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Traditionally strong — what went wrong?

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‘Germany’s economy is in free fall’, warns Peter Leibinger, president of the Federation of German Industries (BDI). The German automotive sector, at the heart of its business model, is undergoing a disruptive process. Almost 50 000 jobs were lost in the space of a year (third quarter of 2025 compared with one year ago), with the number of automobile workers declining to a level not seen since 2011. The rest of the manufacturing sector is faring little better, with the total number of jobs falling by 120 000. A sign of the general weakness of traditional German businesses is that German GDP is no higher than it was six years ago.

With China now flooding European markets with cheap, attractive electric vehicles, these negative trends are likely to continue. Germany’s traditional manufacturing base is further challenged by its almost complete absence of a digital sector — internet platforms, semiconductor producers and software companies. In this area, the United States is by far the dominant economy. Consequently, Germany is the European country most seriously affected by the ‘middle-technology trap’ identified by economists as a threat to Europe in general.

Germany’s unique position is illustrated by the average age of its top 20 firms (measured by market capitalisation): 129 years. While it is not negative that companies have successfully transformed over the decades, the problem is that new, globally relevant companies have not been developed in either the electronic and digital sphere or the field of renewable energies — batteries, electric vehicles or solar panels, for example. This raises the question of why other countries, particularly the United States and China, have performed much better in establishing major companies outside the traditional manufacturing sector.

China planned its dominance; America hid its hand

For China, the answer is simple. In 2015, the country developed the ‘Made in China 2025’ master plan, identifying core industries in which it intended to gain global leadership: information technology, computerised machines, robots, energy-saving vehicles, medical devices and high-tech equipment for aerospace, maritime and rail transport. Ten years later, it is clear that this strategy has been successful. China dominates the global market, especially in the supply chain of renewable energies. The threat that this strategy posed to Germany’s manufacturing sector was identified as early as 2016 in a study by the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies. In an article for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung on 12 August 2017, I warned of the challenges posed by China’s industrial policy for Germany. In response, my fellow members of the Council of Economic Experts criticised me, questioning my economic expertise.

But what about the United States? Here, the dominant narrative seems to support the view of many German economists that innovation cannot and should not be managed by the government, which is supposedly unable to ‘pick winners’. This narrative is supported by famous stories about the origins of big tech companies, which often depict their founders as starting their businesses in a garage: Bill Gates in 1975 (Microsoft); Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak in 1976 (Apple); Larry Page and Sergey Brin in 1998 (Google).

This seems to confirm the Hayekian view of competition as a discovery process, the idea that a market system has an innate capacity for innovation as long as it is not disturbed by government regulations and burdensome taxes. The ‘garage’ narrative is presented in the 2018/19 Annual Report (paragraph 158) of the German Council of Economic Experts:

‘In order to be sustainably successful, however, an innovation location should refrain from a guiding industrial policy, which sees it as a state task to identify future markets and technologies as strategically important (…). It is unlikely that policymakers have sufficient knowledge and understanding of future technological developments or changes in demand to make this a meaningful long-term strategy. If the government is concerned about sustainable progress, it should rather rely on the decentralised knowledge and the individual actions of various actors of the national economy.’

Unfortunately, the misconception of the US digital agenda continues to shape economic thinking in Germany to this day.

However, this raises the question of why Germany has been unable to develop similar garage success stories. There has certainly been no shortage of garages or very smart young people. To understand the digital dominance of the United States, one must look beyond the standard narrative. The explanation lies in the comprehensive yet ‘hidden’ industrial policy pursued by the US government in the 1950s and 1960s. In the words of Wade (2014):

‘The dominant approach to selective industrial policy took the form of government support for “basic” research in a plethora of military laboratories. Hence the quip: “America has had three types of industrial policy: first, World War II; second, the Korean War; and third, the Vietnam War.” The focus on “basic” and “military” research avoided the ideological issues surrounding industrial policy because even market fundamentalists accepted that the government should fund the development of new weapons and intelligence systems.’

Data on US R&D spending illustrates the significant contribution of military R&D spending in the 1950s and 1960s. Expenditure by the Department of Defense and NASA accounted for over 50 per cent of total R&D spending in the United States. This spending’s importance becomes evident when considering that, in 1960, US defence spending accounted for 36 per cent of global R&D expenditure.

Thus, contrary to the mainstream narrative, it was the US government that had a clear strategic vision of boosting electronic computers, computer software and semiconductor components, giving birth to the internet and, more recently, digital platforms. US industrial policy remains active to this day, as evidenced by In-Q-Tel (or IQT), the CIA’s investment arm, which describes its role as follows:

‘For more than a quarter of a century, IQT has delivered significant mission impact by building a unique – and uniquely powerful – not-for-profit global investment platform that accelerates the introduction of groundbreaking technologies to enhance the national security and prosperity of America and its allies.’

