

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sarcozona
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Why Are Publications Sugar-Coating Livilsberger’s Political Minifestos? - TPM – Talking Points Memo

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Over the last four days, the bizarre Cybertruck fire outside a Trump hotel in Las Vegas has run from comical interlude to possible terrorist incident to tragic suicide of another veteran of America’s forever wars. Each of these descriptions still captures an important part of the story. As I noted yesterday, while Matthew Livelsberger appears to have had a series of combustible and likely abusive relationships going back many years he also appears to have suffered from PTSD and possibly a traumatic brain injury since returning from a tour of duty in 2019. (I’m tentative on the spousal abuse front only because for now the direct evidence for that that I’m aware of comes only from the friend of his ex-wife.) But at least for the moment there is a pretty striking lack of attention to the political motives he expressed in at least two documents or what I guess we might call minifestos that investigators found on his iPhone.

Those documents denounce Democrats and demand they be “culled” from Washington, by violence if necessary, and express the hope that his own death will serve as a kind of bell clap for a national rebirth of masculinity under the leadership of Donald Trump, Elon Musk and Bobby Kennedy Jr.

Did you miss that stuff?

Yeah, me too!

Most headlines I’d seen in the news report only that he warned of national decline and bore “no ill will toward Mr. Trump,” in the words of one of the investigators. That gloss on Donald Trump is, shall we say, a bit of an understatement, as you can see in these excerpts.

Military and vets move on DC starting now. Militias facilitate and augment this activity.Occupy every major road along fed buildings and the campus of fed buildings by the hundreds of thousands.Lock the highways around down with semis right after everybody gets in. Hold until the purge is complete.

Try peaceful means first, but be prepared to fight to get the Dems out of the fed government and military by any means necessary. They all must go and a hard reset must occur for our country to avoid collapse.

We must end the war in Ukraine with negotiated settlement. It is the only way.
Focus on strength and winning. Masculinity is good and men must be leaders. Strength is a deterrent and fear is the product.

Stop obsessing over diversity. We are all diverse and DEI is a cancer.
Thankfully we rejected the DEI candidate and will have a real President instead of Weekend at Bernie’s.

Consider this last sunset of ‘24 and my actions the end of our sickness and a new chapter of health for our people. Rally around the Trump, Musk, Kennedy, and ride this wave to the highest hegemony for all Americans! We are second to no one.

I encourage you to read the two minifestos all the way through. They’re not long. I excerpted at least half above. You can find them here.

I should note they capture what we might call the ideologically polyglot — or what appears to many of us as ideologically polyglot — thinking of many of these people. He also rails against the 1%, excessive screen time for kids, wars with no clear strategic purpose, obesity. We should also note explicitly that Livelsberger can both be a violent extremist and a victim of PTSD, and in a broader sense part of the human collateral damage of the wars that occupied the U.S. military through the first two decades of the 21st century. Our minds should be big enough for both those realities. But the through-line is pretty clear: If you’re a Democrat or someone who is Democrat-coded, Livilsberger’s version of national rebirth probably isn’t a fun one for you.

At least when I looked last night the only places I saw these parts of Livelsberger’s writings in any detail were relatively obscure publications. I was worried that maybe they were hoax documents that had somehow found their way into a few publications. So I traced them back to yesterday’s police press conference. They are indeed real.

As a final point, let me return to the question we’ve discussed over the last few days: what was the political message of torching a Cybertruck in front of a Trump hotel? He actually answers that more or less clearly in the second minifesto: “This was not a terrorist attack, it was a wake up call. Americans only pay attention to spectacles and violence. What better way to get my point across than a stunt with fireworks and explosives?”

One might quibble over whether it was a terrorist attack. But I will give Livelsberger his due inasmuch as he does not appear to have intended to injure others, at least not in the vicinity of a Trump venue. He’s pretty clear: making something go boom around big Trump and Musk identifiers would get everyone’s attention. As indeed it did.

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acdha
3 days ago
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I think we know why…
Washington, DC
sarcozona
3 hours ago
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