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Some people in NZ want to blame lockdowns for the claim that children across the country are 1-2 years behind.

When the first lockdown began on 26/3/20, school holidays began immediately. When the holiday ended, there were just 9 days online learning until level 3 on 28/4. 1/ Image

Although schools reopened on 28/4, many families opted to continue online learning until the move to level 2 on 14/5. That's a total of 22 days online learning in 2020, 13 days of which were by choice. 2/
rnz.co.nz/news/national/…
The second time the whole country went into lockdown for an extended period was on 18/8/21. By 9/9/21, everywhere except Auckland had moved back to level 2 and children were back at school, having missed 16 days. 3/
rnz.co.nz/news/national/…
So, that's 22 days in 2020 and 16 days in 2021 of schools moving to online learning and allegedly resulting in children being 1-2 years behind.

Somehow, I don't think that's the reason. 4/

thread#showTweet data-screenname=CatieZee data-tweet=1836269539774075388 dir=auto> I want to acknowledge that lockdown was very hard for some families, and that Auckland was in lockdown for a lot longer in 2021. I am not saying this did not have an impact on children. But being at home with your family in most cases would not lead to being behind by 1-2 yrs. 5/

Claim about impact of lockdown is from this article. end

nzherald.co.nz/nz/education-c…

thread#showTweet data-screenname=CatieZee data-tweet=1836276833110614026 dir=auto> Another interesting fact about school attendance: attendance was better in 2020 and 2021 than 2019. It was only after students (and teachers!) started getting sick that attendance went down. Image

Another interesting fact about lockdown: students were more positive about their households during lockdown than after.
evidence.ero.govt.nz/documents/the-…
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sarcozona
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Lockdowns aren’t great, but they weren’t the devastating events many folks claim they were. And the solution to lockdowns isn’t “back to normal” but indoor air quality upgrades and mask wearing during illness waves.
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Lockdowns Didn't "Prematurely Age" Teen Girl's Brains

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Lockdowns have been one of the most contentious aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic since they were first enacted. Some people argue that every intervention that governments implemented during the pandemic was entirely justified due to the danger of the virus. Others took the position that the virus was basically safe for most of humanity and therefore governments should do little to nothing to combat it.

Personally, I have published scientifically arguing that it’s complex - some interventions were probably justified, some probably weren’t, and we have made little effort since 2020 to figure out which is which.

Now, headlines have called into question the idea that lockdowns could have done any good. According to a new study, it appears that lockdowns may have prematurely aged the brains of teenagers, which could impact everything from their mental health to future job prospects.

Fortunately, the data doesn’t really show this at all. This story is a case study in problematic science, and why it’s important to read the study even if it is published in a prestigious journal with a funny acronym.

The study in question is a neurological examination of teen brains. The researchers put a bunch of adolescents aged 9-17 into MRIs before the pandemic, and then looked at their brains again a few years later. They used this data to look at what had happened to the brains in the interim using a variety of statistical techniques.

As MRI studies go, this one isn’t totally woeful in design. It’s small, but the authors have done used some interesting methods to try and make useful inferences about the data they’ve collected. Unfortunately, there really is only so much you can do with data from about 100 children.

The usual thing to do with a sample like this would be to compare the changes before/after and make some inferences, but that has relatively limited usefulness. You can’t really say which changes might’ve happened just due to age, and which might be to external factors. So the researchers did something clever - they divided their sample randomly into three groups - a ‘normative’ model, a validation sample, and finally their test group.

The authors then used the ‘normative’ model group to give them an idea of what teen brain development looked like in this area of Washington State prior to the pandemic. They looked at the differences between 9, 11, 13, 15, and 17-year old brains in this group, which gave them this ‘normative’ model to compare to. It’s basically a way of estimating what normal brains should look like in this region of the world at different ages.

The authors validated this on a small sample of the other pre-pandemic brains, and then finally tested the post-pandemic group against the ‘normative’ development. They found that there were no meaningful differences for boys, but for girls there were a number of brain regions which had unexpected changes that are associated with greater age. They used a fairly complex statistical model to then estimate that these changes were similar to an additional 4.2 years of age for the teen girls.

There are obviously some weaknesses to this design. It’s much more useful than simply comparing a pre/post sample, because we have some idea about what we might expect the post sample to look like. However, the sample is still quite small, and we don’t really know that all of the differences pre pandemic were due simply to age. The authors created their ‘normative’ model based on about a dozen children of each age, which means that even one or two kids who diverged from the norm could’ve thrown their model off.

