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The left is cheering for leaders they don’t really believe in

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It is strange to see progressive voters rooting so wholeheartedly for Prime Minister Mark Carney and Hungary's Péter Magyar, leaders who, let’s face it, lean pretty heavily to the right.
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sarcozona
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“In just over one year as prime minister, he has eliminated consumer-based carbon pricing, jettisoned many other Trudeau climate policies, signed an MOU with Alberta for another oil pipeline, adopted tougher bail and sentencing measures, made deep cuts to the civil service and jacked up health care costs for refugees. The day after his byelection victories, Carney announced an almost five-month pause of the fuel excise tax to give voters a break at the gas pumps. That’s a $2.4 billion crowd pleaser that is certain to grow greenhouse gas pollution.”
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Gardens as Emotional and Psychological Support Spaces – The Orkney News

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Private gardens played a vital role in supporting people’s well‑being during the UK’s first Covid‑19 lockdown, when access to public green spaces was significantly restricted.

Researchers from Aberdeen University analysed thousands of posts on Twitter (now X) to understand how people used and talked about their gardens during the Covid-19 crisis.

In the Greater London study area, mentions of garden use increased more than fivefold compared with the previous year, with users far more likely to describe their gardens as places for socialising, relaxation and leisure. References to mental well‑being also rose sharply—from around 4% of posts before lockdown to approximately 20% during lockdown.

a rose fully openedA rose in Edwin Heath’s garden. Image credit Mike Robertson

The research team highlighted how private gardens became important everyday sanctuaries that helped people cope with social isolation, stress and restricted mobility. National surveys conducted at the same time showed a marked decline in mental well‑being across the UK, underscoring the role that access to nature played in people’s resilience during the crisis.

A separate report found that around 82% of UK residents with access to a private garden used it at least weekly during the first lockdown, illustrating the significance of these spaces for day‑to‑day life.

Dr Robert Feller, who carried out the study as part of his PhD in the School of Biological Sciences, said:

profile pic of Robert Feller

“The findings are timely given ongoing policy discussions about the role of nature in supporting public health.

“Using social media posts shared during the first lockdown, this study captures vivid snapshots of daily life: people working outdoors, chatting with family, gardening, watching birds, or simply stepping outside to clear their head after a stressful day.

“Together, these insights reveal the wide range of ways people used their gardens—and the emotional and psychological support these spaces provided.

“Initiatives such as Scotland’s Green Health Partnerships promote the use of natural environments to enhance physical and mental well‑being, while the RHS State of Gardening Report 2025 showed that 77% of gardeners say gardening benefits their mental health. Our research adds further evidence that private gardens can act as crucial everyday spaces for well‑being.

“The study also raises the issue of unequal access to private outdoor space, which may have contributed to disparities in people’s lockdown experiences. Going forward, recognising the value of gardens —including their contribution to mental well-being—could help inform future urban planning, housing design, and public health strategies aimed at strengthening community resilience and improving people’s connection with nature in cities.”

Click on this link to access, Private garden uses and associated mental well-being benefits during the first UK Covid-19 lockdown – a social media investigation, published in PLOSOne

flowers looking up on a sunny day to catch the rays of the sun
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sarcozona
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Carney paused the gas tax to help Canadians. Some say it helps the wrong ones

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Canadian consumers and businesses are feeling the impacts of oil price shocks caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran. But while a pause of the excise fuel tax does offer some relief, it will do so disproportionately for big spenders and leave those with lower incomes to keep struggling.
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sarcozona
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A deadly bacterial disease is returning, doctors warn, as vaccination rates fall

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A scar that runs along the base of Dr. Lara Johnson’s neck serves as a permanent reminder of the devastating effects of a vaccine-preventable disease.

When Johnson was 4 years old, she caught a dangerous, potentially deadly bacterial infection: Haemophilus influenzae type b, commonly called Hib.

The bacteria attacked her epiglottis, the piece of cartilage that covers the windpipe when eating so food doesn’t get into the lungs. Her airway was closing up and she couldn’t swallow.

“I had a fever and felt like I was choking,” recalls Johnson. “I thought I needed to throw up.” She was taken to Covenant Children’s Hospital in Lubbock, Texas, where she now serves as chief medical officer, for an emergency tracheostomy. Doctors had to cut through her neck and into her windpipe so she could breathe. Antibiotics treated her infection, the plastic airway was removed and she recovered.

