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Slight fall in carbon emissions from fossil fuels as Iran war drives renewables push

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However, authors of a comprehensive assessment to be presented at Cop31 warn talk of a global turnaround premature

Soaring oil and gas prices following the war in Iran have encouraged people to look beyond fossil fuels, leading to an easing of climate-damaging carbon emissions this year.

Carbon dioxide from oil, gas and coal is forecast to flatline for 2026, based on data from the year so far, according to a comprehensive assessment by scientists. Emissions from burning oil alone will drop by 2% as drivers economise on fuel use and flock to electric vehicles instead.

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The Bantu expansion changed Africa. Scientists are still tracing how. - Ars Technica

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It’s not easy to extract iron from its ore. But the peoples of the ancient city of Great Zimbabwe—the capital of a thriving kingdom in southern Africa between 1000 to 1700 AD—were masters.

At sites near the city’s stone ruins, clusters of iron-smelting furnaces survive today as mounds of rubble. At Mashava, a village 25 miles northwest, fragments bear fingermarks of those who long ago smoothed the structures’ clay interiors.

Some of the furnaces were nearly an adult’s arm span in width, with walls thick and strong to contain the heat of more than 2,100° Fahrenheit needed to smelt iron. Unlike other furnaces that required workers to force air into them with bellows, these were designed to suck air in, then out through a chimney, no human labor required. This would have made it significantly easier to produce the iron, which was fashioned into hoes, axes, and arrowheads.

“The number and size of these furnaces, together with the use of natural-draft technology, indicate intensive and technologically sophisticated iron production,” says archaeometallurgist Ezekiel Mtetwa of Chicago’s Field Museum of Natural History, who has long studied the furnaces.

Scientists are extremely interested in the peoples who created this and other iron-powered societies across eastern and southern Africa. Research points to an adaptable and innovative group from western Africa as the masterminds. Known as Bantu speakers, these communities began gradually expanding across the continent’s southern half, starting from 6,000 to 4,000 years ago. In doing so, they introduced a fundamentally new, sedentary way of life—characterized by farming, raising livestock, pottery-making, and metalworking—to regions previously dominated by hunter-gatherer communities.

This migration transformed not only the region’s history and technology, but also its languages: Today, around 350 million Africans speak one of roughly 500 distinct Bantu tongues, from southern African Zulu to eastern African Swahili. And at least as many Africans—as well as many African Americans and Afro-Latinos—carry Bantu ancestry in their DNA.

Reconstructing this expansion has been a tough puzzle, especially given the region’s sparse written historical records and limited research funding. But a unique blend of scientists—linguists, archaeologists, and geneticists—have teamed up to unearth clues about the deep origins of the Bantu-speaking people, their path across Africa, and their relationships with other cultures. Although much debate and uncertainty remain, little by little the work is uncovering one of history’s largest and longest human migrations.

“It completely reshaped the demography in sub-Saharan Africa, and we are really interested in trying to understand it,” says population geneticist Sandra Beleza of the United Kingdom’s University of Leicester.

People on the move

The first evidence of the Bantu expansion came from observations of similarities among Bantu languages. They’re so alike, in fact, that when the Portuguese explorer Vasco da Gama sailed around the southern tip of Africa in 1497, a Portuguese crew member who had spent time in west-central Africa could reportedly communicate with locals in southeastern Africa.

Linguists working in the 19th century started referring to the language family as Bantu, the plural of muntu, meaning “human being” in many Bantu tongues. Later linguists reasoned that the languages stemmed from an ancestral people who migrated across the continent from western Africa, which harbors the greatest diversity of Bantu languages (as would be expected for where the languages originated).

Soon, archaeologists found supporting evidence: across eastern and southern Africa, pieces of pottery of similar yet diverse styles, alongside first-time traces of village life, metal-making, domesticated animals, and western African crops—all developed within the last 2,000 years. Northern sites usually dated back to earlier time periods than sites farther south. “You can clearly see a north-to-south progression,” says archaeological scientist Shadreck Chirikure of the University of Oxford.