Therefore, as long as most German politicians and economists continue to adhere to a flawed concept of growth and innovation, the outlook for the German economy will remain bleak.

Unfortunately, the misconception of the US digital agenda continues to shape economic thinking in Germany to this day. Katherina Reiche, the Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, in particular, has a deep belief in the virtues of a free market economy. At a recent symposium, she argued that the government should focus on its core competencies, such as external security, education, and infrastructure. She believes that subsidies and funding programmes should be rigorously scrutinised. In her view, competition is the most important driver of innovation (“prosperity through competition”), although she also acknowledged that US tech giants are a key source of economic dynamism in America.

The lack of a comprehensive strategy for transforming the German economy is particularly damaging as the reform of the so-called debt brake in March 2025 created an opportunity to actively promote fundamental innovations. However, due to this conceptual void, much of the additional financial space will be used to lower the energy costs of existing firms (around €30 billion in the 2026 budget), while only €4.5 billion will be available for the so-called HighTech Agenda Deutschland.

Therefore, as long as most German politicians and economists continue to adhere to a flawed concept of growth and innovation, the outlook for the German economy will remain bleak. Caught between a rock (China) and a hard place (the US), its manufacturing sector will continue to shrink without a corresponding rise in new competitive technologies.

Is the situation really that hopeless? There is still a glimmer of hope. The reform of the debt brake makes it possible for all defence expenditures exceeding one per cent of GDP to be financed with debt. There is no limit to this. This creates an opportunity to use the defence sector to promote new technologies that can be used for purposes beyond the military. In this regard, Germany could adopt the US model of ‘hidden’ industrial policy to help it escape the middle-technology trap.

This is a joint publication by Social Europe and IPS Journal.



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Why Iran’s crisis is Russia’s problem

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Iran’s ongoing political unrest is no longer just a domestic crisis. It is becoming a strategic problem for Moscow, directly affecting Russia’s energy position, its ability to manage sanctions pressure and, ultimately, its capacity to finance a prolonged war in Ukraine.

For Russia, Iran has long functioned as a sanctioned but stable partner, politically isolated, strategically aligned and economically constrained in ways that limited Tehran’s ability to pivot towards the West. That stability is now in question. Prolonged unrest threatens to turn a useful partner into a source of uncertainty at a moment when the Kremlin can least afford it.

A period of prolonged uncertainty

The protests, which began in late December, have continued despite severe repression. Human rights organisations and independent monitoring groups estimate that more than 5 000 people have been killed and tens of thousands detained. Internet access, satellite connections and even basic telephone services were repeatedly shut down for days at a time. Inside Iran, there is widespread belief that Russian technical and security assistance helped enable these nationwide communication blackouts, drawing on Moscow’s own experience with digital control, repression and surveillance.

Whether every element of this assistance can be independently verified matters less than its political effect. Protesters who oppose the Islamic Republic’s political system increasingly view Russia as an enabler of repression and a long-standing partner of the regime. This links Moscow directly to a deeply unpopular political order and raises the stakes of any future change in Tehran for Russian interests.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has relied on Iran as part of its sanctions-era survival strategy.

What began as economically driven unrest, rooted in inflation, currency collapse and declining living standards, has rapidly taken on a political character.  Over the past decade, repeated waves of protest have transformed Iranian society into a movement-oriented one in which protest is no longer exceptional but increasingly expected. Today, most political groups and protest movements believe that meaningful change requires structural transformation, either through fundamental reform or a reconfiguration of power that makes genuine economic and political reform possible.

External pressure has sharpened this dynamic. Donald Trump’s return to the White House brought renewed sanctions and ended any remaining hope of near-term diplomatic relief. At the same time, Iran’s regional position weakened. The twelve-day war with Israel, including the killing of senior commanders, marked a turning point. Combined with the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s rule in Syria and the arrest of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, these developments pushed Iran’s political system into a period of heightened tension and structural fragility.

The result is not imminent collapse, but prolonged uncertainty. If the US refrains from direct military action and no major external shock intervenes, Iran is likely to enter a period of internal adjustment and elite tension. That uncertainty is precisely what alarms Moscow.

Loss of leverage

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has relied on Iran as part of its sanctions-era survival strategy. The relationship has been pragmatic rather than ideological, built on military cooperation, diplomatic alignment and coordination under Western pressure. Iran mattered to Moscow precisely because it was predictable — a partner with few alternatives and a willingness to cooperate politically, economically and on security. That leverage will erode once Iran is no longer cut off from the world.

From the Kremlin’s perspective, almost every plausible future political trajectory in Iran is problematic. A sudden leadership change or systemic transformation would likely push Tehran, over time, toward repairing relations with Europe and re-entering global markets. Even a controlled survival of the current system would probably empower more pragmatic actors focused on economic stabilisation rather than geopolitical confrontation. In both scenarios, Russia loses leverage.