The 4.2 year number is also a bit meaningless. The authors compared 25 girls aged 12, 14, and 16 post-pandemic to their modelled estimates from prior to the pandemic, and had no longitudinal pre-pandemic samples. So we can say that the 25 girls who they tested after the pandemic were had differences that looked similar to a 4.2-year age difference in girl’s brains prior to the pandemic, but that doesn’t even tell us if these differences are particularly abnormal for this cohort.

Similarly, the authors couldn’t control for any factors aside from age and gender, because the sample is simply too small. Which brings us to an interesting point - what does any of this have to do with lockdowns?

Simple answer, really: nothing. The study does not, in any way, examine the effects of lockdown on teen brains.

Rather, the study shows that teen girls’ brains after the pandemic were different to the expected trends from brains before the pandemic. This could be caused by many things. Maybe the virus itself, which can cause some changes to brain chemistry, is to blame. Perhaps it was the global disruption brought about by a novel pandemic. Maybe the girls were more vulnerable than boys to things like relatives dying of COVID-19. We have no idea, because the authors didn’t do anything to investigate these myriad explanations. They don’t even report that the children in the study were present in Washington State for the lockdowns, nor whether they experienced similar lockdown impacts (i.e. school closures).

To make any inferences about lockdowns, the authors would’ve had to find some control group who’d had a different exposure to their intervention. Perhaps MRIs from kids in Florida, which had different COVID-19 restrictions, or a longitudinal sample from before the pandemic. These would all be inadequate samples for one reason or another, but they would’ve at least given some insight into whether lockdowns were associated with the cortical thinning seen in the research. As it stands, the study tells us nothing at all.

You can’t just blame the media here - the authors put the word “lockdown” into their study. It’s the second word of the title of their paper. Despite the paper having nothing to do with lockdowns.

This is, in a word, bad. Bad science. Poorly thought-through. Inadequate in a very serious way. How did it get published in the prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS), you ask?

PNAS is certainly prestigious, but they also have a bizarre and outdated submission system. If you are not a member of the National Academy of Science in the US, you can submit papers to the journal and they are peer-reviewed as normal. But members can submit two papers per year under what is called the contributor track. In this track, PNAS gives the authors of the paper the ability to control aspects of the editorial process - in particular, they get to choose their own reviewers and manage the peer-review discussions themselves.

Of course, peer review is not the great bastion against scientific issues that some think it is, but it’s easy to see how this contributor track undermines even the more basic aspects of the process. If you can pick a few friends to glance over your paper, you can usually get whatever you want published. For example, you might be able to get a paper out talking about the negative impact of lockdowns even though you didn’t once assess lockdowns.

The new study mostly just shows that there may be some changes to the brains of teen girls in Washington State that happened sometime during the years of 2020-2022 which are unexpected. What caused these changes is impossible to pin down using this study design.

All of the headlines were wrong. It’s hard to know who to blame here - the overeager authors, the virality of social media, or the journalists who breathlessly reported the findings without once checking to see whether they were reasonable - but it’s clear that something broke down.

It’s certainly possible that lockdowns had some impact on teen brains. We know that restrictive COVID-19 interventions had a mixed effect on mental health for kids, with a range of negative effects but also some positive ones. The impact in this study was not necessarily negative - cortical thinning isn’t per se a problem - but it could be associated with other brain changes that were.

That being said, all the new study really proves is that there were some statistically significant changes to the brains of teens in Washington State between 2020 and 2022. What that means for lockdowns, public policy, or our knowledge of COVID-19 itself is anyone’s guess.

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sarcozona
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I wasn’t the only one to think that brain study had nothing to do with lockdowns
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Consistent FFP2-masking as part of reducing viral respiratory infections on medical wards for allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation | Scientific Reports

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sarcozona
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Family Abandonment During Covid Pandemic. They 'Don't Do Sick'.

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I’ve got a family member who hasn’t seen me in five years because they “don’t do sick”. Suddenly they wanted to visit. I’m housebound - which limits my options. When the topic of masking came up - I was rudely shut down. They demanded a “normal” visit that would be ‘fun.’ The risk to my health did not appear to concern them in the slightest.