By the 1990s, however, some scholars began to question the idea that Bantu languages and skills spread through a migration. Couldn’t these cultural habits have spread while people stayed in the same place, with hunter gatherer communities passing along new technologies, languages, and habits to each other?

Genetic techniques that could analyze people’s ancestry helped to resolve that debate. All of us share DNA with our relatives: 50 percent on average with siblings, 12.5 percent with cousins, 3.3 percent with second cousins, and so on. Though these proportions become minute the further back in time a shared common ancestor lived, statistical techniques can tease out patterns.

Sure enough, a 2009 genetic analysis of 2,432 Africans found that Bantu-speaking people from western, central, and southern Africa are much more closely related than one might expect given their geographic distance. And in 2024, a team of scientists analyzed the genomes of 1,763 Africans and found the greatest genetic diversity among Bantu speakers in western Africa. As distance from the region increased, diversity declined. “This is a typical signature of a population expanding from one place to another,” explains coauthor Carina Schlebusch, a geneticist at Uppsala University in Sweden.

Roughly 350 million people across sub-Saharan Africa speak one of roughly 500 Bantu languages—from Swahili in eastern Africa to Xhosa spoken in southern Africa.
Roughly 350 million people across sub-Saharan Africa speak one of roughly 500 Bantu languages—from Swahili in eastern Africa to Xhosa spoken in southern Africa. Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Mysterious roots

But while linguistic and genetic data point to western Africa—particularly the Grassfields region of Cameroon—as the Bantu homeland, conclusive archaeological proof is thin. At the best-studied archaeological site in the Grassfields, a rock shelter called Shum Laka, pottery fragments appear dating from 7,000 to 6,000 years ago and become abundant by 5,000 to 4,000 years ago. Bowls and jars at first decorated simply with incisions and stamps and later bearing the marks of carved or braided tools rolled over wet clay are a possible, yet inconclusive, trace of Bantu ancestors.

South of Cameroon, archaeologists have searched for artifacts in one of the Bantu-speaking people’s first destinations: the Congo rainforest. A handful of times between 2010 and 2023, archaeologist Alexandre Livingstone Smith of Belgium’s Royal Museum for Central Africa traveled via boat along the Congo River as part of a team led by linguist Birgit Ricquier. In a number of villages, Smith found pottery shards of a style consistent with that found farther west, dating back to 2,300 to 2,000 years ago. “That would be the potential first Bantu settlers of the forest,” Smith says.

Many experts interpret the trails of pottery as evidence that ceramics traditions were brought by Bantu-speaking people all the way from their original home. What’s unclear, however, is when and how Bantu-speaking peoples acquired their farming and metalworking skills—and, in particular, whether they invented iron smelting themselves or learned it from neighboring, iron-extracting cultures.

Scientists have been able to deduce the path that Bantu speakers took to eastern and southern Africa. Some scholars have argued that the path split into two before entering the Congo rainforest, with one group heading east while another went south through the forest. But evidence is now mounting that these groups crossed the rainforest together, and only upon reaching its southern fringes roughly 2,500 to 3,500 years ago did they split into east-moving and southward-moving groups.

Some of this evidence comes from linguistic studies. Not unlike the evolution of species, languages diverge and transform over time, creating “trees” that linguists can reconstruct from similarities in grammar and vocabulary. In 2015, a group of researchers did this computationally using data from about 400 Bantu languages. They observed a much larger diversity—and deeper splits—among the Bantu languages spoken in the Congo rainforest, suggesting that Bantu-speaking ancestors spent a long time there, allowing their languages to diversify. Languages spoken farther east and farther south appeared to stem from a less diverse subset of this larger group, explains coauthor Koen Bostoen, a linguist at Belgium’s Ghent University.

Later linguistic studies, as well as genetic analyses, have reached similar conclusions. In 2023, Beleza and her colleagues compared the genomes of Bantu speakers from Angola—south of the Congo rainforest—with those from the eastern African country of Mozambique and ones from Cameroon, the Bantu homeland.