The energy implications are central. Iran holds some of the world’s largest oil and gas reserves, but sanctions and isolation have kept much of that potential offline. This has indirectly benefited Russia by limiting competition in already tight global markets, particularly since the war in Ukraine has reshaped Europe’s energy flows.

Russia’s war financing depends heavily on energy revenues.

If a future Iranian leadership opens the door, even gradually, to Western and European energy companies, regional supply dynamics would shift. Increased Iranian exports would push prices down and reduce Russia’s ability to use energy scarcity as leverage over Europe. For Moscow, this is not just about market share. It is about control.

Russia’s war financing depends heavily on energy revenues. Any development that increases supply, reduces prices or diversifies Europe’s long-term energy options directly undermines the Kremlin’s fiscal base. A reintegrated Iran would do all three.

Even short of full reintegration, a less isolated Iran would complicate Russia’s informal sanctions-evasion networks and reduce the value of Tehran as a strategic economic partner.

There is another structural problem for Moscow. Russia’s closest relationships in Iran are not with civil society or economic technocrats, but with security institutions and hardline political networks, many linked to the Revolutionary Guard or the Supreme Leader’s office. These are precisely the actors most directly challenged by the current unrest. If their influence weakens through political reform, elite reshuffling or generational change, Russia’s access and leverage will weaken with them. And Moscow has few meaningful ties to the social or political forces likely to shape Iran’s future.

This is why reports and rumours of Russian assistance in surveillance, internet shutdowns and crowd control matter strategically. They may help preserve short-term stability, but they deepen long-term hostility. Repression may buy time, but it does not buy loyalty.

Unlike the situation in Venezuela in early 2026, where the United States’ detention of President Nicolás Maduro highlighted the limits of Russian leverage, Moscow has taken care not to abandon Tehran amid the ongoing crisis. On 15 January 2026, during an emergency United Nations Security Council meeting convened at the request of the United States to discuss Iran’s deadly protests and ‘possible military strikes’, the Russian delegation firmly rejected what it described as foreign interference in Iran’s internal affairs and criticised the US for using the situation for political ends.

If Iran’s political trajectory shifts in the coming months or years, the outcome is unlikely to favour Moscow.

For Europe, the implications are significant. Iran’s unrest intersects with debates over sanctions, energy security and the sustainability of Russia’s war economy. From a European perspective, political change in Iran would ease pressure on energy markets and further constrain Russia’s war economy. This helps explain why Moscow has intensified its intelligence, security and informational support for the Islamic Republic in recent weeks, from assistance in repression and surveillance to full backing in propaganda and information warfare, including in international forums.

Iran’s protests are often framed as a test of the Islamic Republic’s political system. They are also a test of Russia’s assumptions about how much control sanctioned partnerships can really provide. They directly affect Russia’s energy calculations, its capacity to sustain war financing, and its ability to withstand Western pressure. Iran’s unrest, therefore, reveals a vulnerability in Moscow’s broader strategic posture that Russia is unlikely to contain or manage easily.

If Iran’s political trajectory shifts in the coming months or years, the outcome is unlikely to favour Moscow. Such a shift would weaken Russia’s position not only in the Middle East but also in the context of the war in Ukraine, by undermining one of its few remaining strategic partnerships formed under sanctions and isolation. This is also why Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has publicly urged the international community to support Iranian protesters and political change in Iran.

For Russia, what happens in Iran is no longer a peripheral concern. It is directly tied to the future balance of power in Europe and the trajectory of the war in Ukraine.



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Why George Abbott’s Book on Indigenous Rights Matters | The Tyee

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Former cabinet minister and current treaty commissioner George Abbott’s new book provides a timely reminder that British Columbia’s current struggles around Indigenous rights and title are the direct result of past government decisions over many years.

Available from UBC Press imprint Purich Books, Unceded: Understanding British Columbia’s Colonial Past and Why It Matters Now traces how successive governments treated the “land question” going back to the formation of the colonies and tracks repeated failures to try to settle it.

The book comes as the province grapples with major court decisions around Aboriginal title and MLAs argue over whether the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act should be repealed or just revised, in either case over the objections of Indigenous leaders.

“We’re now having to deal in 2026 with issues that might have been remedied effectively 170 years ago, but were not,” Abbott told The Tyee in an interview. “We’re paying for the failures of the ancestors, and the courts are saying very clearly you have to do that. It’s not an option to put it off another 170 years.”

The Supreme Court of British Columbia’s decision last summer in Cowichan Tribes v. Canada, and the political response to it, is a prime example.

In the lengthy ruling, Justice Barbara M. Young found the descendants of the Quwʼutsun Nation have Aboriginal title to about 780 acres of Tl’uqtinus, their summer fishing village on the south arm of the Fraser River, and have an Aboriginal right to fish for food in the area.