It was 1980. A Hib vaccine wasn’t available until seven years later.

Prior to the vaccine, about 20,000 children in the United States — mostly babies and toddlers — developed severe forms of Hib every year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Many children were left with permanent brain damage. About 1,000 children died each year.

After vaccinations began, the number of Hib infections dropped to fewer than 50 a year. Many doctors who’ve trained in the past 40 years have never seen a case.

Now, parents who haven’t experienced the frightening effects of the highly contagious and fast-moving infection are increasingly opting out of vaccinating their kids against Hib. Last week, the CDC reported that the percentage of babies who got the full series of Hib shots fell slightly from 2019 to 2021, from 78.8% to 77.6%.

Doctors like Johnson, who a year ago was treating children hospitalized with measles during the West Texas outbreak, are sounding the alarm on Hib, fearing it could be the next vaccine-preventable disease to make a comeback.

“Measles is the beginning,” said Utah’s state epidemiologist, Dr. Leisha Nolen. The state is in the middle of an accelerating measles outbreak, with 559 cases as of Tuesday.

As more people stop vaccinating children against diseases, Hib “is something that we might see soon,” Nolen said. “It’s really tragic to think we’re going to have to go back to having emergency rooms filled with little babies who have this highly, highly deadly and dangerous disease.”

A ‘changing world of medicine’

The CDC does track Hib cases, but the numbers can lag for a year or more because states don’t report cases quickly as they would during acute outbreaks like flu or measles.

As of March 21, the CDC had logged eight cases so far this year: two each in Ohio and New York, plus one case each in Kansas, North Carolina and Tennessee.

Conversations with pediatricians suggest additional Hib cases are occurring and causing severe illness.

Dr. Kathryn Edwards, a vaccine safety expert and professor of pediatrics at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tennessee, said her colleagues recently treated two cases of Hib-related meningitis. Previously, Vanderbilt hadn’t had such a case for “a number of years,” she said.

Dr. Eehab Kenawy, a pediatrician in Panama City, Florida, said that in December, the local hospital’s intensive care unit treated two young children with Hib who were visiting the area from other states. One was a 2-year-old, he said. The other was a 4-month-old who died. “Both were unvaccinated,” he said.

Kenawy didn’t personally treat either child but was on call at the time the patients were there. “I’d never seen a case of Hib for years and years. Now I’m hearing about it.”

The possibility that Hib could make a comeback means that doctors have to start thinking differently — and possibly more aggressively — when a young, unvaccinated patient comes in with what looks like a typical bacterial infection.

“Now I’m not just thinking ‘strep throat, ear infection, upper respiratory infection.’ We have to start thinking about these things as a differential diagnosis in our workup,” Kenawy said. “It puts us in a situation where we may have to do more close observation, possibly more admissions, maybe some unnecessary workup at times. It’s the changing world of medicine.”

What is Hib?

Despite the name, haemophilus influenzae bacteria don’t cause the flu that circulates every winter. They’re bacteria that can live in noses and throats without necessarily causing trouble. Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) is one of several types of the bacteria.

Even people who aren’t sick can spread Hib to others through coughs and sneezes. Sometimes the bacteria cause problems that are relatively easy to treat, like ear infections. They can also cause serious, invasive infections in the lungs, blood stream and joints, as well as the epiglottis like in Johnson’s situation.

It’s Hib’s ability to cause inflammation of the brain and spinal cord — meningitis — that still frightens doctors who remember what it was like treating kids before the vaccine was available. Doctors diagnosed it by doing a lumbar puncture, or spinal tap, to analyze their cerebrospinal fluid.

“When I trained between 1977 and 1980, I would do two to three spinal taps a night,” said Dr. Paul Offit, a pediatrician and director of the Vaccine Education Center at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. Hib was a leading cause of bacterial meningitis in kids under age 5 at the time. “Now pediatric residents in our hospital don’t do spinal taps, which tells you the power of vaccines.”

The CDC recommends three to four Hib shots (depending on which brand they get) for all kids under age 5. Studies have shown the full series is at least 93% effective in preventing the bacterial illness.

It’s not just Hib vaccines that are on the decline. A 2025 NBC News investigation with Stanford University found that childhood vaccination rates overall have fallen in at least 77% of U.S. counties and jurisdictions since 2019.

The number of parents hesitant about vaccines and medicine in general has risen in recent years.