Remarkably, the eastern African samples were more genetically similar to those from Angola, hundreds of miles to the south of Cameroon and south of the rainforest, than to any of the samples from Cameroon. That points to a recent common ancestor in the Angola region—suggesting that the Bantu split into eastern and southern streams only once they reached the rainforest’s southern edge, Beleza explains.

By the time the Bantu people commenced their movement east and south, they had already come into their own as a farming, iron-making, livestock-herding, and pottery-making people, Chirikure says: Many ancient Bantu settlements across eastern and southern Africa contain evidence of this Bantu “package.”

Mixing and mingling

Key to the Bantu’s success in southern and eastern Africa, experts suspect, was their sedentary lifestyle. This—and their iron tools—would have allowed them to produce more food and grow in number, propelling them to occupy new territories. Their lifestyle affected the landscape as forests turned into farmland, and it also affected the hunter-gatherer communities who were already living there. Some groups were likely crowded out and disappeared, experts suspect, while others were probably pushed to marginal regions, including Indigenous groups such as rainforest hunter-gatherers and Khoisan peoples, who continue to live in central and southern Africa, respectively, to this day.

Still, scientists are learning that Bantu peoples had deep relationships with these two groups. In the 2024 genetic analysis, Schlebusch and her colleagues found that some Bantu-speaking groups in central Africa share about an eighth of their DNA with rainforest hunter-gatherers, and some southern African Bantu speakers share a similar amount with Khoisan groups. Clearly, their ancestors once intermixed.

Curiously, in the case of the Khoisan, this mixing tended to arise from pairings of Bantu-speaking men with Khoisan women. One 2021 study of southern African Bantu speakers found that the DNA inside their mitochondria—which people inherit only from their mothers—had greater-than-expected proportions of Khoisan DNA. But the Y chromosomes, which come from fathers, had much higher proportions of DNA with Bantu ancestry. Some experts speculate that this pattern could be the result of Bantu men raiding Khoisan women or preferentially marrying Khoisan women for whom the traditional bride prices would have been cheaper. “Whenever there is a power difference… between two groups, it tends to melt down to this,” says coauthor Ananyo Choudhury, a geneticist at the University of Witwatersrand in South Africa.

This pattern also left marks on the language. The characteristic clicks of Khoisan languages also occur in southern African Bantu languages Zulu and Khosa. Bostoen suspects that the children of Khoisan-Bantu pairings were, at first, bilingual. Eventually, “they lost their mothers’ languages, but they left a substrate of the mothers’ languages in the Bantu language.”

Archaeologists are also studying the relationships between Bantu farmers and their neighbors. While there may have been conflicts over land, the groups also cooperated with and learned from one another, says Décio Muianga, an archaeologist at Eduardo Mondlane University and the research institute Kaleidoscopio in Maputo, Mozambique. He’s been excavating a rock shelter in Mozambique containing thousands of years’ worth of stone tools, wild animal bones, and wild plant remains—telltale signs of hunter-gatherers living at the site. But interestingly, Bantu-style pottery also appears. “My assumption is that the hunter-gatherers were getting these ceramics from the farmers,” Muianga says. “They were interacting, communicating, and exchanging resources.”

There is evidence, too, for cultural exchanges: European anthropologists have reported that some Bantu-speaking groups would solicit San hunter-gatherers to conduct traditional rainmaking ceremonies, for example.

Bantu social networks eventually extended well beyond Africa. By 1100 to 1600 AD, many of the complex state societies that Bantu speakers built developed trade networks across the Indian Ocean. Archaeological data shows they imported Chinese porcelain and glass beads; in return, they exported gold, ivory, and iron. In fact, a 12th century Muslim cartographer once wrote that iron from parts of southern Africa—likely referring to Great Zimbabwe’s iron-producing hinterlands, Mtetwa suspects—was deemed to be of much higher quality than that from other places like India.