The Crown had unjustifiably infringed on the Quwʼutsun Nation’s Aboriginal title, she found, and declared the federal government and the City of Richmond’s titles to some of the lands defective and invalid.

The ruling left other private property intact. But it said “B.C. has a duty to negotiate with the Cowichan to reconcile their Aboriginal title with the private fee simple interests in a manner that accords with the honour of the Crown.”

Abbott called the decision important and said it will be interesting to see what happens as it goes through two levels of appeal.

“I think the justice got most of the decision right,” he said. “I think she did a pretty good job on the history.... She established very clearly that Cowichan Tribes, or today Cowichan Nations, made good use of their opportunity to fish on the Fraser River, as did many other nations.”

However, going the further step of calling into question the titles to fee simple private land in the area — something the Quwʼutsun plaintiffs were not seeking — may have the opposite effect from what the justice imagined, Abbott said.

“Rather than encouraging the parties to negotiate, it encouraged them to appeal, for different reasons,” he said.

“From what I know of government it’s not something that would move the matters along” and would instead make it more complicated, he said. “I don’t think Justice Young’s decision left government in a strong negotiating position, and I suspect that’s part of the calculus moving forward.... It’s a tough decision to work from politically.”

While Abbott stresses that he is happily no longer a politician, he did sit many years at the cabinet table. He was the MLA for Shuswap for 17 years under BC Liberal premiers Gordon Campbell and Christy Clark with assignments that included minister of Aboriginal relations and reconciliation and minister of health.

After leaving office he earned a PhD in political science from the University of Victoria, turning his thesis into the book Big Promises, Small Government: Doing Less with Less in the BC Liberal New Era.

Abbott’s new book is also rooted in his experience in government. “I met more than a few colonial ghosts,” he wrote, “while serving as British Columbia’s minister of Aboriginal services from 2001 to 2004 and minister of Aboriginal relations and reconciliation from 2009 to 2010.”

A 2010 visit to Tsay Keh Dene village left a particularly strong impression. The people he met had much of their traditional territories flooded in 1968 with the filling of the Williston reservoir.

“How could such injustices have occurred only a few decades earlier?” asked Abbott. “The Tsay Keh Dene had been uprooted by my predecessors in government, rendered ‘refugees on their own lands,’ then capriciously neglected and disregarded in the years that followed.”

Nor were they alone in the “callous treatment they suffered at the hands of the government,” he wrote.

As Abbott thoroughly documents, the pattern was in place almost from the founding of the colonies that became British Columbia. While Gov. James Douglas took a relatively enlightened approach, leaving it up to First Nations to determine what land they needed, later governments resisted and undermined efforts to establish fair reserves.

One of the more important elements in the book, Abbott said, is the examination of British Columbia’s policy from Douglas’s retirement until the 1920s to create reserves only as white settlement proceeded. It was the opposite approach from what Canada had taken east of the Rocky Mountains, where treaties were negotiated ahead of white settlement.

The reserves in B.C. were also much smaller than those created in other parts of the country, especially on the coast, he said, setting the stage for decades of conflict.

“It did not have to be this way,” wrote Abbott. “A more constructive path was followed during the early colonial years under Governor James Douglas, but his approach crashed up against settler resistance, ushering in the brutal racism of Joseph Trutch and William Smithe and innumerable injustices in the century of darkness that followed.”

After replacing Douglas, Trutch became B.C.’s first lieutenant-governor. Smithe was premier from 1883 to 1887.

“Trutch dismissed the notion of Aboriginal title out of hand, as most of his successors would for the next 125 years,” wrote Abbott, tracing to him the theme that Indigenous people were a barrier to economic development instead of partners in it.

“Trutch’s views were rooted at the far end of settler racism,” Abbott wrote in another section. “He used the power of his political offices — along with lies and intimidation, when needed — to undermine Douglas’s vision for Indigenous relations.”

Abbott said he learned much in working on the chapters about the Royal Commission on Indian Affairs for the Province of British Columbia, known as the McKenna-McBride commission, conducted between 1913 and 1916.

He was astonished at the number of First Nations who returned from their seasonal rounds to a site they’d long occupied only to find it had been taken over by the province, he said. “Those kinds of situations have occurred around the province and to me that’s why we need as quickly as we can to get treaties with First Nations that recognize past injustices, or I’m also very supportive of foundation agreements.”

Foundation agreements, like the one signed with the Lake Babine Nation in 2020, aren’t a full treaty settlement but include many of the same measures, he said.

Abbott doesn’t shy from acknowledging how his views, or at least his willingness to champion them, have changed over the years.

In writing about the NDP’s approach in opposition under Carole James’ leadership, he said: “To her credit, James recognized an uncomfortable truth that [former premier Gordon] Campbell and the BC Liberals (including me) had chosen to ignore in the context of the Nisga’a Treaty debates in the latter 1990s: the benefits of advancing reconciliation and remediating past injustices through treaty making can be all too easily lost in the cut and thrust of parliamentary debate and tactical partisan positioning.”