“You’re always going to see people who will ‘no’ to anything, but it’s increasing,” said Dr. Rana Alissa, president of the Florida chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics. “Now we’re almost seeing a free fall.”

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has fueled anti-vaccine sentiments further since becoming health and human services secretary. He’s downplayed measles outbreaks, even after two young girls died last year in Texas. And he led the overhaul of the childhood vaccine schedule — a move that was recently blocked by a federal judge.

Doctors are desperate to undo the damage so that vaccine-preventable diseases remain in the past as much as possible.

“The last night I was a pediatric resident, a child came in with Hib and promptly died by the next day,” said Vanderbilt’s Edwards, whose residency was in the 1970s. “I didn’t work for 50 years to have everything destroyed by one man.”

Ashlee Dahlberg and her son, Liam, who died from bacterial meningitis caused by a Hib infection last April. Courtesy of Ashlee Dahlberg

It’s been almost a year since Ashlee Dahlberg lost her 8-year-old son, Liam, to Hib. On April 24 last year, Liam came home from school complaining of a headache. She said she gave him some ibuprofen, which perked him up temporarily.

When he woke up for school the next day, she said, Liam had spiked a 103 degree fever and “seemed off.”

“He was dizzy and couldn’t stand,” she said. “He was very delirious but he was still able to answer questions correctly.” Doctors at the hospital near their home in Lowell, Indiana, ran tests that suggested Liam might have meningitis and transferred the boy about an hour north to a larger hospital in Chicago.

Liam needed to be sedated so that doctors could do a lumbar puncture for a clear diagnosis. Testing revealed Liam’s body had been invaded by Hib and that it had turned into bacterial meningitis.

By April 26, Dahlberg said, MRI scans showed that her son’s brain had swollen so much that the damage was irreversible. They took him off life support two days later.

Liam and his two sisters had been vaccinated. But his immune system was susceptible to illnesses like Hib, Dahlberg said, because he’d been on an inhaled steroid to treat asthma. She is speaking out about her family’s loss to encourage other families to vaccinate their children to protect kids like Liam — as well as his younger sister who also has asthma.

“What I would really love for other people to understand is that there are people out there who are like my son, who have weakened immune systems,” Dahlberg said. “What may be a cold for your child is a death sentence or a hospitalization for another.”

“I don’t want my youngest to follow in the same footsteps with her health issues that Liam did,” she said. “I would not be able to survive the loss of another child.”

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sarcozona
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Critical Atlantic current significantly more likely to collapse than thought | Oceans | The Guardian

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The critical Atlantic current system appears significantly more likely to collapse than previously thought after new research found that climate models predicting the biggest slowdown are the most realistic. Scientists called the new finding “very concerning” as a collapse would have catastrophic consequences for Europe, Africa and the Americas.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) is a major part of the global climate system and was already known to be at its weakest for 1,600 years as a result of the climate crisis. Scientists spotted warning signs of a tipping point in 2021 and know that the Amoc has collapsed in the Earth’s past.

Climate scientists use dozens of different computer models to assess the future climate. However, for the complex Amoc system, these produce widely varying results, ranging from some that indicate no further slowdown by 2100 to those suggesting a huge deceleration of about 65%, even when carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning are gradually cut to net zero.

The research combined real-world ocean observations with the models to determine the most reliable, and this hugely reduced the spread of uncertainty. They found an estimated slowdown of 42% to 58% in 2100, a level almost certain to end in collapse.

The Amoc is a major part of the global climate system and brings sun-warmed tropical water to Europe and the Arctic, where it cools and sinks to form a deep return current. A collapse would shift the tropical rainfall belt on which many millions of people rely to grow their food, plunge western Europe into extreme cold winters and summer droughts, and add 50-100cm to already rising sea levels around the Atlantic.

Dr Valentin Portmann, at the Inria Centre de recherche Bordeaux Sud-Ouest in France and who led the new research, said: “We found that the Amoc is going to decline more than expected compared to the average of all climate models. This means we have an Amoc that is closer to a tipping point.”

Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said: “This is an important and very concerning result. It shows that the ‘pessimistic’ models, which show a strong weakening of the Amoc by 2100, are, unfortunately, the realistic ones, in that they agree better with observational data.”

He added: “I now am increasingly worried that we may well pass that Amoc shutdown tipping point, where it becomes inevitable, in the middle of this century, which is quite close.”