Mtetwa has found evidence that iron smelters near Great Zimbabwe would add bone fragments to the furnaces, perhaps as part of a smelting-blessing ritual, but one with scientific merit: This material contains calcium, which can accelerate the separation of iron from the rest of the ore. That may be a testament to the Great Zimbabweans’ iron-smelting skills: “Some materials introduced within ritual or medicinal practices may simultaneously have had technically beneficial effects on the smelt,” says Mtetwa.

Though they’ve made great progress in reconstructing the Bantu world, scientists are aware of, and trying to address, the limitations of their research so far.

Linguistic studies, for instance, have been a popular tool to reconstruct Bantu history, but Bostoen cautions that very few Bantu languages have been documented thoroughly enough to definitively trace linguistic trees back in time. Linguists may never get a complete dataset, because some old branches of the Bantu language family may have died out.

Another limitation of computational Bantu language-family reconstructions is that they’ve usually assumed that languages have evolved in isolation after different Bantu groups separated. But there may have been extensive cross-pollination among languages as different groups met and interacted.

In fact, when linguists factored in the possibility of contact among Bantu languages in a 2026 study, they couldn’t reconstruct the diversification patterns described by previous linguists, says coauthor Igor Yanovich of the University of Vienna, who wrote about the challenges of Bantu linguistic studies in the 2025 Annual Review of Linguistics. In his view, linguists should first focus on thoroughly documenting Bantu languages before attempting to use them to understand Bantu history.

In hopes of adding new insights, Schlebusch is working to obtain DNA from ancient human remains. By revealing the identity of people who were living in particular places at particular times, this could help to elucidate when and where different Bantu communities moved into, overlapped with, or repopulated areas. “What we see more and more in genetic data is that the movement was probably complex—that it was these ‘spread over spread’ events,” Schlebusch says.

Archaeologists, for their part, hope to fill in the vast gaps in the archaeological record of sub-Saharan Africa—by both conducting new excavations and re-examining existing artifact collections for fresh insights. But all this work requires funding for research and laboratories, especially from African governments, says Chirikure; he, like many of his colleagues, has largely relied on funding from Europe, which is limited. Without more funding, “you are not generating fresh ideas, you are not formulating new hypotheses and testing them using some of the cutting-edge science,” he says.

Scientists from all three disciplines are hopeful that they will eventually tell the complete story of how an innovative people spread and diversified across sub-Saharan Africa, mixing traditions with those of earlier peoples and of others who still live there, to create myriad cultures, each one a unique blend of food, philosophy, language, music, and traditions. “If you travel from West Africa today all the way to East Africa, you have a unique cultural diversity that is very hard to find in many other parts of the world,” Muianga says. Combined with the legacy of other groups, he says, “this is the result of the Bantu migration.”

This story originally appeared in Knowable Magazine.

Knowable Magazine, 2026. DOI: 10.1146/knowable-110326-1″ (About DOIs).

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Devaluation, not work-life balance, drives women out of academic careers

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For decades, the leaked pipeline of academic careers has been explained away by one convenient narrative: women leave science because balancing a laboratory with a family is too hard, and motherhood arrives precisely when the tenure clock is ticking. That story has shaped funding priorities, institutional policies and countless mentoring workshops. But a sweeping new study published in PNAS Nexus suggests the story has been wrong at its root. Katie Spoon and colleagues surveyed thousands of current and former tenure-line faculty across 29 academic fields and nearly all PhD-granting institutions in the United States, and their findings point to a quieter, more corrosive force: women in academia are devalued, and that devaluation is what pushes them toward the exit.

The scale of the investigation gives the result unusual weight. Rather than sampling a handful of disciplines or a single institutional tier, the researchers captured responses from faculty spanning STEM and non-STEM fields, close to 300 campuses, and every stratum of institutional prestige. Respondents included people still on the tenure line and people who had already walked away, which allowed the team to compare not only why faculty consider leaving but also why they actually do. Participants were asked a deceptively simple question: what would need to change about your position to reduce your stress, or, for those who had departed, what would have kept you in it?