Similarly, he expresses relief that Campbell’s 2009 election campaign kept reconciliation in the background. “BC Liberal MLAs (like me) who believed that economic management was a far safer electoral battleground than a Recognition and Reconciliation Act had good reason to be pleased with Campbell’s election campaign and its outcome.”

There is also blame for others who stalled progress, in particular Campbell’s successor Christy Clark. “Premier Clark did not share her predecessor’s fascination with public policy as an instrument of reform,” wrote Abbott. “There would be no big and bold Indigenous relations initiatives during her tenure.... Indigenous relations was of interest only when it facilitated economic development.”

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Cowichan Decision and Beyond: Letting Go of Zero-Sum Thinking
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He also addresses the Clark government’s strange last-minute revoking of his appointment as the BC Treaty Commission’s chief commissioner in 2015, six months after then-Aboriginal affairs minister John Rustad recruited him, though to this day he’s unsure what drove the decision.

His current appointment to the commission was made last year by the NDP government.

The book includes a useful chronology that covers from 1846 to 2024, as well as extensive endnotes, an index and recommendations for further reading, including works by Indigenous and non-Indigenous writers.

In general, Abbott said, he’s optimistic the province is moving in the right direction on reconciliation. While there is rhetoric in the legislature from some members, particularly OneBC leader and Vancouver-Quilchena MLA Dallas Brodie, that hasn’t been seen in decades, he said; most support moving ahead.

“The great majority of members of the assembly, whether they are Conservative or New Democrat, want the treaty process to be effective and see a reconciliation of the injustices of the past,” he said. “I think there is a broad consensus in the assembly that we should remedy injustice and move along the path to reconciliation as quickly as we can.”

In the book Abbott said he hopes to bring the lessons he learned while writing it to his work with the BC Treaty Commission.

“There are dozens of situations where injustices have been imposed as a consequence of historical policies by the government of British Columbia,” Abbott told The Tyee, adding that identifying and remedying them are a big part of reconciliation.

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George Abbott Looks Back at the BC Liberals New Era, and Doesn’t Like What He Sees
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Abbott’s book includes a foreword by Steven Point, former Grand Chief of the Stó:lō Tribal Council, provincial court judge and the province’s first Indigenous lieutenant-governor.

“The simple truth is that when Europeans arrived in the so-called New World, they did not find an empty land but rather a land with millions of Indigenous people who already owned and occupied their homelands,” he wrote.

“Aboriginal title to the land in British Columbia is a legal reality and must be dealt with in our time, if we can,” he said, adding that, despite Canada being one of the wealthiest countries on the planet, most Indigenous people live in developing-world conditions on federal reserves.

“We have to conclude respectful treaties that will allow First Nations real benefits from their own homelands,” Point wrote. “A share in the resources being extracted would allow First Nations to finance their own healing from our oppressive colonial past.”

At a time when there seems to be growing confusion about the way forward and weakening commitment to reconciliation, Unceded grounds the current debates in B.C.’s colonial history and argues for a better future.  [Tyee]

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Roundup: Once again, food prices are up because of climate change

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Yesterday was inflation data day, and it did tick upward, but for the reason that there was a base-year effect, meaning that because a year ago, the government instituted their stupid “GST holiday” as a gimmick to boost them in the polls, and that shakes out in the inflation data a year later because prices are that much higher a year later (and inflation is a year-over-year measure). But where this bites particularly hard is with food from restaurants, as that was one of the beneficiaries from the “holiday,” and that pushes up the food price index further, which is already high because of things like coffee and beef.

Enter Pierre Poilievre, who sees those higher numbers and starts to immediately caterwaul about them, without actually reading the rest of the data about why things like coffee and beef are climbing in price, and spoiler, it has a lot to do with climate change. “Adverse weather conditions” is generally things like droughts or extreme weather, most of which is climate-change related. Cattle inventories are low because the drought on the prairies meant that ranchers had to cull their herds because importing feed was expensive, and that means a lower supply and lower supply means higher prices (which is basic supply-and-demand). But Poilievre keeps trying to insist that this is about “hidden taxes” and that deficits are driving inflation, which is not the case. But will anyone on the government side correct him and his disinformation? Of course not.