I became disabled before the Covid pandemic. I’ve got multiple severe health conditions that leave me stuck in bed (and/or horizontal) the vast majority of the time. As a result I can’t “hide” the fact that I’m sick. 

This particular person has been rather rude on a number of occasions about how they don’t want to have to see how sick I am. They’ve told me not to talk to them unless it’s ‘happy thoughts’. I was even excluded from a zoom Christmas because I couldn’t fake well & my sickness would spoil the holiday. After that exclusion I pulled away from them and made my reasons known. I explained how much their behaviour hurt me and that if they couldn’t accept me the way I am I wouldn’t remain in contact. So I was surprised when they reached out and wanted to visit. My initial gut instinct was to say no.

Unfortunately - being disabled is lonely. The pandemic has only made that worse. The isolation wears on you and it’s easy to accidentally get your hopes up when you really should know better. When this person offered to visit … I thought maybe things had changed. I thought about how nice it would be to have some genuine human connection. I let my guard down.

I got my hopes up - only to have them crushed. I mentioned that the visit would have to be relatively short (I have bad crashes if I over exert or talk/socialize too long) and that I would need them to mask.

I’m immune compromised and am barely holding onto my baseline as it is. I recently had a minor skin infection that made me so sick I was fainting and injured my wrist. My body would NOT do well with Covid. And I’m unwilling to risk my baseline. This person takes absolutely zero precautions and regularly engages in high risk activities. I knew they wouldn’t be willing to take a test so masking seemed like a reasonable request.

I said I would happily provide the masks … but it didn’t matter. I was told that my “stringent requirements” were ridiculous and that THEY deserved to have a “normal & happy visit”. That if I wouldn’t accommodate their idea of normal - they wouldn’t come. 

First off - I reject the idea that one person can determine another person’s idea of normal. Second - if you can’t be happy just because you have to wear a mask for an hour… you may need to re-examine some things about yourself. Perhaps you have unresolved trauma related to the pandemic. Perhaps deep down you know it’s not over and don’t appreciate the mask reminding you of that fact. Perhaps it makes you examine your own frailty and consider that all health is temporary. I can’t possibly know another person's reasons…. but I do know a mask is a small sacrifice to protect a loved one.

The idea that I should risk what’s left of my health just so someone else can feel like things are “normal” is patently absurd to me. So I held my ground and the visit was cancelled. This person is now angry that I’m unwilling to see them. 

This is where boundaries come in. I was completely willing (and actually excited) to see this person after so long. I simply set boundaries to protect myself. They didn’t agree & cancelled the visit… as is their right. They do not have the right to shame me for my boundaries.

This is when I mourn the loss of empathy & compassion that’s been escalating since Covid. I don’t think someone else has the right to decide my “normal”. I find it incredibly insulting that they insinuated they were “deserving” of a happy visit (as though I somehow wasn’t). 

This person hasn’t seen me once in five years. Which means they’ve not helped me with my severe illnesses. Multiple hospital trips, serious setbacks, infections, injuries…. They’ve been looking the other way and living their “don’t do sick” normal life. 

They’ve shown me that they aren’t capable of accepting my illnesses and they aren’t willing to offer help when needed. So who are they to demand I risk my health for their comfort or joy? If I get sick and end up even worse off than I am now…are they going to help? 

Of course not. Yet despite this glaringly obvious fact they still felt entitled to ask me to put my health on the line for them. And they feel comfortable shaming me for not backing down and acquiescing to a visit that aligned to their version of normal. 

I’m hurt and disappointed - but I tell this story to encourage everyone to set and stick to boundaries that protect their health. We can’t control what others do but we can refuse to compromise our own safety. 

There are many people who refuse to acknowledge the realities of chronic illness and who won’t accept that we are still in a global pandemic. It’s a dangerous combination of denial and willful ignorance - one that results in people like me being pressured into taking risks. 

If you’re struggling with people like this in your life - please know you’re allowed to set and stick to personal boundaries. You’re not abnormal, you’re not robbing people of joy and you’re no less deserving of happiness than anyone else. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. 

It’s getting harder and harder to find people who genuinely support disabled individuals - ableism is rampant and eugenicist attitudes are growing at an alarming pace. But there ARE good people out there. We need to find & cherish them. 

Lastly please keep sharing your stories… even the hard ones. It helps people feel they’re less alone and it’s important to bear witness to the suffering and abandonment many are dealing with. Plus you never know when you might change a heart and mind and possibly save a life.