The answers revealed a stark asymmetry. Thirty-eight percent of women reported experiencing devaluation, compared with just 16 percent of men. In other words, women were more than twice as likely as their male colleagues to describe being discounted, undermined or forced to justify their standing. When the researchers mapped which topics best predicted departures, devaluation stood out as the factor most strongly associated both with women considering leaving and with women actually leaving. Work-life concerns, long the centerpiece of retention policy, did not occupy that position.

What makes the finding especially difficult to dismiss is its consistency. The gendered pattern of devaluation held across STEM and non-STEM disciplines alike, suggesting that the problem is not a peculiarity of laboratory culture or of any single field’s norms. It held across nearly 300 institutions, meaning it cannot be attributed to a few badly run departments. And it held at every level of institutional prestige, from elite research universities to less celebrated campuses, indicating that resources and reputation do not shield women from the experience of being undervalued.

The pattern also grew worse with time, not better. Devaluation was the only topic in the analysis that became more gendered as careers progressed. Among early-career faculty, the gender gap in reported devaluation stood at 19 percentage points. Among late-career faculty, that gap had widened to 31 points. This trajectory inverts the usual assumption about academic life, in which seniority confers security, authority and freedom from scrutiny. Instead, women who had climbed the full ladder to the top of their professions still reported having to justify their professional standing, as if decades of achievement had not settled the question.

The survey’s open-ended responses put raw personal experience behind the numbers. One senior Black woman in the social sciences described having to justify each year why a course release was required for her to properly run her program, while a male colleague directing another program was freely offered what she had to fight to keep. A senior white woman in social work wrote that she had fought for every raise she had ever received, and that the struggle had convinced her over time that the university did not have her back. She added a conditional note that captures what retention might actually require: if she could see leaders in higher education trying to solve these problems in earnest and at scale, she might be tempted to stay.

These testimonies illuminate the technical distinction at the heart of the study’s argument. Work-life balance interventions, such as parental leave, childcare support and flexible scheduling, address external constraints on a career. Devaluation is different: it is a condition of the workplace itself, an ongoing pattern in which women’s contributions are discounted, their requests resisted and their authority questioned. The two problems can coexist, but the data indicate that only one of them tracks so tightly with gender that it explains why women leave at higher rates than men. Policies aimed at flexibility alone may therefore leave the decisive factor untouched.

The intersectional dimension of the findings sharpens the picture further. The effect of devaluation was strongest for women of color, who face layered forms of discounting that neither race nor gender analyses alone can capture. For this group, the experience of having to fight for accommodations and recognition that colleagues receive without asking appears compounded. Any serious retention strategy, the results imply, must be designed with this heterogeneity in mind rather than treating women in academia as a uniform population with a single shared obstacle.

The longitudinal texture of the data, showing a gap that widens from 19 to 31 points across career stages, also carries a warning about timing. If devaluation accumulates rather than fades, interventions aimed only at early-career women, such as the mentoring and onboarding programs many institutions favor, may arrive too early to matter for the departure decisions of mid-career and senior faculty, who are precisely the people whose exit erodes institutional role models and leadership diversity. Retention policy, the authors suggest, needs to address the conditions of senior women’s everyday professional lives, not just the entry pipeline.

According to the authors, the results provide a basis for action by policymakers and institutions hoping to improve equity in academic retention. The actionable content of the study lies in its diagnostic clarity: if the question posed to faculty is what would reduce stress or prevent departure, and the most gendered and most predictive answer is devaluation, then institutions know where to look. Leadership accountability, equitable distribution of course releases and raises, and visible, large-scale institutional commitment to the problem are the directions the evidence points toward. As the survey itself makes clear, the women who remain in academia are watching for that commitment, and for many of them it may be the difference between staying and going.