It's too bad reading comprehension is so difficult for these jackasses.Food purchased from restaurants is up because of the base-year effect of last year's "GST holiday."Grocery pricers are up because the two main drivers were affected by drought.www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quo…

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-01-19T15:14:03.719Z

From the 2025 annual CPI report, on food prices. "Adverse weather conditions" is mostly droughts, but also extreme weather driven by climate change.These price increases have fuck all to do with "taxes" or government deficits. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quo…

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-01-19T15:14:03.720Z

But will any member of the government actually point any of this out? Of course not. They will pat themselves on the back for the school food programme, or the Canada Child Benefit, but because they believe that "if you're explaining you're losing," they never explain, and the lies just fester.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-01-19T15:14:03.721Z

And here’s the kicker—Environment Canada is predicting that this will once again be among the four hottest years on record, and that is likely going to mean more droughts, possibly more extreme weather—because this does affect hurricane formation—and that’s again going to impact food-producing regions, which will raise prices even more. But Poilievre and the Conservatives refuse to believe this. They have openly scoffed in Question Period about this, and said stupid things like “paying a tax won’t change the weather,” as if that was what the point was. And then there’s Carney, gutting our environmental programmes left and right in the name of diversifying our economy, which will exacerbate things even further. So long as they all continue to play this ignorant little game, things will continue to get more expensive, and they will keep looking for more scapegoats rather than looking in the mirror.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched a combined drone and missile assault on Kyiv, cutting off power and water supplies in parts of the city. The night before, drone strikes cut power across five different regions. President Zelenskyy announced a new facet of their air defences system, working to transform the system with more interceptor drones.

Good reads:

  • Mark Carney is apparently still mulling the “Board of Peace’ invitation in spite of the Putin invitation and the $1 billion entry fee. (Seriously?!)
  • Carney is now in Davos, Switzerland, to suck up to oligarchs and billionaires at the World Economic Forum in the name of diversifying trade.
  • Canada has finally opened a high commission in Fiji, with Randeep Sarai in attendance, three years after promising to do so.
  • Thousands of civil servants have now received notices that their jobs may be cut.
  • The Federal Court has rejected the government’s attempt to block transparency on their renegotiations with the US around the Safe Third Country Agreement.
  • Pierre Poilievre and his loyalists are campaigning amongst the party membership base ahead of the leadership review vote at the end of the month.
  • The Conservative Party’s national council has already approved Damien Kurek to run again in Battle River—Crowfoot, meaning Poilievre needs to find a new seat.
  • Former justice minister Jody Wilson-Raybould says she’s undergoing treatment for breast cancer.
  • Doug Ford is still throwing a tantrum about the Chinese EV deal, and the fact that Carney didn’t warn him ahead of time (because Ford can totally be trusted).
  • Thomas Gunton makes the case that the market is showing we don’t need a new pipeline given excess capacity and global oversupply.
  • Susan Delacourt sounds caution for the “Board of Peace” nonsense/grift.
  • Anne Applebaum boggles at Trump’s increasingly unhinged behaviour regarding Greenland, and calls on Congressional Republicans to rein him in.

Odds and ends:

New episodes released early for C$7+ subscribers. This week I talk about the recent spate of "strategic partnerships" with authoritarian countries. #cdnpoli

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-01-20T02:49:31.442Z

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Scientists warn of ‘regime shift’ as seaweed blooms expand worldwide | Oceans | The Guardian

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Scientists have warned of a potential “regime shift” in the oceans, as the rapid growth of huge mats of seaweed appears to be driven by global heating and excessive enrichment of waters from farming runoff and other pollutants.

Over the past two decades, seaweed blooms have expanded by a staggering 13.4% a year in the tropical Atlantic and western Pacific, with the most dramatic increases occurring after 2008, according to researchers at the University of South Florida.

In a new paper, they say this shift could darken the waters below, changing their ecology and geochemistry, and may also accelerate climate breakdown.

“Before 2008, there were no major blooms of macroalgae [seaweed] reported except for sargassum in the Sargasso Sea,” said Chuanmin Hu, a professor of oceanography at the USF College of Marine Science and the paper’s senior author.

“On a global scale, we appear to be witnessing a regime shift from a macroalgae-poor ocean to an macroalgae-rich ocean.”

Hu and his colleagues carried out the research in response to reports of expanding seaweed blooms in the Atlantic and Pacific.

The best-known example, the Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt, is visible from space, stretching from the Gulf of Mexico to the mouth of the Congo. Other blooms include a ring around the Chatham Islands off New Zealand, captured by Nasa this month, or “the red tide” that surfaced off the coast of Florida, which have been monitored by the state.

The scientists used artificial intelligence to scan 1.2m satellite pictures of the oceans taken between 2003 and 2022. A deep-learning model was employed to detect signals of floating algae – a process that took several months.

The team, who say their study provides the first global picture of algae floating in the world’s oceans, found that seaweed blooms increased in area by 13.4% a year over the period examined. Blooms of microalgae, such as phytoplankton, also increased but at a relatively more modest 1% a year.

“What is noteworthy is that most increases in both floating macroalgae and microalgae scums occurred in the recent decade, in line with the accelerated global ocean warming since 2010,” the authors wrote. They identified tipping points in 2008, 2011 and 2012 for three types of seaweed in different oceans.