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sarcozona
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Austrian woman is found guilty of fatally infecting her neighbor with COVID-19 | AP News

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VIENNA (AP) — A woman in Austria was found guilty of fatally infecting her neighbor with COVID-19 in 2021, her second pandemic-related conviction in a year, according to local media. A judge sentenced the 54-year-old on Thursday to four months’ suspended imprisonment and an 800-euro fine ($886.75) for grossly negligent homicide.

The victim, who was also a cancer patient, died of pneumonia that was caused by the coronavirus, according to Austrian news agency APA. A virological report showed that the virus DNA matched both the deceased and the 54-year-old woman, proving that the defendant “almost 100 percent” transmitted it, an expert told the court.

“I feel sorry for you personally -- I think that something like this has probably happened hundreds of times,” the judge said Thursday. “But you are unlucky that an expert has determined with almost absolute certainty that it was an infection that came from you.”

While the judge issued the sentence Thursday, APA reported that the verdict isn’t yet final. The names of the victim and defendant were not released in line with Austrian privacy rules.

The woman was convicted of a COVID-related offense last summer, APA reported. The agency said she was sentenced to three months’ suspended imprisonment for intentionally endangering people through communicable diseases. But she was acquitted on the grossly negligent homicide charge at that time.

This week, the judge heard statements from the deceased’s family, who said there had been contact in a stairwell between the neighbors on Dec. 21, 2001 — when the defendant would already have known she had COVID-19. But she denied the meeting, saying she was too sick to get out of bed that day. She also said she believed she had bronchitis, which she typically gets every year.

But the woman’s doctor told police that the defendant had tested positive with a rapid test and told him that she “certainly won’t let herself be locked up” after the result.

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sarcozona
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The growing estrangement between universities and society — University Affairs

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The notion that the future of Canada lies in, or through, its universities is an increasingly hard sell.

Hi, I’m new here. Perhaps I should introduce myself.

Can we divide the world into people who never went to university, people who arrived at university and never left, and people who went for a while? I’m in the last group. I’m aware that many of you are in the second group. Yes, I feel imposter syndrome writing for you.

I graduated from Western University in 1989 with a bachelor’s in political science. It took a while, because first I had to flunk second year chemistry, a task I performed with some enthusiasm. Later, it bugged me when people called what I was studying political “science.” I thought: I’ve seen science, and this isn’t it. I never stopped thinking about university, but only after 2000 did higher education as a policy file enter my portfolio of journalistic interests. In 2000 Jean Chrétien ran his third campaign as the leader of the federal Liberal party. He had two main opponents: Stockwell Day, the youthful leader of the opposition Canadian Alliance; and Paul Martin, the charming leader of every Liberal who didn’t like Chrétien. Chrétien called the election early, to take both men by surprise. He held many of his campaign events on university campuses. It was a classic contrast play. Stockwell Day is the past, he was saying in effect. He doesn’t own a library card. I’m the future. I am surrounded by people in lab coats. In the end, Chrétien won an increased majority in the House of Commons. It might have been his greatest political triumph.

But it was more than talk and tactics. Chrétien had already been investing heavily in university research before the election, and he followed through after, with rapid growth in budgets for granting councils, scholarships and research chairs. Much of Canada’s research effort today can trace its roots to programs that were introduced during the Chrétien era.

In 2003 I began working for Maclean’s, which had a popular university rankings issue and devoted resources year-round to covering higher education. Universities weren’t my beat, but Maclean’s was happy to publish anything I wrote about the sector.

It was an exciting time to be writing about universities. At first.

Chrétien was far from the only politician with his eye on higher ed. There was widespread support in Canadian society for a strong university sector. All kinds of governments hitched their wagons to this vision. In 2005 Indira Samarasekera agreed to become president of the University of Alberta because Ralph Klein told her he had a long-term plan for investment in Alberta universities. In 2007 the British Columbia government’s Campus2020 plan set out to make B.C. “the best-educated, most literate jurisdiction on the continent” by 2020. Quebec’s finance minister wanted to make Montreal “a global crossroads for photonics.”

In 2001 Tom Courchene, the great Queen’s University economist, delivered a kind of manifesto for the era when he published A State of Minds: Toward a Human Capital Future for Canadians. The book asked: “What happens when the world changes in ways that make Canada’s physical capital, natural resources, and geography – once the ultimate competitive advantages – less important than knowledge, information, technological know-how and human capital? What happens to Canadians?”