Subject of Research: Gendered faculty attrition and devaluation in U.S. academia

Article Title: Devaluation, not work-life balance, underlies the academic gender gap

Article References: Devaluation, not work-life balance, underlies the academic gender gap. (n.d.). Original publication

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: Not provided

Keywords: academic gender gap, faculty attrition, devaluation, PNAS Nexus, work-life balance, women in STEM, higher education, retention policy, intersectionality, survey research, tenure, institutional equity

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China’s Economy Is Nearly $20 Trillion, But Its Citizens Remain Relatively Poor - Bloomberg

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China’s leadership will soon claim a milestone it has chased since Deng Xiaoping’s 1978 landmark economic reforms: membership in the rich world. The nation’s per capita income is nearing the World Bank’s threshold for high-income countries and should cross it within a year or two of the 25th anniversary of its accession to the World Trade Organization. That 2001 deal turned a $1.3 trillion economy into one approaching $20 trillion, and exports have since multiplied roughly 13-fold, earning China the title of “factory for the world.”

In 2021, President Xi Jinping triumphantly declared that the rising tide had lifted all boats — the Communist Party had won “complete victory” over absolute poverty — and pledged to pursue “common prosperity” for all. China does deserve credit: Since 1978 it has lifted close to 800 million people out of extreme poverty, three-quarters of the global total, according to the World Bank. But to claim that victory, Beijing used a poverty line of about $2.30 a day, which critics contend is too low.

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Haitian boy, 8, detained during scheduled immigration appointment | KPBS Public Media

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An 8-year-old Haitian boy is in federal custody after showing up for a scheduled immigration appointment earlier this week.

The incident was documented on video Wednesday by Karen Pohl, a volunteer immigration court observer with the group Detention Resistance. She said she’s never seen someone that young being detained before.

“It was just — I couldn't believe what I was seeing because I had never watched a child by himself get detained in that manner,” Pohl said.

The incident was upsetting to watch, she said.

“This is kind of like war,” Pohl, a retired Navy veteran, said. “And you just do what you got to do and deal with the emotion later because these people need us. There’s nobody else that’s witnessing how they’re being targeted and abused.”

The boy had been living with his uncle in City Heights after his father was deported in March 2025.

According to a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) spokesperson, the uncle did not have legal custody.

In accordance with the Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act, the spokesperson said the boy was considered an unaccompanied minor.

“Out of an abundance of caution and to ensure the child’s safety, ICE determined it was best to remove the child from the household and place him in the care of the Office of Refugee Resettlement,” the spokesperson said.

Cody Petterson, a board trustee with the San Diego Unified School District (SDUSD), said the uncle was designated on school records as an authorized caregiver.

“I am not surprised ICE would say just about anything to justify their actions,” he said.

While he does not know the full details on who has legal custody of the boy, he said the uncle was someone the father entrusted his child to.

“This is a classic case of legalized lawlessness, where these agencies will attempt to use the law to actually further what is essentially a lawless activity,” Petterson said. “There is no question that the best place for this child was with the uncle that their father had designated as the guardian.”

In a three-page letter to Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin and Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., SDUSD and other local officials are demanding the federal government release the boy back to his uncle’s custody so that he could continue his education with familiar “schools, teachers, classmates and support systems.”

“We demand the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) and the ORR change its policies and procedures affecting school-aged children who enter government custody or placement,” the letter said. “At a minimum, greater consideration should be given to the educational continuity of these students.”

Wister Gaetan, the co-founder of the Haitian Bridge Alliance, said the boy should be doing what boys his age are doing, going to school and playing with other kids. He said the boy should be returned to his family.

“This kid was in a setting that provided him with love, (brought) him to school and a path to education,” Gaetan said. “Sitting behind bars with the U.S. government is purely unacceptable, a violation of his due process rights and civil liberty.”

San Diego City Councilmember Sean Elo-Rivera, who also posted the information on Instagram on Thursday, is calling for the restoration of temporary protected status for Haitians.

“We're in this situation because of a decision to end a program that did not need to be ended, that should not have been ended,” he said.

The family is working on resolving the custody issue.

Meanwhile, the district said it will provide crisis counselors for students at Fay Elementary School, where the boy attended.

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Ships loiter near subsea cables amid Iran's warnings to Trump

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Iran threatened to attack subsea cables if US escalates military strikes again.