However, while seaweed such as sargassum had thrived in some regions, phytoplankton have not shown similar responses to the changing environment, suggesting their growth may be more sensitive to shifts in temperature and eutrophication.

“If this is the case, we believe that a regime shift in oceanographic conditions has already occurred to favour macroalgae, which will have profound impacts on radiative forcing in the atmosphere and light availability in the ocean, as well as on carbon sequestration, ocean biogeochemistry and upper ocean stability,” the researchers wrote.

The findings are published in Nature Communications.

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Agent Psychosis: Are We Going Insane? | Armin Ronacher's Thoughts and Writings

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written on January 18, 2026

You can use Polecats without the Refinery and even without the Witness or Deacon. Just tell the Mayor to shut down the rig and sling work to the polecats with the message that they are to merge to main directly. Or the polecats can submit MRs and then the Mayor can merge them manually. It’s really up to you. The Refineries are useful if you have done a LOT of up-front specification work, and you have huge piles of Beads to churn through with long convoys.

Gas Town Emergency User Manual, Steve Yegge

Many of us got hit by the agent coding addiction. It feels good, we barely sleep, we build amazing things. Every once in a while that interaction involves other humans, and all of a sudden we get a reality check that maybe we overdid it. The most obvious example of this is the massive degradation of quality of issue reports and pull requests. As a maintainer many PRs now look like an insult to one’s time, but when one pushes back, the other person does not see what they did wrong. They thought they helped and contributed and get agitated when you close it down.

But it’s way worse than that. I see people develop parasocial relationships with their AIs, get heavily addicted to it, and create communities where people reinforce highly unhealthy behavior. How did we get here and what does it do to us?

I will preface this post by saying that I don’t want to call anyone out in particular, and I think I sometimes feel tendencies that I see as negative, in myself as well. I too, have thrown some vibeslop up to other people’s repositories.

Our Little Dæmons

In His Dark Materials, every human has a dæmon, a companion that is an externally visible manifestation of their soul. It lives alongside as an animal, but it talks, thinks and acts independently. I’m starting to relate our relationship with agents that have memory to those little creatures. We become dependent on them, and separation from them is painful and takes away from our new-found identity. We’re relying on these little companions to validate us and to collaborate with. But it’s not a genuine collaboration like between humans, it’s one that is completely driven by us, and the AI is just there for the ride. We can trick it to reinforce our ideas and impulses. And we act through this AI. Some people who have not programmed before, now wield tremendous powers, but all those powers are gone when their subscription hits a rate limit and their little dæmon goes to sleep.

Then, when we throw up a PR or issue to someone else, that contribution is the result of this pseudo-collaboration with the machine. When I see an AI pull request come in, or on another repository, I cannot tell how someone created it, but I can usually after a while tell when it was prompted in a way that is fundamentally different from how I do it. Yet it takes me minutes to figure this out. I have seen some coding sessions from others and it’s often done with clarity, but using slang that someone has come up with and most of all: by completely forcing the AI down a path without any real critical thinking. Particularly when you’re not familiar with how the systems are supposed to work, giving in to what the machine says and then thinking one understands what is going on creates some really bizarre outcomes at times.

But people create these weird relationships with their AI agent and once you see how some prompt their machines, you realize that it dramatically alters what comes out of it. To get good results you need to provide context, you need to make the tradeoffs, you need to use your knowledge. It’s not just a question of using the context badly, it’s also the way in which people interact with the machine. Sometimes it’s unclear instructions, sometimes it’s weird role-playing and slang, sometimes it’s just swearing and forcing the machine, sometimes it’s a weird ritualistic behavior. Some people just really ram the agent straight towards the most narrow of all paths towards a badly defined goal with little concern about the health of the codebase.

Addicted to Prompts

These dæmon relationships change not just how we work, but what we produce. You can completely give in and let the little dæmon run circles around you. You can reinforce it to run towards ill defined (or even self defined) goals without any supervision.

It’s one thing when newcomers fall into this dopamine loop and produce something. When Peter first got me hooked on Claude, I did not sleep. I spent two months excessively prompting the thing and wasting tokens. I ended up building and building and creating a ton of tools I did not end up using much. “You can just do things” was what was on my mind all the time but it took quite a bit longer to realize that just because you can, you might not want to. It became so easy to build something and in comparison it became much harder to actually use it or polish it. Quite a few of the tools I built I felt really great about, just to realize that I did not actually use them or they did not end up working as I thought they would.

The thing is that the dopamine hit from working with these agents is so very real. I’ve been there! You feel productive, you feel like everything is amazing, and if you hang out just with people that are into that stuff too, without any checks, you go deeper and deeper into the belief that this all makes perfect sense. You can build entire projects without any real reality check. But it’s decoupled from any external validation. For as long as nobody looks under the hood, you’re good. But when an outsider first pokes at it, it looks pretty crazy. And damn some things look amazing. I too was blown away (and fully expected at the same time) when Cursor’s AI written Web Browser landed. It’s super impressive that agents were able to bootstrap a browser in a week! But holy crap! I hope nobody ever uses that thing or would try to build an actual browser out of it, at least with this generation of agents, it’s still pure slop with little oversight. It’s an impressive research and tech demo, not an approach to building software people should use. At least not yet.