The surprise answer is, we’re not likely to find out anytime soon. Canada is probably further from that goal today than in 2001. And we’re moving in the wrong direction.

The momentum faded so slowly it took years to notice. Alberta cut its university budgets deeply in 2013. They haven’t really recovered. In 2007 Stephen Harper created a Science, Technology and Innovation Council, with deputy ministers, university presidents, CEOs and a secretariat to produce biennial State of the Nation reports comparing Canada’s science and technology performance against other countries. Increasingly, the reports said Canada was falling behind. So in 2016 Justin Trudeau shut the STIC Council down. No more bad news!

The bad news for university budgets keeps getting worse. Government grants are frozen or declining. Tuition fees for domestic students are often cut or capped, in a gesture of misguided populism. Some universities respond by letting enrolment skyrocket, especially enrolment by international students, who can pay higher fees. Not a perfect solution. And lately, no kind of solution at all, because policymakers have begun to curtail that option too.

But the bad news is not only budgetary. It’s cultural. The notion that the future of Canada lies in, or through, its universities is an increasingly hard sell. Ask parents about their university-age children and you’re likely to hear them talk about four undergraduate years as a questionable indulgence. The kid will probably need vocational training afterward, a lot of parents say mournfully, to teach them something useful. People have only the vaguest idea what happens in universities, but they’re pretty sure they don’t like it.

When I wrote about the budget crunch at Queen’s last year, a lot of the comments from readers were celebratory. Let it rot, some said. They see nothing useful going on in universities – and they’re pretty sure universities don’t see anything useful going on in Canada.

I’m talking about something similar to what Larry Summers, the former Harvard president, meant when he spoke in February on Yascha Mounk’s podcast The Good Fight about an “enormous estrangement between universities and the broader society.” The Ivy League universities, Dr. Summers said, “have thumbed their nose at what is by far their largest donor” —the U.S. federal government.

Now, it’s great for academics to have a cultural critique about the broader society. It’s hard to imagine a university worth the name that could find no home for that spirit of critique. But monolithic disdain, endorsed by taboo, isn’t a critique. And disdain can be reciprocated, by families and by governments that might otherwise be expected to send children, funding and esteem to institutions of higher education. In the U.S., four Ivy League universities have lost their presidents to resignation in the last year. In Canada, the inevitably wrenching debates over pro-Palestinian encampments might have been easier to weather if Canadians had a stronger pre-existing sense that useful things are happening on campuses besides the theatre of confrontation.

How far can this mutual estrangement between what we used to call Town and Gown go? In July Michelle Rempel Garner, the Conservative MP for Calgary Nose Hill, wrote an astonishing post on her popular Substack newsletter, with the headline, “Major screw-ups at universities should raise questions about their research funding eligibility.” I don’t endorse her argument, but given the company she keeps – a large parliamentary caucus that seems likely to grow in a year or so – it’s probably worth some attention and concern.

“Some Canadian universities have demonstrated management paralysis when faced with no-brainer decisions, and seem incapable of managing basic, foreseeable risk,” Ms. Rempel Garner writes. Exhibit A is the encampments, which she didn’t like, but she has a long list of other grievances. The easiest way to “force” universities “to do better” is to “review the eligibility requirements for the receipt of federal research funds to ensure strong university governance.”

Perhaps, like me, you’re inclined to point out flaws in this plan. Chief among them is the fact that the grants for research go to different people than the ones who decide how to handle a protest. If someday a protest goes poorly at the University of Calgary, for instance, I’m not sure a penalty should properly be lodged against somebody researching childhood cancer at the Alberta Children’s Hospital Research Institute.

In fact, I would say the proposed remedy is terribly misplaced. But my opinion probably matters less these days to Ms. Rempel Garner than that of Pierre Poilievre, her party’s leader. And in 2022, while he was running for the leadership, Poilievre promised to make federal research funding conditional on universities pledging to uphold Charter free speech guarantees.

A government that decided to make it harder for universities to obtain funding would, these days, have plenty of company. The enormous estrangement Dr. Summers described might yet have room to grow. Governments make decisions in the context of public opinion, which means any large institution is always in a battle for the esteem of the population. And for Canadian universities, that battle has already been going the wrong way. For years.

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sarcozona
19 hours ago
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