Oil tanker at sea with Iranian flag as background. Credit: Anton Petrus

Several tanker ships linked to Iran have been loitering over subsea Internet cables in the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz—a possible indication that the Iranian government is preparing to attack such undersea infrastructure in response to any renewed US and Israeli strikes.

The movements of three sanctioned tankers and an Iranian fishing boat have been tracked near major undersea cables by the maritime intelligence firm Windward in October, according to the Financial Times. Six active cables currently cross through the contested Strait of Hormuz, linking the Middle East to Europe, Africa and Asia, with two more cables having segments under construction in the region.

Four countries, including Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar, depend entirely upon such subsea telecommunications connections running through the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint to link with the outside world. But other countries also depend heavily on the region’s undersea cable network—one third of India’s westbound Internet traffic goes through the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

One cable under construction, the 2Africa cable, is owned by a tech consortium that includes the US company Meta. That was one of the major cable corridors visited by the drifting Iran-linked ships.

Windward used both ship-tracking data and satellite images to track the vessels as they slowed down and looped around near multiple cables, with some ships then “going dark” by switching off their automatic identification system (AIS) transponders that normally broadcast their location and other information.

Such movement and behavioral patterns suggest the Iran-linked ships may be “mapping the cable routes, or placing charges or mines on them while dark,” Windward told the Financial Times.

Windward highlighted the examples of two sanctioned tankers linked to Iran that spent days drifting “directly over regional cable corridors… both with no commercial reason to stop” in a blog post on October 26. Both ships carried no commercial cargo.

Multi-colored lines running through a map representing the Strait of Hormuz show undersea Internet cable routes.

Multicolored lines show undersea Internet cable routes running through the Strait of Hormuz.

Multicolored lines show undersea Internet cable routes running through the Strait of Hormuz. Credit: TeleGeography

Threats of cable fees and attacks

Since the US and Israel first launched a major war with Iran in February 2026, Iran’s response beyond targeting US military bases, ships and aircraft has included attacking commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and hitting oil refineries and other energy infrastructure along with airports in various Gulf countries.

Iran has also made a point of threatening or attacking US Big Tech infrastructure in the Middle East, including launching multiple drone strikes on Amazon data centers. In May 2026, a spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed Iran would “impose fees on Internet cables” belonging to US tech companies and other owners.

But more recently, multiple Iranian officials and commanders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have warned that they could directly attack the undersea cables running through the Strait of Hormuz. This came after President Donald Trump repeatedly threatened to renew major US military strikes on Iran and warned he could “annihilate” the country during a speech at the United Nations in New York on September 22.

“Seven major cables run through the Strait of Hormuz, supporting global Internet operations and commercial data transmission,” one IRGC spokesperson said on October 20. “We remind the enemy of this.”

The latest phase of the war has involved more limited US military strikes against Iranian targets, even as Trump has alternated between threats and touting the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough. Meanwhile, Iran has increased drone strikes and other attacks on commercial ships to exert its own pressure on the United States, with October marking the highest number of ship attacks since the war began.

Much damage has already been done. The limited fleet of cable-laying ships used for installation and repair has not been able to venture safely into the region since the war began, which forced the Meta-backed 2Africa cable to pause its planned expansion. The war has also compelled US tech companies and Gulf countries to accelerate efforts to develop alternative cable routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

The Middle East is not the only part of the world where threats to the Internet’s undersea backbone have intensified. Subsea infrastructure is increasingly at risk from sabotage and gray-zone warfare from the Baltic Sea to the Pacific Ocean.

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Jeremy Hsu is a reporter exploring a wide range of topics across deep tech and AI. He has previously written for New Scientist, Scientific American, IEEE Spectrum, Wired, Undark Magazine and MIT Tech Review, among many other publications, about topics such as deepfakes, data centers, drones, battery tech, robotics, and GPS jamming. He also has a Master of Arts in Journalism from NYU, and a bachelor's degree from University of Pennsylvania in History and Sociology of Science, with a minor in English.

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