There is also another side to this slop loop addiction: token consumption.

Consider how many tokens these loops actually consume. A well-prepared session with good tooling and context can be remarkably token-efficient. For instance, the entire port of MiniJinja to Go took only 2.2 million tokens. But the hands-off approaches—spinning up agents and letting them run wild—burn through tokens at staggering rates. Patterns like Ralph are particularly wasteful: you restart the loop from scratch each time, which means you lose the ability to use cached tokens or reuse context.

We should also remember that current token pricing is almost certainly subsidized. These patterns may not be economically viable for long. And those discounted coding plans we’re all on? They might not last either.

Slop Loop Cults

And then there are things like Beads and Gas Town, Steve Yegge’s agentic coding tools, which are the complete celebration of slop loops. Beads, which is basically some sort of issue tracker for agents, is 240,000 lines of code that … manages markdown files in GitHub repositories. And the code quality is abysmal.

There appears to be some competition in place to run as many of these agents in parallel with almost no quality control in some circles. And to then use agents to try to create documentation artifacts to regain some confidence of what is actually going on. Except those documents themselves read like slop.

Looking at Gas Town (and Beads) from the outside, it looks like a Mad Max cult. What are polecats, refineries, mayors, beads, convoys doing in an agentic coding system? If the maintainer is in the loop, and the whole community is in on this mad ride, then everyone and their dæmons just throw more slop up. As an external observer the whole project looks like an insane psychosis or a complete mad art project. Except, it’s real? Or is it not? Apparently a reason for slowdown in Gas Town is contention on figuring out the version of Beads, which takes 7 subprocess spawns. Or using the doctor command times out completely. Beads keeps growing and growing in complexity and people who are using it, are realizing that it’s almost impossible to uninstall. And they might not even work well together even though one apparently depends on the other.

I don’t want to pick on Gas Town or these projects, but they are just the most visible examples of this in-group behavior right now. But you can see similar things in some of the AI builder circles on Discord and X where people hype each other up with their creations, without much critical thinking and sanity checking of what happens under the hood.

Asymmetric and Maintainer’s Burden

It takes you a minute of prompting and waiting a few minutes for code to come out of it. But actually honestly reviewing a pull request takes many times longer than that. The asymmetry is completely brutal. Shooting up bad code is rude because you completely disregard the time of the maintainer. But everybody else is also creating AI-generated code, but maybe they passed the bar of it being good. So how can you possibly tell as a maintainer when it all looks the same? And as the person writing the issue or the PR, you felt good about it. Yet what you get back is frustration and rejection.

I’m not sure how we will go ahead here, but it’s pretty clear that in projects that don’t submit themselves to the slop loop, it’s going to be a nightmare to deal with all the AI-generated noise.

Even for projects that are fully AI-generated but are setting some standard for contributions, some folks now prefer actually just getting the prompts over getting the actual code. Because then it’s clearer what the person actually intended. There is more trust in running the agent oneself than having other people do it.

Is Agent Psychosis Real?

Which really makes me wonder: am I missing something here? Is this where we are going? Am I just not ready for this new world? Are we all collectively getting insane?

Particularly if you want to opt out of this craziness right now, it’s getting quite hard. Some projects no longer accept human contributions until they have vetted the people completely. Others are starting to require that you submit prompts alongside your code, or just the prompts alone.

I am a maintainer who uses AI myself, and I know others who do. We’re not luddites and we’re definitely not anti-AI. But we’re also frustrated when we encounter AI slop on issue and pull request trackers. Every day brings more PRs that took someone a minute to generate and take an hour to review.

There is a dire need to say no now. But when one does, the contributor is genuinely confused: “Why are you being so negative? I was trying to help.” They were trying to help. Their dæmon told them it was good.

Maybe the answer is that we need better tools — better ways to signal quality, better ways to share context, better ways to make the AI’s involvement visible and reviewable. Maybe the culture will self-correct as people hit walls. Maybe this is just the awkward transition phase before we figure out new norms.

Or maybe some of us are genuinely losing the plot, and we won’t know which camp we’re in until we look back. All I know is that when I watch someone at 3am, running their tenth parallel agent session, telling me they’ve never been more productive — in that moment I don’t see productivity. I see someone who might need to step away from the machine for a bit. And I wonder how often that someone is me.

Two things are both true to me right now: AI agents are amazing and a huge productivity boost. They are also massive slop machines if you turn off your brain and let go completely.

This entry was tagged ai

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