Rahmstorf, who has studied the Amoc for 35 years, has said a collapse must be avoided “at all costs”. “I argued this when we thought the chance of an Amoc shutdown was maybe 5%, and even then we were saying that risk is too high, given the massive impacts. Now it looks like it’s more than 50%. The most dramatic and drastic climate changes we see in the last 100,000 years of Earth history have been when the Amoc switched to a different state.”

The Amoc is slowing because air temperatures are rising rapidly in the Arctic because of global heating. That means the ocean cools more slowly there. Warmer water is less dense and therefore sinks into the depths more slowly. This slowing allows more rainfall to accumulate in the salty surface waters, also making it less dense, and further slowing the sinking and forming an Amoc feedback loop.

The Amoc system is highly complex and subject to random natural variations, making precise predictions impossible. However, a major weakening is now expected by scientists and that alone could have serious impacts in the decades to come.

The new research, published in the journal Science Advances, explored four different ways of using real-world observations to assess the models. They found a method called ridge regression, which had been little used in climate science before now, provided the best results.

The Amoc is difficult to model because it is governed by subtle differences in water density caused by salinity changes over the entire Atlantic. The reduction in uncertainty in the new analysis results from identifying the models that better reflect surface salinity in the south Atlantic, which scientists already knew was important. This makes the work “very credible”, said Rahmstorf.

Rahmstorf said Amoc slowdown in 2100 may be even greater than in the new, pessimistic assessment. This is because the computer models do not include the meltwater from the Greenland ice cap that is also freshening the ocean waters: “That is one additional factor that means the reality is probably still worse.”

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sarcozona
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Fascinating 1981 interview with Morris Kline, author of the classic book, Mathematics: The Loss of Certainty

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From this 1981 interview:

So when did the loss of certainty begin? Where did we take a wrong turn?

It began around 1800, and it began with geometry. I usually like to quote Mark Twain about this. He said that man is the only animal that has the one true religion—several of them. And that is just what happened with geometry.

The geometry that came from the Greeks is usually called Euclidean geometry, after Euclid. But suddenly at the beginning of the 19th century other geometries were developed—non-Euclidean geometries. Who gets the credit for this is sometimes disputed among historians, but I would say Carl Friedrich Gauss. He was the man who said flatly that we can no longer be sure that Euclidean geometry describes the physical world correctly. The various geometries conflict, although one of them, according to thousands of years of tradition, should describe the truth. You can see the problem.

Can you give me an example of an alternative geometry?

Well, one can cite as an example the theorem of Euclidean geometry that the sum of the angles of a triangle is one hundred eighty degrees. In one of the non-Euclidean geometries, called hyperbolic geometry, the sum is less than one hundred eighty degrees; in another, called double-elliptic non-Euclidean geometry, the sum is always larger than one hundred eighty degrees. Yet all of these geometries are equally accurate insofar as man can measure the sums of angles of triangles.

I actually disagree with Kline on that point! Draw a (virtual) triangle connecting the North Pole to two points on the Equator that are 90 degrees apart in latitude, and each angle of that triangle will be 90 degrees. 90 + 90 + 90 = 270: we can measure that.

The interview continues:

What did the mathematicians do when the bottom dropped out of geometry so to speak?

Many mathematicians tried to rescue and maintain as truths the portion of mathematics built on arithmetic, which by 1850 was far more extensive and vital for science than the several geometries. Unfortunately, other shattering events were to follow. Arithmetic and algebra were the next to go by the board.

The best example of this I could give in a semi-popular book was the creation of what are called quaternions, in 1843, by the great mathematical physicist William Rowan Hamilton. Now in the algebra of quaternions, a kind of number known as a hyper-number, multiplication is not commutative. In other words, if I were talking quaternions, I could not say that three times four is the same as four times three. Other strange algebras were created, and it made people start to worry about the laws of ordinary arithmetic. (The one I just stated is known as the commutative law of multiplication). And if we can have perfectly good algebras in which the old familiar laws don’t work, then how do we know they work in the case of the real numbers? That’s where a mathematician named Hermann von Helmholtz stepped in and told us we don’t know it at all. They work in some situations, but not in all.

Are there any elementary examples of these sorts of algebras, where 2 + 2 = 6, or where 5 x 7 = 35, but 7 x 5 is only 34?

I can think of several. Take a quart of water at 40 degrees and mix it with another quart of water at 50 degrees. Do you get two quarts at 90 degrees? You do not. It’s more like 45 degrees. So you can’t just say I’m going to add 40 and 50 and automatically get 90. It depends on the physical situation.

Consider music, a simple musical tone with a unique frequency and amplitude, say one hundred cycles per second. Now suppose on top of that you impose another note at two hundred cycles per second. Do you get a note at three hundred cycles? Again you do not. It is a note of two hundred cycles, the first harmonic above the one-hundred-cycle note. It is the highest harmonic that determines the pitch—two hundred cycles. This is an important factor in the design of musical instruments.

Those are excellent examples. And recall that the laws of probability do not apply in real life (that is, quantum mechanics; see section 2 of this article).

This is interesting:

If mathematics has no underlying truth–if it is filled with contradictions and uncertainties, why does it work?

There is no definitive answer to that. It just works. The only test we have that mathematics is reliable–not certain, but reliable–is that one can apply its laws to physical problems and make predictions. If the predictions come through, then we can say that mathematics has some substantial basis, but not certainty. I think people can’t help being impressed by what mathematics achieves. Consider the problem of sending a spaceship to the moon and bringing it back. It is entirely mathematical. Of course, there is a tremendous amount of engineering involved in the production of the ship, but the entire plan for it is mathematical. We have a theory about the sun, the planets, and more distant heavenly bodies. We say that what makes them behave as they do is the force of gravity. But nobody knows whether there is such a thing as gravity. We have no physical understanding of it. The theory is mathematical–gravity is a scientific fiction.

The same could be said about electricity and magnetism, couldn’t it?

That’s exactly right. Everybody today knows what a radio is, and what a TV is, but nobody knows what a radio wave or a TV wave is. You can’t smell one or hear one or taste one. But we do have a wonderful mathematical theory developed in the nineteenth century by the mathematical physicist James Clerk Maxwell. The evidence for this wonderful theory is the performance of our radio and TV sets. So we have to accept the fact that mathematics works, or else abandon our radios and our TV sets.

I pretty much agree but I’d put it slightly differently. There are various mathematical theories that don’t work, and because of that we don’t use them to design radios and TV sets. To put it another way, it’s not quite right to say that “mathematics” works; rather, some branches of mathematics work. For example, you could think of various goofy variants of logic and probability as mathematics, but nobody’s using them to build ships. Or, for another example, physicists don’t use classical (“Boltzmann”) probability in quantum problems, because . . . it doesn’t work. The mathematics that works, that’s the stuff that works. Any bit of mathematics works until it doesn’t, which is the point where people try to push it beyond its bounds of applicability.

I enjoyed this bit:

Are most mathematicians since the loss of certainty now working on these physical problems?

No, they aren’t. Most of the mathematics created today–maybe ninety percent of it–is a waste of time. That is an opinion, but one that authorities who are far more creative and far better known share with me.
Can you give us an example of mathematics you consider a waste of time?

Some problems now being considered in the theory of numbers, for example, are a waste of time. Take pairs of primes, called double primes. These are prime numbers in a sequence, eleven and thirteen, for example. No even numbers, of course, are primes. Are there an infinite number of these pairs? Are there triple primes? Endless papers are written about these subjects. Who cares?

That’s how I feel too! That said, I understand that the sorts of insights required to solve this sort of number theory problem are cognitively similar to the sorts of insights required to solve what I would consider to be interesting and important problems in mathematics and statistics. So, even though I agree on “Who cares?”, I don’t think that research in this area is “a waste of time,” any more than it’s a waste of time if you’re an athlete to do cross-training.

The interview continues:

It makes mathematics sound a lot like playing chess or bridge. Exciting, beautiful, challenging; the same words apply to all three kinds of activity.

That’s right. I’m glad you suggested it because it makes the point sharper. People enjoy playing chess. Some people even devote their lives to it. But no matter how ingenious a man is at playing chess or bridge, it isn’t going to change this world one iota. Now mathematicians may probe deeper problems, but it is the same thing.

Again, I kinda feel that Kline is missing the point. For one thing, the effort spent to build programs that can win at chess and go has led to general improvements in machine learning and AI. For better or worse, the study of chess has changed the world, and by more than one iota.

Overall, I’m a big fan of Kline and I like a lot of what’s in that interview, which is one reason it’s interesting to see where we disagree.

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sarcozona
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